This is about to get worse

[Billy Ocean]

I figure the govt already has access to all phone data

if someone tests positive, you should be able to track everyone they have contact with assuming they carry their phone everywhere they go

the only question is do we want to pull the trigger on this

It would be cool if our govt would treat us like adults, lay the options out and put it to a vote in congress

 

[Billy Ocean]

I wouldn't be surprised if we have that by June.

It would be worse without the social distancing measures.



We can't do that.

Here's what's happening.

Slow it down via lockdown.

It buys time for the CDC to make some plans for the inevitable, discover some forms of treatment, and maybe a miracle.

Get people used to the bodies piling up.

I'm thinking by mid June people will have had enough of being locked down, not working, and watching their businesses implode.

By that time many will be willing to accept the inevitable - that the government has never had the resources in place to deal with a pandemic. That continuing with total lockdown will assuredly mean complete economic collapse and the question of "How are my kids going to eat?"

The population will say we need to get back to work and continue to practice social distancing. Restaurants can open with restrictive seating policies. Bars, events, etc will not be permitted. The second wave will come, possibly not as severe, due to some of the population now having immunity. Lots of deaths still, but by this time triage criteria will be in place to minimize poor use of resources on those who have no real chance of survival.

We are being eased into this.

i agree

but I think we can do better

if we can’t mobilize a better strategy in two months then everyone in DC should be fired

 

[Billy Ocean]

I think June is the absolute latest a shutdown could last

it would be insane if that time was not used to create a concrete strategy to mitigate the risk

 

[casa_mugrienta]

i agree

but I think we can do better

if we can’t mobilize a better strategy in two months then everyone in DC should be fired

It takes more than two months to build an effective strategy when you have nothing in the first place.

The Pandemic Response Team deserved to be fired - they were clearly doing fuckall. All you have to know is it was a Navy guy running it. Cushy bullshit.

 

[VonMeister]

You guys seem pretty confident for going against world health experts and world governments

I guess it’s possible everyone else is wrong

Settled science!!!

 

[casa_mugrienta]

Settled science!!!

We know hospitalization rates for diagnosed cases.
And we know the majority of the population has no immunity.
And we know there is no vaccine.
From there we can make reasonable predictions.

No models needed.

 

[VonMeister]

We know hospitalization rates for diagnosed cases.
And we know the majority of the population has no immunity.
And we know there is no vaccine.
From there we can make reasonable predictions.

No models needed.

Policy is driven by the models.
It turns out the models to date have been wrong and not by a little bit. Not even close.
Should a nationwide policy be built upon faulty models using bad data that makes wild assumptions that are increasingly apparent don't have a chance of being accurate...again not even close.

I get the importance of seeing what could happen, but this needs to be balanced with what is happening and what tertiary benefits or issues can arise from both. Right now it seems to be all based on the worst predictions. It's because politics has taken root and one false move means you don't care about seniors or THE CHILDREN!

There are important things people can do to stop the spread of the virus....but asking a whole nation to shelter in place is stupid.

 

[Billy Ocean]

Policy is driven by the models.
It turns out the models to date have been wrong and not by a little bit. Not even close.
Should a nationwide policy be built upon faulty models using bad data that makes wild assumptions that are increasingly apparent don't have a chance of being accurate...again not even close.

I get the importance of seeing what could happen, but this needs to be balanced with what is happening and what tertiary benefits or issues can arise from both. Right now it seems to be all based on the worst predictions.

There are important things people can do to stop the spread of the virus....but asking a whole nation to shelter in place is stupid.

I agree the entire nation thing is dumb

but it’s a consequence of not having a reasonable plan

the virus is real

the plan is not real

 

[casa_mugrienta]

but it’s a consequence of not having a reasonable plan

This

A catastrophic failure of a constitutionally designated function of government.

 

[JeffRSpicoli]

“So long as they (the Proles) continued to work and breed, their other activities were without importance. Left to themselves, like cattle turned loose upon the plains of Argentina, they had reverted to a style of life that appeared to be natural to them, a sort of ancestral pattern...Heavy physical work, the care of home and children, petty quarrels with neighbors, films, football, beer and above all, gambling filled up the horizon of their minds. To keep them in control was not difficult.”

Man I love Orwell!

 

[ElOgro]

they’re both bad

difference is the U.K. govt had a coherent plan to win the war

what do we have in the US right now?

If I remember right their coherent plan to when the war wouldn’t have been that successful without the US.

A bunch of locked down people that don’t know how to entertain themselves without gadgets.

 

[VonMeister]

This

A catastrophic failure of a constitutionally designated function of government.

There's only so much you can plan for. At this point we don't know the the genesis of the virus...is it man made spread by accidental release? Planning for every scenario is impossible. To plan for pandemics you would need to live like this forever.

