How’s the stock market?

[Mr Doof]

it'll go there within the next year, an extended time horizon is not a bad thing. caca gets excited over the little tings, an emotional little wee man he is.

For certain we are in a (short-term?) downtrend. Can't look at the 6 month chart and deny it.

War in Ukraine is overshadowing a lot of things, makes me wonder what else we are not seeing (both good and bad). Might be a good time to buy oil futures if Ukraine settles down at by end of May and before hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico fires up, but no one base any financial decisions on my musing please....I'm just thinking out loud.

 

[PRCD]

For certain we are in a (short-term?) downtrend. Can't look at the 6 month chart and deny it.

War in Ukraine is overshadowing a lot of things, makes me wonder what else we are not seeing (both good and bad). Might be a good time to buy oil futures if Ukraine settles down at by end of May and before hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico fires up, but no one base any financial decisions on my musing please....I'm just thinking out loud.

You're not seeing anything more in charts than soothsayers saw in plates of bones.

How Well Do Blindfolded Monkeys Play the Stock Market? - Priceonomics

Over a 14 year contest, the Wall Street Journal tested whether professional investors could do better than monkeys picking stocks at random. Results were inconclusive.

priceonomics.com

 

[Mr Doof]

Chartwise, I am seeing more than what soothsayers saw in a plate of bones.

Soothsayers look at bones to predict the future.

That is not what I am doing in the first sentence.

I am looking at HISTORICAL chart and saying, "For certain we are in a (short-term?) downtrend."

For the second sentence, I am not using a historical chart when I guess at oil futures.....there I am being like a wacky soothsayer looking at bones.

You are conflating the use of historical chart for from the first part of my post with the second part. I apologize if I was being unclear.

Besides, all the crypto market timers know that that hamster predictions are better than blindfolded monkeys.

 

[PRCD]

Chartwise, I am seeing more than what soothsayers saw in a plate of bones.

Soothsayers look at bones to predict the future.

That is not what I am doing in the first sentence.

I am looking at HISTORICAL chart and saying, "For certain we are in a (short-term?) downtrend."

Which period(s) of history are you using as your trend and why? How accurately has this method predicted future results?

 

[sussle]

For certain we are in a (short-term?) downtrend. Can't look at the 6 month chart and deny it.

War in Ukraine is overshadowing a lot of things, makes me wonder what else we are not seeing (both good and bad). Might be a good time to buy oil futures if Ukraine settles down at by end of May and before hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico fires up, but no one base any financial decisions on my musing please....I'm just thinking out loud.

i'm of the opinion that there is a ton of pent-up demand out there for all kinds of things from travel to consumer goods etc etc - (i see this in my own house - Mrs Sussle just bought tickets for Brazil for the first time in two years, and she will arrive there with suitcases of consumer goods bought in the US for the Brazzo in-laws). covid is under control, supply issues will get worked out, but of course, Ukraine is the wild card and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future. i'm thinking a year+ before things really settle and i don't mind waiting while i keep dca'ing my index funds

 

[Mr Doof]

Which period(s) of history are you using as your trend and why? How accurately has this method predicted future results?

You have three questions.

First answer to first question:

For certain we are in a (short-term?) downtrend. Can't look at the 6 month chart and deny it.

Answer to 2nd question of why:

Because I think 6 months is close enough for a 200-moving day average..a common enough benchmark.

Answer to 3rd question of accuracy:

......I am not using a historical chart when I guess at oil futures.....there I am being like a wacky soothsayer looking at bones.

 

[Subway]

i'm of the opinion that there is a ton of pent-up demand out there for all kinds of things from travel to consumer goods etc etc - (i see this in my own house - Mrs Sussle just bought tickets for Brazil for the first time in two years, and she will arrive there with suitcases of consumer goods bought in the US for the Brazzo in-laws). covid is under control, supply issues will get worked out, but of course, Ukraine is the wild card and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future. i'm thinking a year+ before things really settle and i don't mind waiting while i keep dca'ing my index funds

this is my way as well. I may actually crank UP my 401 k contributions like i did at the beginning of covid, and buy a TON of this cheap S+P while maxing my contributions for the year. win win. Get cheap stonks, and then my paychecks get bigger, sooner

 

[casa_mugrienta]

I am looking at HISTORICAL chart and saying, "For certain we are in a (short-term?) downtrend."

And how significant of a downtrend?



A look at this chart does not seem comforting.

Red circle is 2018...the market responding to the Fed hiking interest rates"too fast".

Green circle the COVID dip.

For much of the time after the green everyone was staying home, productivity was down, businesses were closed. People stopped paying rent. Stimulus checks were mailed.

And meanwhile stocks went soaring and everyone was an investing pro on Robinhood.

Stocks rallied because... a bunch of extra cash on hand to fuel a casino style environment?

So going by the market's negative response to a Fed rate hike in 2018 and the economic negatives that came along with COVID and coming out of COVID...what now when all the economic data is bad, bad, bad?

And listen to the Fed over the past year...No inflation > transient inflation > yeah, inflation is bad > negative GDP is perfectly fine!

Fed says this is a great economy for workers...WTF????? Wage workers are getting KILLED by inflation. If you work for wages you absolutely know this.

You can't trust them. They're clearly being deliberately dishonest.

People saying they're contributing to their 401K at a discount right now really cannot be looking at the big picture or are in complete denial. There is no discount when items are massively overpriced. It's pretty clear we are still in the midst of a massive bubble that is waiting to pop.

 

[grapedrink]

People saying they're contributing to their 401K at a discount right now really cannot be looking at the big picture or are in complete denial. There is no discount when items are massively overpriced. It's pretty clear we are still in the midst of a massive bubble that is waiting to pop.

