Aussie/NZ COVID.

casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
43,705
18,210
113
Petak Island
Bill McNeill's 1976 book Plagues and Peoples calls viruses "diseases of civilisation, par excellence" and posits the (obvious) point that a certain density of population is needed for successful viral diseases to propagate.

We are seeing in Australia, where Geography is destiny, that even with tiny viral loads and low disease gradients, how even this is disrupting the very few large urban congregations on the island continent.

So I think the question implicit in Caca's opening post is more pertinent now: what next? Live with a tiny viral load or continue on the path of intermittent, short term lockdowns and remain virus free.
It has me quite curious.

To be honest I don't see any solution working out smoothly.

10 million people in Sydney locking down with varying restrictions going in effect in other urban centers.

Loads of restrictions already remaining in place on travel/ability to leave and reenter the country.

Lockdown after lockdown could get tiring for city dwellers.

Any return to normal under the current OZ standard of acceptable infection rates and deaths seemingly hinges on a very high vaccination rate.

I'm no expert but I could see the status quo (or some very similar variation) easily going into 2023 or 2024, as my understanding it's not until 2022 a significant number of the AUS population would be vaccinated (if they can be convinced to do so) and unless there's significant political pressure I can't imagine the government will be quick to ease restrictions.

All the while battling variants.
 

Sharkbiscuit

Duke status
Aug 6, 2003
26,709
19,656
113
Jacksonville Beach
The mans has three different upside down passports?

But our boy knew Cambria is another word for Wales? That's some Cymru sh!t right yonder. I'm claiming EU/UK/UK-member state passport/Welsh is fully nuking. That's how our boy rolls.

dont miss surfing w byron hipsters

lock 'em down
What about chippies from Cronulla who want to challenge you to swim races across the bay?
 
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Truth

Phil Edwards status
Jul 18, 2002
5,920
3,460
113
The mans has three different upside down passports?

But our boy knew Cambria is another word for Wales? That's some Cymru sh!t right yonder. I'm claiming EU/UK/UK-member state passport/Welsh is fully nuking. That's how our boy rolls.



What about chippies from Cronulla who want to challenge you to swim races across the bay?
Steve should have never challeneged me hahah - i knew i had him when we went to keyhole to start the race and i had speedos on and googles - he had trunks and no googles

steve is one of a kind
 
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freeride76

Michael Peterson status
Dec 31, 2009
3,423
4,275
113
Lennox Head.
It has me quite curious.

To be honest I don't see any solution working out smoothly.

10 million people in Sydney locking down with varying restrictions going in effect in other urban centers.

Loads of restrictions already remaining in place on travel/ability to leave and reenter the country.

Lockdown after lockdown could get tiring for city dwellers.

Any return to normal under the current OZ standard of acceptable infection rates and deaths seemingly hinges on a very high vaccination rate.

I'm no expert but I could see the status quo (or some very similar variation) easily going into 2023 or 2024, as my understanding it's not until 2022 a significant number of the AUS population would be vaccinated (if they can be convinced to do so) and unless there's significant political pressure I can't imagine the government will be quick to ease restrictions.

All the while battling variants.
might be right.

Not much political will because the status quo: fukall covid, economy booming, no immigration= tighter labour market esp for young people suits a helluva lot of the country.

we'll see.
 
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surfercross

OTF status
Oct 19, 2006
189
63
28
Better to let it burn through the population. Oz will fail in the long term. They won't reach the vaccination level they need. Hell USA cant meet it because some people don't want some rapid bullshit experimental juice injected into them. Hey lets NERF the world.
 

freeride76

Michael Peterson status
Dec 31, 2009
3,423
4,275
113
Lennox Head.
Oz will fail in the long term.
Highly unlikely.
Geography is destiny.
An island continent full of raw materials on the edge of Asia is likely to continue to prosper as long as the USA lives up to it's security guarantees viz a viz China.

And seeing as Australia has sacrificed bodies to back up the USA in all it's ill fated military adventures that guarantee is likely to be upheld.
 

PRCD

Tom Curren status
Feb 25, 2020
12,817
8,837
113
Highly unlikely.
Geography is destiny.
An island continent full of raw materials on the edge of Asia is likely to continue to prosper as long as the USA lives up to it's security guarantees viz a viz China.
China owns a large chunk of our elites and yours.
And seeing as Australia has sacrificed bodies to back up the USA in all it's ill fated military adventures that guarantee is likely to be upheld.
No one is more ungrateful for blood spilt than American politicians. There's a saying, "Whatever is paid-for in blood is given away by Washington." Even if we wanted to help you, our generals are incompetent.

THis is the exact opposite of the 1940s where we helped you against the Imperial Japanese Army with a powerful industrial base, competent leadership, and plenty of fighting men.

I'd say you have better odds of getting help from the guy in my profile pic.
 
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Hazrus

Nep status
Sep 23, 2016
603
504
93
It has me quite curious.

To be honest I don't see any solution working out smoothly.

10 million people in Sydney locking down with varying restrictions going in effect in other urban centers.

Loads of restrictions already remaining in place on travel/ability to leave and reenter the country.

Lockdown after lockdown could get tiring for city dwellers.

Any return to normal under the current OZ standard of acceptable infection rates and deaths seemingly hinges on a very high vaccination rate.

I'm no expert but I could see the status quo (or some very similar variation) easily going into 2023 or 2024, as my understanding it's not until 2022 a significant number of the AUS population would be vaccinated (if they can be convinced to do so) and unless there's significant political pressure I can't imagine the government will be quick to ease restrictions.

All the while battling variants.
As a Sydney dweller, you’re spot on imo
 

Mr J

Michael Peterson status
Aug 18, 2003
2,262
1,468
113
Regional Vic, Australia
Current death toll from Covid 19 in Australia to date for 2021: 0
How many in an ICU: 1.
That is a great result.

Despite the end of the "jobkeeper" wage subsidy, unemployment rates defied the dire predictions and is just over 5% which is a fairly normal figure for Oz.

All is not well though. Covid kept at bay by locking international borders. On and off closing of state borders. On and off lockdowns of which the most severe was the 112 day Melbourne lockdown, we should thank the Melburnites for their sacrifice in stopping the spread to the rest of Australia and have sympathy for those who are still enduring income loss due to lack of international tourists. Exodus from the city has caused rental accommodation shortage in the regional areas and regional house prices gone thru the roof - I'm guessing temporary coz I've been in regional aus the last year and where I am doesn't seem to be suffering from a population explosion.

Employment rate is partly due to the shortage of temporary overseas labour. If you want a job cleaning airbnb or picking fruit, now is a good time. The covid spread from workers doing multiple part time jobs exposed the casualisation of our workforce which has been going on for 20yrs.

I'm glad the border and lockdown policy was enforced. However at some point I am going to want to travel internationally. Not possible now. Huge waiting list of residents waiting to get back into australia. Reports from overseas residents in Asia saying as soon as air tickets become available they are sold out in minutes, $4,000+ AU prices.

I'm only half vaccinated with AstraZeneca. I took the first opportunity for the first dose. I'll get the second in August. Our federal government is populist. Closed borders have been popular and they totally neglected the long term fix. I'm a lefty, so I'm not going to like the current govt anyway. I'm actually quite happy with the drastic improvement in my lifestyle, but I know not all is well in Aus.

VaccinatingAus.JPG
 
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