How’s the stock market?

[casa_mugrienta]

The market went up because in the FOMC meeting, there was an indication that they might slow the pace of the rate hikes going forward.

You were previously banging the drum that the Fed is not being aggressive enough in hiking rates.

Inflation is near 8% (16% by the old measure).

For the past year.

Doesn't sound like they really made a dent. Does it sound like that to you?

Therefore, if they think they can slow down, that would make their line of thinking wishful thinking.

BangBangBang!

I think a reactionary Fed is problematic vs a proactive Fed.

A reactionary Fed is why we've had 8% inflation for the past year.

Browsing through the minutes it doesn't look like they see inflation abating.

 

[PRCD]

Yeah, we survived until now, but 8% inflation will be the end to us all.

I can't believe they're admitting this:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1595424975292452867

Everything the critics said about MMT was true.

 

[Sharkbiscuit]

FED DON'T WANT INFLATIONSHIT
FED JUST WANT
BANGBANGBANG

 

[casa_mugrienta]

Everything the critics said about MMT was true.

DOOM AND GLOOMER!!!!!

 

[Bob]

MCK, my gift to you!

 

[Your Moms Dildo]

MCK, my gift to you!

And, STD, my gift to you, too.

 

[Bob]

And, STD, my gift to you, too.

My gift is real. Your gift is hope. Hope rarely pays.

 

[Northern_Shores]

I can't believe they're admitting this:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1595424975292452867

Everything the critics said about MMT was true.

QE is retard science. I remember after 08 I never liked what the FED was doing. When you inteverne in a market there's always gonna be a squeeze in some other way. In this case it was free money fun, then get smoked by inflation down the road.

 

[casa_mugrienta]

I think FCFS might be worth grabbing.

It's a pawn shop chain that's international and pays a dividend.

Pretty sure it's unique for it's kind - I've searched quite a bit and haven't found anything like it.

As a bonus, they also run payday loans in Texas and melt scrap jewelry.

I like both the pawn exposure - they tend to do well in recessions and I'm sure there's plenty of stuff people bought with stimmy checks they'll be looking to pawn.

I like the exposure to payday loans too - household savings just hit their lowest level since 2008 and credit card spending has made a big jump as well.

Check out EZPW too. The financials aren't as impressive as FCFS but historically looks like there could be some upside.

View attachment 130873

Just checking back in. If you took my advice this past summer you should be doing OK.

 

[INDTUBE]

2023 will be the worst year for the stock market in my lifetime. Cash is king right now - I have been out of the stock market (except for private investments) since the moment Biden won the election and will not look to get back in until I see the that the Fed indicates it will begin to lower interest rates. 18-24 months away.

 

[Subway]

I intend to buy real estate and cheap stonk in 2023

 

[INDTUBE]

I intend to buy real estate and cheap stonk in 2023

I think waiting until mid to late 2024 will be a better time frame - I plan to do the same thing - the key is the Fed indication of lowing interest rates - thats the signal to get in.

 

[Subway]

I think waiting until mid to late 2024 will be a better time frame - I plan to do the same thing - the key is the Fed indication of lowing interest rates - thats the signal to get in.

ok I'll just do my normal 401 k front load, get that max out of the way by Feb 20th. But i want to buy that half acre and cottage/outbuildings in Killard before somebody else grabs it. And to do that, I need to muster all of my Q1 commission checks and move fast. but that's an investment both financial AND personal- i want to live there 3 months a year at least.

And in several years or so (it's already well under way), that stretch of Irish coast will be the Hamptons of Ireland- it almost is, the prices just haven't caught up yet (although to the locals, the prices seem extravagant and I told them "you aint seen nothin yet".) And not only are they not "making any more coastline" but the Irish development laws are so strict in rural counties that one can never again cut a new home site- you can only renovate or rebuild existing structures, and brother, I sh!t you not when I tell you our closest neighbors, if and when we buy this cottage, will be 500 meters away in either direction, and the Atlantic ocean 500 meters to the west of our cottage, with nothing but cow pastures full of liberty caps and ancient stone walls surrounding all of it

 

[Mr Doof]

Offhand, for the Ireland land purchase, have you looked into weather trends?

 

[hammies]

I intend to buy real estate and cheap stonk in 2023

I am thinking mild recession in 2023 followed by recovery in 2024.

