What are your realistic expectations of when and how the beaches will re-open?

Duffy LaCoronilla

Duke status
Apr 27, 2016
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JFC man just listen to the podcast and quit pretending like you’re the only genius in the room. It’s like an hour and a half long and it’s pretty good.

By the way, we’re trusting China’s numbers now?
ok Italy...



South Korea...



Is there any statistical analysis that contradicts this?

please post if you find one.
 

PRCD

Tom Curren status
Feb 25, 2020
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So if you bring Covid home and your parents die and all of your gravy is shut off.

What then????
Yes I’m sure one of the leading scientists in global health who is taking a leading initiative into covid19 knows nothing of the statistics.

you should go tell him, clearly he knows nothing.
The Rogan interview is 1 hour 11 minutes long. Can you point us to the right slice? I found this 5 minute segment and Hotez quotes Mark Lipsitch at Harvard. Lipsitch said at 1:40 here that there could potentially be millions of deaths worldwide without mitigation and at 2:20 that the susceptibility to COVID goes up with age as well as the consequences of it:

I'll give the full 1:11 of Hotez a listen tomorrow. So far, I don't like his thinking. He's focused on one aspect of this: the deaths due to disease. I get it: he's an epidemiologist. Maybe he gets into the tradeoffs of long-term lockdowns later in the interview like the Stanford epidemiologists I posted in the COVID skepticism thread.

In general, narrowly-focused specialists tend to have huge blind spots.
 
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manbearpig

Duke status
May 11, 2009
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The Rogan interview is 1 hour 11 minutes long. Can you point us to the right slice? I found this 5 minute segment and Hotez quotes Mark Lipsitch at Harvard. Lipsitch said at 1:40 here that there could potentially be millions of deaths worldwide without mitigation and at 2:20 that the susceptibility to COVID goes up with age as well as the consequences of it:
You’re going to have to listen to it. I had it on in the truck at work through Bluetooth. It’s worth a listen.

Btw he doesn’t deny that susceptibility goes up with age at all, or underlying conditions and that those are the ones most at risk. He was simply saying we are underestimating how susceptible the younger age groups are as well.
 

PRCD

Tom Curren status
Feb 25, 2020
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You’re going to have to listen to it. I had it on in the truck at work through Bluetooth. It’s worth a listen.

Btw he doesn’t deny that susceptibility goes up with age at all, or underlying conditions and that those are the ones most at risk. He was simply saying we are underestimating how susceptible the younger age groups are as well.
That's probably true, especially for the US. Rogan had another guy on from army SF who said that most kids couldn't pass the army physical nowadays. There's a health crisis in the nation's youth.
 

Leaverite

Rabbitt Bartholomew status
Dec 19, 2017
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Dude, Just chill. Take a long camping trip with you and yours for a couple of weeks. That's what my family is going to do.

We will come back to pick up the pieces.
 

griffinsurfboard

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Oct 31, 2004
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Went for a ride on my local trail

Stayed way back when I came to a slow rider ,

When I thought it would be clear I sped up to my normal pace so I could launch the drop off ahead .

Came around a turn and rider was still there - then there was a whole family and friends standing around that drop

The dad was straddling his bike at the entrance of the next trail blocking it oblivious to this Covid 19 spreading situtation

He then asks to get by me - within inches to help those with the jump .

This is why we have 14,000 cases and growing here in Florida .
 

Leaverite

Rabbitt Bartholomew status
Dec 19, 2017
7,924
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Central Cal
Went for a ride on my local trail

Stayed way back when I came to a slow rider ,

When I thought it would be clear I sped up to my normal pace so I could launch the drop off ahead .

Came around a turn and rider was still there - then there was a whole family and friends standing around that drop

The dad was straddling his bike at the entrance of the next trail blocking it oblivious to this Covid 19 spreading situtation

He then asks to get by me - within inches to help those with the jump .

This is why we have 14,000 cases and growing here in Florida .
Your 14 day count just got restarted...
 

manbearpig

Duke status
May 11, 2009
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Because it’s gotten some attention, here’s the transcript:

Also, but something that’s very important and one of the reasons why I really wanted to come on and talk to you about COVID is there’s this buzz out there in the community that it’s only old people that are getting sick and dying and going to ICUs. But in fact, the Centers for Disease Control came out with this very chilling document a few weeks ago showing that about a third of the very sick people in the hospital are under the age of 40 or 44. So between 20 and 44, young adults, are getting very sick and that word has not gotten out adequately because when this infection first appeared in central China, it was all about older individuals over the age of 70, those with diabetes and hypertension. And we didn’t hear about the young adults. But then for reasons that we don’t understand, we saw this big group in Italy and France and Spain of younger adults and we’re seeing that play out in the US. And the people who listen to you and watch you, it’s a big group between that age of 20 and 44 and they really need to hear that they’re at risk for severe illness despite what they might’ve heard previously.

But I urge people to listen/read the full interview to gain the full context. And a lot of rumors and questions are addressed.
 
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~rwright~

Michael Peterson status
Apr 14, 2015
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So if you bring Covid home and your parents die and all of your gravy is shut off.
What then????
Err,
you keep living until you too, die?

By the way, my Mom died at age 51, of a brain aneurysm in '94, bio-father od'd on heroin in '05,
and my Dad died in '08 from cancer problems. Life goes on, go + live it, enjoy it before yours ends too...
:drowning: