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This is about to get worse

VonMeister

VonMeister

Duke status
Apr 26, 2013
20,251
6,977
113
JOE BIDENS RAPE FINGER
Ifallalot said:
Remember when they were all saying 1-2 million?

And still flagellating themselves over 100,000-200,000?
Click to expand...
New York,
April 3, projected beds needed: 61,057.
Actual # hospitalized: 14,810.

Projected ICU beds needed: 11,500.
Actual # in ICU: 3,731.

Tennessee projected 4,080
Tennessee actual 293

Alabama projected 7,522
Alabama actual 212

Why is the modeled projected demand 3-5 times off actual demand in less than 24 hours?

The U of W IHME models, which the US is using to drive policy projected the U.S would need 150,000 hospital beds by today for COVID-19 patients. According to the COVID Tracking Project, about 32,000 have been hospitalized, far short of IHME’s prediction.
 
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K

kidfury

Duke status
Oct 14, 2017
25,144
10,846
113
It’s fuckking over. Pandemic is over. Go to the movies, go out to dinner. Let’s head to the club. Pheww, dodged a bullet
 
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FecalFace

FecalFace

Duke status
Nov 21, 2008
42,338
2,105
113
The Californias
Surfdog said:
As I said almost a month ago here, this COVID-19 is like the flu on steroids.

I should've added, for the elderly and compromised immunity (co-morbidity potentials)

A small minority of younger, "healthy" may succumb also, but a bad flu season does that too, and randomly. Will this will be like a bad flu season x 2, or x 4, when it comes to total deaths, and confirmed cases worldwide (hopefully). Some have said up to 10x flu season deaths, but that's probably absolute worse case, with very little proactive measures, and unlikely still.

A bad flu season affects 1 BILLION world-wide and KILLS 300,000 to 650,000 each year (20k-60k USA EACH YEAR).

Those "seem" to be acceptable deaths in the past. Will they be in the future?
Click to expand...
WE HAVE A FUCKING FLU VACCINE

Which is given and offered free or you can get one at CVS on the spot for $30

Stop comparing the flu with COVID, it's dumb.

We are doing something about the flu, raising awareness, vaccinating, testing...

Social distancing is doing something about COVID. because they're are no other tools at the moment.

Again, survival rate for flu virus for people who end up in the ICU is 80%

It's only 50% for COVID.


No amount of deaths is acceptable.
We are doing something about car safety, airtravel safety.... about everything, but we should stop doing something about COVID because more people die in bathtubs?

It's like the gun turd argument, over and over again.
 
casa_mugrienta

casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
43,819
18,383
113
Petak Island
Surfdog said:
As I said almost a month ago here, this COVID-19 is like the flu on steroids.

I should've added, for the elderly and compromised immunity (co-morbidity potentials)

A small minority of younger, "healthy" may succumb also, but a bad flu season does that too, and randomly. Will this will be like a bad flu season x 2, or x 4, when it comes to total deaths, and confirmed cases worldwide (hopefully). Some have said up to 10x flu season deaths, but that's probably absolute worse case, with very little proactive measures, and unlikely still.

A bad flu season affects 1 BILLION world-wide and KILLS 300,000 to 650,000 each year (20k-60k USA EACH YEAR).
Click to expand...
The majority of the planet is in the first weeks of this.

The majority of the planet has no immunity.

I hope you are right, but science says you are wrong.
 
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casa_mugrienta

casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
43,819
18,383
113
Petak Island
VonMeister said:
New York,
April 3, projected beds needed: 61,057.
Actual # hospitalized: 14,810.

Projected ICU beds needed: 11,500.
Actual # in ICU: 3,731.

Tennessee projected 4,080
Tennessee actual 293

Alabama projected 7,522
Alabama actual 212

Why is the modeled projected demand 3-5 times off actual demand in less than 24 hours?

The U of W IHME models, which the US is using to drive policy projected the U.S would need 150,000 hospital beds by today for COVID-19 patients. According to the COVID Tracking Project, about 32,000 have been hospitalized, far short of IHME’s prediction.
Click to expand...
Because we are still not at peak infection.
 
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FecalFace

FecalFace

Duke status
Nov 21, 2008
42,338
2,105
113
The Californias
casa_mugrienta said:
Infection is part of human existence.