 

[Subway]

Offhand, for the Ireland land purchase, have you looked into weather trends?

yes. It never gets hot, and it never drops below 40. I like the wind and rain. Imagine a yoga studio in a beautifully renovated old stone barn, maybe with 2 big windows added for visual drama, with that magical and unpredictable Irish weather and views surrounding you. the space heated by a big Peat-fueled fireplace (and actual modern heating, because, 21st century)

I particularly loved when the sun's out, the wind is moderate, then out of nowhere a cloud shows up "spits" at you for a few minutes, then departs leaving nothing but blue skies and a rainbow. It's a dream

And, pro-tip: Irish weather isn't nearly as bad as its reputation. Ask any local and they will tell you it rains FAR less than foreigners assume. We were there 11 days, and only had 1 truly rainy day. had a few spits and sprinkles on a few other days, but mostly had blue skies and rainbows and unicorns to carry our luggage

Finally- i plan on spending probably 6+ months a year in Nicaragua, so going to Ireland from Sept-Nov will be our "winter" where we take a break from the tropical heat. December will probably be NY to visit friends and family. Jan/Feb- choose your own adventure. And back to Nica in March.

Sound good? Life goals: set. Financial goals needed to achieve aforementioned life goals: set

Achievement of said financial goals? maybe 5-7 more years

 

[SurfFuerteventura]

Need anyone to watch the Nica hacienda and maybe do some mild psycotropic "gardening"....

 

[Subway]

Need anyone to watch the Nica hacienda and maybe do some mild psycotropic "gardening"....

probably for a couple months a year yes. Live on site and manage/host the vacationers renting the guest suites?

 

[INDTUBE]

ok I'll just do my normal 401 k front load, get that max out of the way by Feb 20th. But i want to buy that half acre and cottage/outbuildings in Killard before somebody else grabs it. And to do that, I need to muster all of my Q1 commission checks and move fast. but that's an investment both financial AND personal- i want to live there 3 months a year at least.

And in several years or so (it's already well under way), that stretch of Irish coast will be the Hamptons of Ireland- it almost is, the prices just haven't caught up yet (although to the locals, the prices seem extravagant and I told them "you aint seen nothin yet".) And not only are they not "making any more coastline" but the Irish development laws are so strict in rural counties that one can never again cut a new home site- you can only renovate or rebuild existing structures, and brother, I sh!t you not when I tell you our closest neighbors, if and when we buy this cottage, will be 500 meters away in either direction, and the Atlantic ocean 500 meters to the west of our cottage, with nothing but cow pastures full of liberty caps and ancient stone walls surrounding all of it

Sounds like a great plan! - I am interested in something very similar eventually just have not found the right location yet. I think I sold you a Griffin Cheater quad when I lived back in New York ( you came to my office across from Penn station). I can get Irish citizenship - my cousins have already done it and said the process is fairly easy. tell me more and do you need a partner.

 

[Mr Doof]

yes. It never gets hot, and it never drops below 40. I like the wind and rain. Imagine a yoga studio in a beautifully renovated old stone barn, maybe with 2 big windows added for visual drama, with that magical and unpredictable Irish weather and views surrounding you. the space heated by a big Peat-fueled fireplace (and actual modern heating, because, 21st century)

I particularly loved when the sun's out, the wind is moderate, then out of nowhere a cloud shows up "spits" at you for a few minutes, then departs leaving nothing but blue skies and a rainbow. It's a dream

And, pro-tip: Irish weather isn't nearly as bad as its reputation. Ask any local and they will tell you it rains FAR less than foreigners assume. We were there 11 days, and only had 1 truly rainy day. had a few spits and sprinkles on a few other days, but mostly had blue skies and rainbows and unicorns to carry our luggage

Am more curious about trends (last 20 yrs versus climate (500 yr average?)

Which zone?





After some CA friends moved to Oregon and Washington (west of Cascades), about 2-3 yrs in, I asked about the weather and if it is like they expected.

The most common sort of answer is along these lines:

"A lot more forest fire smoke than we thought there would be, hotter in summer too. And the rain isn't so bad, it is the gray skies that suck."

Growing up, forest fires weren't really much of a thing in Western Oregon. They've really come on strong in last 20 yrs, also small town water systems haven't kept up with demand.