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***Official Real Estate Thread***

grapedrink

grapedrink

Duke status
May 21, 2011
26,338
15,127
113
A Beach
PRCD said:
Above the so-called doomsayers were accused of “repeating the same tropes for decades” and “having no skin in the game.” @grapedrink could you please say who the doomsayers on this thread are and what you mean by “repeating the same tropes for decades” and “having no skin in the game.”
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Do I really have to point them out :unsure: :roflmao:

I do. The BLS publishes a wage distribution and there are other estimates of household net worth distribution, including the amount of consumer debt and student loan debt and savings. These are the types of data you’d use to say that the fundamentals had improved enough to drive the housing price increases we’ve seen.
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Again, there is the sandbox that we play in where most of us consider the same handful zip codes desirable, and then there is the rest of the country who live in $100-300k homes. The former is not bound to fundamentals because there are a lot of high net worth individuals who can afford to live wherever they want, and there are only so many properties in these desirable zip codes. Whereas the rest of the country has plenty of houses, room to grow, and is cheaper/easier to build.

I’ve looked at this data and it’s all bad for Millennials and they carry in the neighborhood of 2-3 trillion in student loan debt the size of a mortgage down payment on average. Also, wages have been stagnant for the bottom 3/5ths of earners since the ‘90s. About the only “fundamentals” I sawimproving over the past 2 years were for thhose in the top 20% who are compensated partially or wholly in stock.
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Funny, because they seem to be making it work. Sky is falling.
 
M

Muscles

Michael Peterson status
Jun 1, 2013
2,599
3,607
113
California/Hawaii
bluemarlin04 said:
Name one market where there was a 100% increase in 3 years.
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Near 100% increase in 3.5 years

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/105-Rodney-Ave-92024/home/4129469
- 50% increase in 3 months. My guess is the pending that shows no price means the RE cartel is trying to drive up interest in the property since the market is stalled.

100% increase from 2016 to 2021

I could go on. There's houses like this all over coastal SOCAL.
 
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R

r32

Administrator
Staff member
Apr 1, 2005
18,173
9,962
113
Cambria
Muscles said:
Near 100% increase in 3.5 years

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/105-Rodney-Ave-92024/home/4129469
- 50% increase in 3 months. My guess is the pending that shows no price means the RE cartel is trying to drive up interest in the property since the market is stalled.

100% increase from 2016 to 2021

I could go on. There's houses like this all over coastal SOCAL.
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Where's all the money coming from? Is everyone so loaded that $1-2m home are no big deal anymore? And will real estate ever reach a top in this State?
 
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M

Muscles

Michael Peterson status
Jun 1, 2013
2,599
3,607
113
California/Hawaii
r32 said:
Where's all the money coming from? Is everyone so loaded that $1-2m home are no big deal anymore? And will real estate ever reach a top in this State?
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Cheap debt is the answer. Make loans next to free and flood the money supply and people will willingly sign on for way more debt and sellers will gladly meet demand if it means a pay day.

Look at the growth prior to 2020. What changed that caused the demand to surge so rapidly in the last 2.5 years? It certainly wasn't economic fundamentals.
 
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PRCD

PRCD

Tom Curren status
Feb 25, 2020
12,872
8,920
113
grapedrink said:
Do I really have to point them out :unsure: :roflmao:
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Yes.

Again, there is the sandbox that we play in where most of us consider the same handful zip codes desirable, and then there is the rest of the country who live in $100-300k homes. The former is not bound to fundamentals because there are a lot of high net worth individuals who can afford to live wherever they want, and there are only so many properties in these desirable zip codes. Whereas the rest of the country has plenty of houses, room to grow, and is cheaper/easier to build.
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The Case-Shiller index uses 20 metro areas, so more than a handful of highly-desirable zip codes - there are many undesirable ones like Detroit and St. Louis.
1655249545131.png
Also, population was declining in many of these metro areas with the worst lockdown restrictions. New York comes to mind. Remember all of those articles on rich remote tech workers buying houses in rural areas? How does it work that the population is declining in a metro area but home prices are still rising AND rents are rising about as much?
Funny, because they seem to be making it work. Sky is falling.
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What do you mean by this? How are they "Making it work?"
1655249728162.png
 
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sdsrfr

sdsrfr

Phil Edwards status
Jul 13, 2020
6,022
11,549
113
San Diego
Meh, Im still not convinced. Those links to homes with 100% increase have not yet sold. who is to say what they will actually sell for.

