Ifall is correct, Newsom is competent and capable but if he runs he will hit a wall of hate which he may or may not be able to overcome. It would be like running Pelosi, and Gavin has additional ethical baggage in the form of women. The Dems have to run someone who will play well to middle American, suburban, Volvo-driving soccer moms, and Gavin is not that guy.
Neither party is good at this, they both love to run partisan hacks who seem to alienate everyone but their base. IMO it's rooted in gerrymandering and the primary system but I don't see any resolution forthcoming.
Liz Cheney (of all people) nailed it when she said, “And what we’ve done in our politics is create a situation where we’re electing idiots.”