How’s the stock market?

[Mr Doof]

Earth to Mr. Doof,
The recession has already begun for everyone but the top 1% who benefit from high inflation.

Mr Doof to PRCD

1 Tell me something I'm not experiencing, don't know about, and haven't read about for the last 12 months. You can be the first and I will thank you for it when I read it.

2 How long do you think this one (recession) will last? What is the working definition of recession you are using?

3 I'm not really disagreeing with anyone here except maybe the severity. Differences (of opinion?) are what make a market, yes?

4 What increase would you have like to have seen?

5 Volker likely got pushed out for not kowtowing. Those professional deep state bureaucrats....

...and yet Volcker did what needed to be done.

In hindsight, yes. Not all were so certain while it was happening.

100 or 125 would have shown they were serious yet cautious.

Be interesting to get 100 or highly regarded pros that are not under the thumb of politics to give their thoughts.

My thoughts? Sure, I can see sense in your statement.

Bottom line, the rate hikes required to tame inflation are beyond what the US economy/government debt is able to handle.

You mean the 1-1.25% you would like to see?.

The Fed has been behind the ball since the start of this.

Agreed.

This is going to be painful whatever way it goes - there is no good ending here - and the longer the Fed shuffles feet the worse it's going to be.

Agreed.

Like I've said, I could be wrong.

Same.

This sort of stuff is covered in Economics 101 textbooks. But this is politics playing out, not economics.

Mostly agree. Lots of worldwide events too, not all of them USA political...well, hold on, we've got our fingers in lots of pies. Ok, 95% agree in print, 100% if I was a betting man.

 

[casa_mugrienta]

You mean the 1-1.25% you would like to see?.

CPI @ 8.6

We just got a 75 bps rate increase putting the new rate @ 1.5% - 1.75% - still historic lows.

We've got a long way to go.

100 to 125 bps increase would have shown the isn't bluffing and was willing to do more than expected and would have really affirmed confidence in the Fed.

 

[PRCD]

I don’t disagree with much if this. I think the choice words of “taking inflation seriously” is a hard swallow as we cannot prove what they do and don’t take seriously when looking at their orb of infinite economic wisdom.

each fed will have a different orb of wisdom they use and trust based not only on conventional (or novel) economic theories, predecessors and, as you mention - their will to keep their job.

Western economists are court astrologers, nothing more. They're merely balancing the needs of their patrons against their desire not to be hung by the peasants.

i think Jerome is taking somethings seriously, what that is, I cannot put my finger on beyond his desire to project what he may do in the future more so than his recent predecessors. His orb has told him that much. I don’t think it told him how to correct a projected course that requires reevaluation, and that is a point of frustration for some.

It's easy to calculate whether to tighten - calculate an honest CPI that weights rent and mortgages more significantly and compare to wage growth. The difference should be zero or negative. If positive, time to tighten.

I charge $500/hr.

 

[Mr Doof]

Bottom line, the rate hikes required to tame inflation are beyond what the US economy/government debt is able to handle.

100 to 125 bps increase would have shown the isn't bluffing and was willing to do more than expected and would have really affirmed confidence in the Fed.

So 1% - 1.25% that is what the US economy/government debt is able to handle or not?

Or are you thinking there needs to a series of increases to.....how much? I don't know what is optimal. In 20 years I can tell you what should have been done.

IMHO, would have made sense to me to start raising rates a few years back but elections....

 

[Surfdog]

IMO, the Fed should've started raising interest rates the minute we dramatically recovered from the shortest recession in recent history after the Covid Black Swan event from late Feb 2020-late April 2020.

By the time the market almost fully recovered most all its losses in near record time around Aug/Sept 2020, the feds should've started inching rates back up 1/4% at a time just to keep the whiplash from turning into something septic. But politics on both sides kept that from happening. Now their inaction going into and thru 2021 is going to cost us dearly.

 

[Subway]

I hope it’s not quite as dire but there is sense in what you say.

 

[casa_mugrienta]

So 1% - 1.25% that is what the US economy/government debt is able to handle or not?

