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How’s the stock market?
- Thread starter lagunaboy
- Start date
Overweight dividend-paying oil patch. CVX and ET for me. VonMeister might have talked me into XOM. We'll see.
Wouldnt hedging with real estate assume the Fed will do nothing to raise interest rates to an appropriate level, thus continuing on with inflation driving us into recession?Real estate with low interest rates , . . . until last week
I don’t understand how real estate would be a good investment in either of the two scenarios we seem to be facing.
Nice. Should’ve listen to VonMeister about XOM, Probably still a little room to move though
Barring unforeseen circumstances my oil buddy tells me the time to bail, at least in the short term, might be when gas hits around seven dollars a gallon statewide here in CA.
At that price it’s apparently thought there will be a serious dent in demand. Summer blend switchover coming soon as well…
Also I’d imagine there’s a windfall profit tax coming for the big bad oil companies.
Big bad windfall just dropped
I like how people think that the rest of the world can levy massive sanctions on Russia and be immune from any blowback.
Anyone even minorly aware of the distribution of Russia’s natural resources should have been expecting this was coming.
By the way the article states Russia is responsible for 40% of Europe’s NG consumption…I thought this number was more around 60 to 80%…can anyone verify?
Of course they will raise them, and they already have. The idea is that you are paying a fixed price on an asset for 30 years that will likely appreciate both in price and in rents assuming you are in a good market.
If you leave your money in the bank if will lose value guaranteed.
And here we go...our elected representatives must be reading this forum.
Stimulus checks for gas? Here's what could be coming your way.
A trio of bills in Congress would offer stimulus payments and rebates to help Americans cope with soaring gas prices.
www.cbsnews.com
I'm talking about actually raising them.
Not nibbling.
A real interest rate hike would push real estate prices down.
A real interest rate hike is needed to curb inflation.
If they don't raise rates I'd assume we're looking at stagflation.
That will push prices down as well.
It will be gradual. They aren't dumb enough to shock the system that quick. Rates are up a full point over just a few weeks before. I'm also not talking about buying into hot overpriced markets. The lack of supply is still keeping the RE market lucrative.
At the end of the day you can always find a FUDley dudley reason to poopoo any form of investment. I'll take my chances with my extra unneeded cash instead of losing money to inflation all day.
30 year fixed locked in at 2.5 to 3% will never happen again.
Also why I don't think the bubble will pop.
All these homes are locked in, nobody going to sell at 2.5% interest rates.
Why prices are going way over asking. Throw another $100K on the loan.
Boomer Generation who bought their first homes at 10 to 20% went crazy at 2.5%.
The Fed basically took all these homes out of the supply pool for 30 years.
Demand will only increase.
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Of course it will be gradual, what I'm saying is a morsel, and continued morsels of rate hikes likely aren't going to curb inflation.
The market rally in response to the previous rate hike is an indicator of that... obviously the rate hikes will continue until the market responds negatively but right now the message that was sent is "LET'S KEEP THIS PARTY GOIN'!!!"
The "QE>no inflation>transient inflation" Fed has no fuggin clue what they're doing - it's glaringly obvious - the can was kicked down the road starting with QE1 and now we're going to try to kick it again and miss.
I'm not shitting on what you said, I'm just trying to understand the logic.
Whatever the Fed does, or doesn't do, it all seems like a "you can run but can't hide" scenario investment wise with the outlook for the dollar as a reserve being not-so-great.
How liquid are you?
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I don't necessarily doubt or disagree with any of this, however I think that simple supply and demand fundamentals rule the roost at the end of the day. We currently have low inventory and high demand in desirable areas, institutional investors buying up long term rentals like crazy, airbnb investors, rising rents, boomers retiring and downsizing into their favorite resort towns, and remote work allowing for big salaries in cheaper towns.
The inflation play is being able to buy in at a fixed price and interest rate that is lower than inflation, rent it out, then raise rents as the years go on and eventually sell it for a profit.
Liquid enough to lose my job and not sweat it for about 4-6 months. Could live like a miser and stretch it longer if need me. Beyond that an emergency fund is just losing money IMO
But according to Jerome, everything is peachy.
It's presidential election year here in Brazil... our currency always loses value in election year, it's a given. Yet the Real is actuallt gaining lots of value over the dollar (in reality we know it's the dollar that's losing value, Real is a shitcoin).
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Do you think we might get close to the same levels of bank account interest rates as we did in the 1970's?
I’m not really qualified to make an educated prediction but my guess would be no, those days are gone forever. I would gladly keep more cash in the bank at 4-6%+.
Thinking about purchasing iBonds as an inflation hedge and mid-to-long term savings/emergency fund vehicle.
i like the iBond. put in $5k a few months and kick in a few bucks each month. that 7% will go away sometime but i figure it will be around for a year or so. i wish the annual limit was higher than $10k, i'd probably put in more.