Ok so maybe we should see a decline in these averages over the next couple of years?
There was a small drop in death from chronic lower respiratory illnesses in 2020. Like 5k. Maybe we'll see a similar decline in other causes of death?
The bulk of the age cohort was spread out over like 20 years, 700k people as of now, so your straight average would be 35k/year over 20 years? Probably be higher at first and then tail off but even 50k to start spread out over all the cancer/respiratory/heart etc causes of death is going to be a few thousand here, several thousand there.
But maybe surviving Covid has/will exacerbate the comorbidities in the people who died/will die, and there'll be more than a couple year offset? Maybe stroke and heart disease increased in 2020 because people who survived Covid but were going to live a few more years wound up spending weeks immobile on life support (or just less active due to quarantine) and their blood pump was much more feeble? Or Ahlzheimers deaths went up slightly because people had less company/mental stimulation?
I don't know how straightforward the numbers will be in the future.
There could be a cold winter and a shitty flu season where Texas gets hit by another 100 year snowstorm and the ones who can't get to Cancun run out of cowboy boots and hats to burn to stay warm, and one by one they freeze to death, starting with the Covid survivors with weakened cardiopulmonary whatnot?
A Cat 5 could hit God's Waiting Room, aka East Central Florida, and there might be a white Katrina but with even worse swimming and even MOAR alligators and guns. There could be an F5 twister up in The Villages - did you know The Villages is ~2800 people per square mile and therefore a fairly urban area?
2800 people per square mile 80k geezers deep orbiting an F5 vortex is a lot of people to die of the beetus with radar-visible biomass and debris orbiting a hook echo at 260+ mph comorbidities.