The first link was mostly squid ink. This part, in particular, was absurdMeans: Russian (or Russian affiliated) demo teams.
Opportunity: Russian Navy in the Baltic Sea.
Motive (all conjecture at this point):
1 link
2 link
3 link
4 link
If anyone doesn't want to follow links, and I can't blame you, perhaps simple motive for the pipeline attack is better understood by looking at recent Crimea bridge attack. I think this bridge is more useful to Russia and the Russians on Crimea than it is to Ukraine. After the bridge was attacked, Ukraine got missile attack in civilian areas. Russian retribution seems slightly more plausible than solely trying to go for battlefield gains. When the pipeline was attacked, no similar Russian attack. Ergo, the appearance is that Russian strikes back when it has suffered something it doesn't want.
Blowing up your own pipeline to “signal to the West” instead of several others run by NATO countries is an idiotic idea. The part about force majeur also fails Ockham’s razor. The author clearly doesn’t believe what he’s writing. BTW the Germans I’ve talked to think the US did it - the Germans were trying to negotiate a reopening of the pipeline since they’re so dependent on Russian natural gas. Being an American vassal, there’s not much they can do.If so, that does change the strategic landscape in the energy war. If perpetrated by Russia, the signaling value toward the West—which would certainly know Russia is behind the explosions—may be a threat to the rest of the marine energy infrastructure
The Ukrainians had the motive but not the means or opportunity - no navy, at least not in the North Sea, no UUVs. The breaks in the pipeline were at a depth at/beyond perilous mixed gas diving that has to be managed from the surface. It was also too shallow for a submarine. Depth charges are typically dropped in a pattern to get submarines to surface, but we could easily tell from satellite images who was in the area at the time. Most likely the 200lb charges were attached by UUV - only a few navies are good at this.
link 2 says Russia had all 3 Ms but never explains why they would blow up a pipeline that wasn’t being used and says their motives were unclear.
In these articles, of course, it’s not explained how the US had much greater means, motive, and opportunty than the Russians. Biden even said we would do it.
I don’t know what’s motivating Americans to believe the Russians blew up their own pipeline- maybe it’s cognitive dissonance.
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