As I noted previously, the most important fact to understand in reviewing this chart is that a fatality reported today reflects an infection that occurred 15-25 days earlier. The data now clearly show that sometime roughly between March 8 and March 18, the pandemic began to slow dramatically, producing an obviously flattened curve beginning on April 2.
This flattening likely corresponds to the impact of the late stages of the decentralized public health measures that began across California on March 8.
In short, the data strongly suggest that these early public health measures substantially curtailed the spread of the virus. Once the full impact of Newsom’s March 19 stay-at-home order is reflected in the fatality data, we should expect to see the curve start bending downward over the next several days.