I don't disagree, but again- if you are so certain, why don't you invest in an inverse fund and cash out big when the bubble pops?

 

[casa_mugrienta]

I don't disagree, but again- if you are so certain, why don't you invest in an inverse fund and cash out big when the bubble pops?

Like I told you.

It's a tricky game and you can get pretty tangled up.

I have been told this repeatedly by people who do this for a living and have formal education in the topic and work at investment institutions AND are bearish.

To make big money you have to make big plays.

I'm not into that sort of thing - meaning playing with a financial product when I might not fully understand the risks or how to operate with one.

Inverse funds are not typically held by regular retail investors because of this.

I don't throw money around and don't approach investment with a casino attitude.

Right now my money is sitting in places I understand. Oil, gas, land, cash.

Being greedy/getrichquick isn't part of my personality.

 

[PRCD]

Help me, chartists. Which time interval should I have used to predict this trend? Will it go up or down?

 

[casa_mugrienta]

Help me, chartists. Which time interval should I have used to predict this trend? Will it go up or down?
View attachment 129046

I don't think you have to be a chartist to understand Russia supplies commodities and Europe needs those commodities.

That's why only morons giggled about "crashing the rouble".

 

[PRCD]

I don't think you have to be a chartist to understand Russia supplies commodities and Europe needs those commodities.

That's why only morons giggled about "crashing the rouble".

That's not how pure chartists reason though. It's all about historical and current trends - picking an origin and a slope (first derivative) than making a bet. (ignore the trig)


Edit: look at these trends I fitted:


You see, it all makes perfect sense.

 

[skullver]

And how significant of a downtrend?

View attachment 129037

A look at this chart does not seem comforting.

Red circle is 2018...the market responding to the Fed hiking interest rates"too fast".

Green circle the COVID dip.

For much of the time after the green everyone was staying home, productivity was down, businesses were closed. People stopped paying rent. Stimulus checks were mailed.

And meanwhile stocks went soaring and everyone was an investing pro on Robinhood.

Stocks rallied because... a bunch of extra cash on hand to fuel a casino style environment?

So going by the market's negative response to a Fed rate hike in 2018 and the economic negatives that came along with COVID and coming out of COVID...what now when all the economic data is bad, bad, bad?

And listen to the Fed over the past year...No inflation > transient inflation > yeah, inflation is bad > negative GDP is perfectly fine!

Fed says this is a great economy for workers...WTF????? Wage workers are getting KILLED by inflation. If you work for wages you absolutely know this.

You can't trust them. They're clearly being deliberately dishonest.

People saying they're contributing to their 401K at a discount right now really cannot be looking at the big picture or are in complete denial. There is no discount when items are massively overpriced. It's pretty clear we are still in the midst of a massive bubble that is waiting to pop.

One thing I've noticed, also with the Nasdaq and Dow, is the relatively low volume on these current sell offs. Look at your S&P chart and the high volume bars on those heavy sell offs. We have not yet hit bottom in my opinion, once the heavy volume sell offs start, I think one could start paying attention and looking for capitulation and some sort of meaningful bottom. As of now, any pops get sold off and volume is relatively low. I think the major sell off is still coming.

 

[Mr Doof]

One thing I've noticed, also with the Nasdaq and Dow, is the relatively low volume on these current sell offs. Look at your S&P chart and the high volume bars on those heavy sell offs. We have not yet hit bottom in my opinion, once the heavy volume sell offs start, I think one could start paying attention and looking for capitulation and some sort of meaningful bottom. As of now, any pops get sold off and volume is relatively low. I think the major sell off is still coming.

Will the saying "Price follows volume" hold true in time?

 

[skullver]

Will the saying "Price follows volume" hold true in time?

I use "volume precedes price," potatoe pah-tah-toe. I mean, yes? It always does. Guessing the direction and timing are what separates the chaff.

 

[grapedrink]

Like I told you.

It's a tricky game and you can get pretty tangled up.

I'm not into that sort of thing - meaning playing with a financial product when I might not fully understand the risks or how to operate with one.

So you really aren't that certain and you don't want to put any skin in the game. Thanks for confirming what all of us know already

To make big money you have to make big plays.
I don't throw money around and don't approach investment with a casino attitude.

Of course, yet you talk down on everyday passive investors like they are dumb, even though that strategy has been proven to be 100% effective over a 20+ year span. A strategy where you are likely to come out ahead of most active traders and guaranteed to outperform 100% of savings accounts.

Right now my money is sitting in places I understand. Oil, gas, land, cash.

Sure, I could potentially be a good strategy to allocate money elsewhere based on world events, but that puts you in the active trader category and plenty of them fail with that same "time the market" strategy as well. Commodities are fine if you buy low, hold and sell high but there is no reliable appreciation. Cash is a guaranteed loser over time and doesn't do much good for you beyond a year or so of reserves and paying your mortgage (probably the only fixed cost over time). Land and real estate I'm a fan of.

 

[LifeOnMars]

For certain we are in a (short-term?) downtrend. Can't look at the 6 month chart and deny it.

recession incoming within the year, usually into midterm elections there is a rally but after that it's looking bleak

SPY: Stocks May See A Massive Rally After The Fed Meeting

Stocks have sold off hard heading into the FOMC meeting. However, the FOMC meeting has typically acted as a de-risking event since late 2021. Read more.

seekingalpha.com

opened up some leveraged long positions to hold for the next few weeks, expecting another dump before the end of the month

CPI report is also something that could spook the market, we shall see what the next few weeks will bring

 

[racer1]

Market liked whatever Powell said

 

[Mr Doof]

Market liked whatever Powell said

Sell on the news?