I do give you some ground on the failure of government though. The US decided to answer the worlds call for globalism. It built the rest of the worlds economies and gave us cheap stuff we don't need while concentrating wealth in the hands of a few. It also allowed Wall Street to decide where important sh!t is made...like health hardware and medicine. It's so bad that 3M can't tell you where the masks are that they produce are or how to get them. And now NY is accepting 1000 ventilators from China which are probably filled with some sort of poison. Accepting therapeutics from the country that released the virus on the world when we aren't sure it wasn't an act of war yet. This is insanity.

 

[Woke AF]

The Pandemic Response Team deserved to be fired - they were clearly doing fuckall. All you have to know is it was a Navy guy running it. Cushy bullshit.

first ignored for 3 years and gutted and then fired as the virus was developing in Wuhan. Lead by Bolton. If they were so inept their political superiors should be held responsible. That is part of their job.

You'er an idiot.

 

[Your Moms Dildo]

Whew, I don't ever see that backfiring, or being used for something more nefarious

China has this in place now.

You can travel with a clean bill of health certificate (a cert they show on their phone).

I'll look for the link I saw it on.

 

[PRCD]

We know hospitalization rates for diagnosed cases.
And we know the majority of the population has no immunity.
And we know there is no vaccine.
From there we can make reasonable predictions.

No models needed.

I gotta push back on some of this. COVID 19 is killing overwhelmingly the elderly with comorbidities. While it's true we have no immunity (I assume you mean, "antibodies"), none is needed for the younger demographics to recover. It's different than influenza in that regard which kills many from all demographics, but especially those with no antibodies (consider the 1918 flu).

We also know that herd immunity builds completely on its own as people become infected and recover and the virus has no new hosts to infect. The question we're asking in this case is, "How fast can we allow this to spread in order to have tolerable losses amongst (mostly) the elderly assuming our minimal preparedness and excess capacity." "Tolerable" is a moral judgment. The bean counters are never going to allow a lot of extra unused beds, ventilators, and excess capacity in case of a pandemic which is why you've repeatedly said, "We were already running at 90% capacity." They've traded-off profits over lives. Because of their tradeoff, we're being asked to tradeoff jobs and the economy for lives. This is a temporary fix. As Dr. Ioannidis said, job losses, isolation, and economic ruin lead to plenty of deaths also. I can tell you that the R value of unemployment is very high right now and we're not going to tolerate lockdown much longer. We're being eased back into an alternative sooner rather than later IMO.

 

[VonMeister]

Even better....new CDC guidelines.

If you don't know exactly why someone died, classify them as Covid-19.

"The WHO has provided a second code, U07.2, for clinical or epidemiological diagnosis of COVID-19 where a laboratory confirmation is inconclusive or not available."

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coronavirus/Alert-2-New-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf

 

[PRCD]

China has this in place now.

You can travel with a clean bill of health certificate (a cert they show on their phone).

I'll look for the link I saw it on.

China keeps being pushed as a model. The elites say they love the Chinese model. Now we're being told it was successful in this case and we should wish for it. I say we should be careful what we wish for.

 

[rts265]

Fuck China

 

[FecalFace]

I gotta push back on some of this. COVID 19 is killing overwhelmingly the elderly with comorbidities. While it's true we have no immunity (I assume you mean, "antibodies"), none is needed for the younger demographics to recover. It's different than influenza in that regard which kills many from all demographics, but especially those with no antibodies (consider the 1918 flu).

We also know that herd immunity builds completely on its own as people become infected and recover and the virus has no new hosts to infect. The question we're asking in this case is, "How fast can we allow this to spread in order to have tolerable losses amongst (mostly) the elderly assuming our minimal preparedness and excess capacity." "Tolerable" is a moral judgment. The bean counters are never going to allow a lot of extra unused beds, ventilators, and excess capacity in case of a pandemic which is why you've repeatedly said, "We were already running at 90% capacity." They've traded-off profits over lives. Because of their tradeoff, we're being asked to tradeoff jobs and the economy for lives. This is a temporary fix. As Dr. Ioannidis said, job losses, isolation, and economic ruin lead to plenty of deaths also. I can tell you that the R value of unemployment is very high right now and we're not going to tolerate lockdown much longer. We're being eased back into an alternative sooner rather than later IMO.

That would be like Boeing saying what's the "acceptable amount deaths" before we ground the faulty planes.

Because economy.

 

[laidback]

WE HAVE A FUCKING FLU VACCINE

Which is given and offered free or you can get one at CVS on the spot for $30

Stop comparing the flu with COVID, it's dumb.

We are doing something about the flu, raising awareness, vaccinating, testing...

We have & do all that for the flu & still we can have 60,000 deaths.
Is this acceptable?

I cant wait to see how many die when we have covid 19 under control

My point is we've had flu vaccines forever & it's still not fool proof, people die
Virus' mutate
I hope the covid vaccine is more successful than the flu vaccine