How’s the stock market?

Subway

Administrator
Staff member
Dec 31, 2008
13,519
10,168
113
LBNY
f$%k here I saw "AFOAF has replied to the stock market thread" and I thought here we go, homie's gonna light me up all over again for talking about the piece of Ireland I want to buy next year :)
 

Sharkbiscuit

Duke status
Aug 6, 2003
26,586
19,511
113
Jacksonville Beach
f$%k here I saw "AFOAF has replied to the stock market thread" and I thought here we go, homie's gonna light me up all over again for talking about the piece of Ireland I want to buy next year :)
On the contrary, now someone is acting like you're buying a van to drive to Centro when we both know you're more likely to buy a G6.
 
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INDTUBE

Legend (inyourownmind)
Nov 6, 2019
352
551
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I thought I could get citizenship for a hot minute, but then I realized I was one generation off.
All you need to be able to do is trace your grandparents back to home town they came from - Both sets of my grandparents were immigrants from IRELAND that came thru Elis Island - with the exception of my dads dad who grew up in an orphanage in London from the age of 2 came the US when he was 14 years olds as a stowaway on a steamer coming to the US - the original illegal immigrant.
 
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Bob Dobbalina

Miki Dora status
Feb 23, 2016
4,309
4,718
113
All you need to be able to do is trace your grandparents back to home town they came from - Both sets of my grandparents were immigrants that came thru Elis Island - with the exception of my dads dad who grew up in an orphanage in London from the age of 2 came the US when he was 14 years olds as a stowaway on a steamer coming to the US - the original illegal immigrant.

My grandparents on my moms side were both born in NY or Jersey, I can't remember.

Their parents were also born here.

Their grandparents were born in Ireland.

I was a generation off.

My dads side, I know less about. Scottish and something else European.
 
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Bob

Michael Peterson status
Apr 23, 2001
2,823
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Oxnard
Has anyone that spends time on here bought the stock tip I gave?
"Has been one of the best stocks of 2022!"
I'm not saying it again. Just follow all the fools on here.
 
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INDTUBE

Legend (inyourownmind)
Nov 6, 2019
352
551
93
Historically - when the Fed is in an inflationary interest raising environment they tend to over do it and overshoot their goals leading to recession. which is why I think a protracted recession will last longer and cut deeper than you think - 18 to 24 months. Real estate is the first asset to be affected and we can already see the beginning of a historical housing crash - I think it will be worse than 2008. Housing values will drop 20 to 50% off its highs depending on the region of the county or world you live in and stock will follow suit. I expect another 75 basis point hike in January followed by another 75 basis point hike in March and a 50 basis point hike in June and a wait and see approach for September. In this environment sitting on the sidelines with cash and watching the blood bath is the best approach.
Ok so I was slightly off on the fed rate hike - we got 50 vs 75 basis points. However - we now have indication from the fed for prolonged rate hikes - ask yourself - How long and high can it go? I would add that while the unemployment rate is very low - the real unemployment rate (those out of work and not looking) is beginning to separate - this is prior to an almost guaranteed round of global layoff Q1 2023. The blood bath has begun earlier that I expected as well - my thought was that we would make it through the holidays flat and layoffs in Q1 would drive the market lower. As I said earlier - I have been entirely in cash since Biden was elected - even my 401k. The sidelines feel pretty good right now.
 

casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
43,578
18,043
113
Petak Island
this one goes out to Casa:

Goes out to me?

I agree with him 100%.

Especially the part about envy being the motivation behind tax increases on the rich.

Anyhow, SARK paid a $13 dividend today then sold off - so it's a good time to get in because ARKK will be reaching new lows in the coming months.

This is probably the last chance for ARKK owners to get out, and maybe put their money somewhere where they can recoup their losses.
 
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INDTUBE

Legend (inyourownmind)
Nov 6, 2019
352
551
93
Goes out to me?

I agree with him 100%.

Especially the part about envy being the motivation behind tax increases on the rich.

Anyhow, SARK paid a $13 dividend today then sold off - so it's a good time to get in because ARKK will be reaching new lows in the coming months.

This is probably the last chance for ARKK owners to get out, and maybe put their money somewhere where they can recoup their losses.
Get out of everything! Cash is king for the next 18 months - Q1 and Q2 are going to be a disaster.
 

INDTUBE

Legend (inyourownmind)
Nov 6, 2019
352
551
93
I'm short the S&P via SH and short ARKK via SARK.

Why would I abandon these positions?
Shorting the S&P is a good call - most investors are simply not that sophisticated. Keep the powder dry for future opportunities - many of my friends think we have already hit bottom and I'm like we are not even close the bottom yet. Average 401k's, retirement and stock portfolios are down 20-30% in 2022 (something I completely avoided) - I think there is the possibility for another 20-30% drop in equities in 2023. thats all I am saying. And don't get me started on real estate - 30 year fixed are at 7.5% now and will most likely go north of 10% and could get as high as 12% - at those rates there will be no buyers unless you are holding cash. During these times for me personally - I am happy to sit on the sidelines and wait.