Or are you thinking there needs to a series of increases to.....how much? I don't know what is optimal. In 20 years I can tell you what should have been done.

IMHO, would have made sense to me to start raising rates a few years back but elections....

Rates need to compete with CPI to curb inflation.

Rates @ 1.75% don't curb inflation @ 8.6 %.

Fed should've started hiking back in 2021.

We need larger rate hikes to curb inflation - economy can't handle that though, so inflation will be allowed to run hot instead.

Today's 75 bps isn't gonna cut it.

100 -125 bps isn't gonna cut it either, the optics would have been good though.

The current situation is a continuation of the Fed's "There is no inflation/inflation is transitory" charade where they stay behind the curve because it is easier politically.

 

[grapedrink]

CPI @ 8.6

We just got a 75 bps rate increase putting the new rate @ 1.5% - 1.75% - still historic lows.

We've got a long way to go.

100 to 125 bps increase would have shown the isn't bluffing and was willing to do more than expected and would have really affirmed confidence in the Fed.

It was the largest single day increase in almost 30 years. I'd say that sends a pretty strong message, even if it is mostly symbolic in terms of the results.

 

[PRCD]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1537161152874135554

5D chess. Trust the plan.

 

[SlicedFeet]

So when are we going to reach max pain again when people start preaching about how evil the Fed is and how we have been kept in the dark about our fractional reserve banking system?

I’m stoked about all this. When I bought my house, my rate was 7% and was happy about that. 20% down too. Then watching the next 20 years go by with no skin in the game buyers and ultra low rates that lasted for freaking decades.

The douche bags those two decades produced is mind boggling. I’m a sadist. I want to see lots of freaking pain. Thank God the Dems jacked up minimum wage to help combat all this asset depreciation we are going to witness.

 

[racer1]

Went out to dinner tonight at a place we haven't been to in awhile. Two entrees and a salad for $80. No drinks or dessert.
Fuggggg. Was maybe $50-$60 a couple years ago. Going to the InstaPot for awhile.

 

[Northern_Shores]

Went out to dinner tonight at a place we haven't been to in awhile. Two entrees and a salad for $80. No drinks or dessert.
Fuggggg. Was maybe $50-$60 a couple years ago. Going to the InstaPot for awhile.

There shouldn't be people serving food at night in a modern economy.

 

[LifeOnMars]

3700 target breached on the S&P, took a bit longer than I was expecting

 

[Northern_Shores]

This week I've been getting clobbered

 

[LifeOnMars]

This week I've been getting clobbered

hodlers are stoopid, should have been goin short the last few months

 

[Northern_Shores]

hodlers are stoopid, should have been goin short the last few months

I've been in oil all year, but now even oil stocks are getting slapped around.

 

[PRCD]

Went out to dinner tonight at a place we haven't been to in awhile. Two entrees and a salad for $80. No drinks or dessert.
Fuggggg. Was maybe $50-$60 a couple years ago. Going to the InstaPot for awhile.

More bad news:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1536155972992917504

How expensive will it be to swill a liter cola?
The good news is you can make almost everything in an Instapot:

Um, Did You Know You Can Make Wine in Your Instant Pot?

Apparently it actually tastes pretty decent.

www.thekitchn.com

 

[Chocki]

More bad news:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1536155972992917504

How expensive will it be to swill a liter cola?
The good news is you can make almost everything in an Instapot:

Um, Did You Know You Can Make Wine in Your Instant Pot?

Apparently it actually tastes pretty decent.

www.thekitchn.com

Biden has us making prison wine.
Good times.

Transform Recycled Cardboard Into Shoes

Transform Recycled Cardboard Into Shoes : Below you will see a step by step process of how to take leftover cardboard and transform it into functional shoes in 2 styles.

www.instructables.com

 

[PRCD]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1537153567617843200

 

[hammies]

Mark Cuban: “In stocks and crypto, you will see companies that were sustained by cheap, easy money—but didn’t have valid business prospects—will disappear...Like [Warren] Buffett says, ‘When the tide goes out, you get to see who is swimming naked.’”