These things will continue to crawl out of wet markets and bushmeat markets.

Those kinds of places are entirely out of our control.

People will die because of it.
Click to expand...
Of course people will always die from things.

The point was that going about business as usual with COVID, because people die in greater numbers from other causes, is a fallacy of epic proportions.

We are doing everything we can about other things that kill, and THIS, what we're doing now, is doing everything we can about COVID, at this point in time.
 
B

Billy Ocean

Duke status
Jan 7, 2017
19,330
2,636
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casa_mugrienta said:
I skipped the part where he delved into the science.

But

He says we might need to stop listening to the doctors?

I'm already hearing doctors saying what he's saying. At least privately.

And I can assure you Fauci likely feels the same way.

He's just going to have to ease people into it.

Unless you get a system of source/contact tracing up and running - something that takes years to put together - you're back to square one.
Click to expand...
China seems to have rigged up the tracing pretty quickly

everyone has an app on their phones that the govt uses to track them

we probably already have this on our phones but no one is upfront about it
 
S

Surfdog

Duke status
Apr 22, 2001
21,817
2,032
113
South coast OR
If we get less than 100k deaths (OK 100k + slightly) from COVID-19 in the USA by say, Sept-Oct of this year.

We keep everyone hunkered down for 5-6 months, not working, cancelling all "events" and many small/medium/even large businesses basically BK and 100's of millions on minimal welfare struggling to keep a roof over head and eat in the USA.

Would that be "worth it"?

At least we'll win the battle against AGW and the planet survives afterall.:p

Victory!!
 
B

Billy Ocean

Duke status
Jan 7, 2017
19,330
2,636
113
You guys seem pretty confident for going against world health experts and world governments

I guess it’s possible everyone else is wrong
 
casa_mugrienta

casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
43,819
18,383
113
Petak Island
Billy Ocean said:
China seems to have rigged up the tracing pretty quickly

everyone has an app on their phones that the govt uses to track them

we probably already have this on our phones but no one is upfront about it
Click to expand...
I would imagine China, along with South Korea and elsewhere in Asia, already had contact tracing programs in place due to their recent battles with SARS and MERS.
 
afoaf

afoaf

Duke status
Jun 25, 2008
49,793
23,414
113
Surfdog said:
If we get less than 100k deaths (OK 100k + slightly) from COVID-19 in the USA by say, Sept-Oct of this year.

We keep everyone hunkered down for 5-6 months, not working, cancelling all "events" and many small/medium/even large businesses basically BK and 100's of millions on minimal welfare struggling to keep a roof over head and eat in the USA.

Would that be "worth it"?

At least we'll win the battle against AGW and the planet survives afterall.:p

Victory!!
Click to expand...
you're being so weird about this...for like three weeks
 
casa_mugrienta

casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
43,819
18,383
113
Petak Island
Surfdog said:
If we get less than 100k deaths (OK 100k + slightly) from COVID-19 in the USA by say, Sept-Oct of this year.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't be surprised if we have that by June.

It would be worse without the social distancing measures.

We keep everyone hunkered down for 5-6 months, not working, cancelling all "events" and many small/medium/even large businesses basically BK and 100's of millions on minimal welfare struggling to keep a roof over head and eat in the USA.

Would that be "worth it"?

At least we'll win the battle against AGW and the planet survives afterall.:p

Victory!!
Click to expand...
We can't do that.

Here's what's happening.

Slow it down via lockdown.

It buys time for the CDC to make some plans for the inevitable, discover some forms of treatment, and maybe a miracle.

Get people used to the bodies piling up.

I'm thinking by mid June people will have had enough of being locked down, not working, and watching their businesses implode.

By that time many will be willing to accept the inevitable - that the government has never had the resources in place to deal with a pandemic. That continuing with total lockdown will assuredly mean complete economic collapse and the question of "How are my kids going to eat?"

The population will say we need to get back to work and continue to practice social distancing. Restaurants can open with restrictive seating policies. Bars, events, etc will not be permitted. The second wave will come, possibly not as severe, due to some of the population now having immunity. Lots of deaths still, but by this time triage criteria will be in place to minimize poor use of resources on those who have no real chance of survival.

We are being eased into this.
 
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