Let’s see some closed sales reflecting 100% markup in 3yrs. I don’t mean Redfin estimate BS. We are looking for closed contracts for real data since that is what both sides are after here.
 
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PRCD

PRCD

Tom Curren status
Feb 25, 2020
12,872
8,920
113
Stacking paper and making it work:
1655249901483.png

Note that the total US housing market is about $43 trillion.
 
casa_mugrienta

casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
43,853
18,428
113
Petak Island
Muscles said:
Cheap debt is the answer. Make loans next to free and flood the money supply and people will willingly sign on for way more debt and sellers will gladly meet demand if it means a pay day.
Click to expand...

Significant is this does not just apply to the housing market, it's the general economy that feeds the housing market.

Debt runs the government and the cheap debt runs the economy and the proceeds of that economy feeds the housing market.
 
casa_mugrienta

casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
43,853
18,428
113
Petak Island
sdsrfr said:
Meh, Im still not convinced. Those links to homes with 100% increase have not yet sold. who is to say what they will actually sell for.

Let’s see some closed sales reflecting 100% markup in 3yrs. I don’t mean Redfin estimate BS. We are looking for closed contracts for real data since that is what both sides are after here.
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Where's that post I made with images from the newspaper listing all SD zip codes and their increases?
 
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M

Muscles

Michael Peterson status
Jun 1, 2013
2,599
3,607
113
California/Hawaii
sdsrfr said:
Meh, Im still not convinced. Those links to homes with 100% increase have not yet sold. who is to say what they will actually sell for.

Let’s see some closed sales reflecting 100% markup in 3yrs. I don’t mean Redfin estimate BS. We are looking for closed contracts for real data since that is what both sides are after here.
Click to expand...
?


This house sold for a near 100% increase from 2016 to 2021.


$1M increase from 2014.

$1M increase from 2020 to 2022

Over 100% increase in less than 5 years

There's a lot more out there.
 
M

Muscles

Michael Peterson status
Jun 1, 2013
2,599
3,607
113
California/Hawaii
casa_mugrienta said:
Significant is this does not just apply to the housing market, it's the general economy that feeds the housing market.

Debt runs the government and the cheap debt runs the economy and the proceeds of that economy feeds the housing market.
Click to expand...
Everything goes into overdrive with cheap debt. Why do people not see this? If the fed is using rising rates to slow the economy then why does no one believe low rates fuel the economy?
 
sdsrfr

sdsrfr

Phil Edwards status
Jul 13, 2020
6,022
11,549
113
San Diego
casa_mugrienta said:
Where's that post I made with images from the newspaper listing all SD zip codes and their increases?
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That’s a fair metric to apply. Not antidotal property picks in certain neighborhoods or large lot tear downs by the coast.

I’m just playing the game for both sides - if a claim is made it should be backed up with the data makes you believe it to be true.
 
PRCD

PRCD

Tom Curren status
Feb 25, 2020
12,872
8,920
113
Muscles said:
Everything goes into overdrive with cheap debt. Why do people not see this? If the fed is using rising rates to slow the economy then why does no one believe low rates fuel the economy?
Click to expand...
And under fiat currency regimes, money is essentially government-backed debt. There are a lot of ways to run the currency, but printing more money means more debt issuance. We’ve really been all gas no brakes since 2012, but it has really taken off since 2020. This may have something to do with people from major financial institutions occupying key positions in current administration.
 
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M

Muscles

Michael Peterson status
Jun 1, 2013
2,599
3,607
113
California/Hawaii
sdsrfr said:
That’s a fair metric to apply. Not antidotal property picks in certain neighborhoods or large lot tear downs by the coast.

I’m just playing the game for both sides - if a claim is made it should be backed up with the data makes you believe it to be true.
Click to expand...
bluemarlin04 said:
Name one market where there was a 100% increase in 3 years.
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Encinitas

July 2019 - 1,060,000
April 2022 - 1,975,000

Carlsbad
July 2019 - 855,000
April 2022 - 1,500,000
 
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