Who had that Bitcoin target price prediction?

Chee-to

Michael Peterson status
Jan 11, 2002
2,428
975
113
The ledge-like drop was probably a liquidation cascade. Because BTC and ETH are considered blue chip assets, lending protocols will allow them to be used as collateral to borrow other digital assets. There is a shitload of leverage unwinding at the moment in the crypto sphere, especially among large VCs that have borrowed on short term scales and are lending on locked long term scales - Celsius, 3AC, etc. Those institutional players have massive debt positions denominated in BTC/ETH from which they have borrowed other assets like USDC, stETH, etc that they cannot easily unwind. When the price of their collateral hits their liquidation point, it gets sold and dumped on the market, lowering the price further, which can then hit other liquidation prices, etc.

Those of you that have been in the market a while remember the June or July 2017 GDAX flash crash, in which a whale set extremely low bids to buy ETH, then market dumped it to intentionally crater the price through liquidations. ETH went from the $300s to $0.10 and back within seconds, the whale made millions of dollars, and crypto exchanges added margin failsafes to prevent a recurrence.
 

r32

Administrator
Staff member
Apr 1, 2005
18,113
9,837
113
Cambria
Yeah, it does. I asked a question. Clearly. You didn't like the support bit (even though there's pics) and when you didn't say what the ledge drop was, I said don't change the subject, jooost answer the fooookn question.
:roflmao:wtf do you mean what happened? The market happened. You realize it goes up, down, and sideways right?

Take a look at this BTC daily chart. We spent very little time in the zone between 19.9 and 28.3. 14 days to be exact. Price moved so fast through this zone, there was not much time for people and bots to buy and sell this area. This area is considered an area of low liquidity.

14 days, BTC went up 42%.

1655598691810.png

When this area of low liquidity is created, quite often we end up flying through the same zone again on the way back down, and in less time. Now look at same zone again.

7 days, BTC went down 30%.

No support in this area so it's relatively easy for a whale/institution to come in and dump it lower. They do this by opening large short positions with BTC they borrowed from exchanges. They'll market sell (going short) large orders to dump the price like this. They know there is almost no support and can more easily control the price move.

Just because it was 20k which is a psych level does not mean it was major support. Looking back on the chart you can see there was very little liquidity in that area and whales capitalized on the opportunity.

1655598718331.png
 

r32

Administrator
Staff member
Apr 1, 2005
18,113
9,837
113
Cambria
Here are more examples of low liquidity zones.

Note how fast we moved through the zone on the way down and on the way up.

1655600184898.png


Crazy triple / quadruple depending on how you count the last one.

1655600515603.png

Here's a double, kind of stacked on top of each other.

1655600686005.png

1655600751025.png

Sometimes they happen on an angle as well, although less common and harder to ID before the second move happens.

1655600904570.png
 

racer1

Tom Curren status
Apr 16, 2014
12,966
15,053
113
Honolulu, Hawaii
That cliff drop gotta be 3AC getting liquidated. Celsius moved their liq number down to 13, if we get there it's gonna take a major dump. Deleting my 15-16K bids. Putting bids in at 13, 12, 9, 8, 7. Not interested in shorting it.
 

LifeOnMars

Michael Peterson status
Jan 14, 2020
3,164
2,106
113
If this crypto thing goes the other way eventually, I'm loading up on dogecoin next round :LOL:
typical of someone like you

you can learn to trade and buy coins with actual utility or invest in :poop: like that

didn't you learn holding the Tomb/Based bags already?
 

Chee-to

Michael Peterson status
Jan 11, 2002
2,428
975
113
That cliff drop gotta be 3AC getting liquidated. Celsius moved their liq number down to 13, if we get there it's gonna take a major dump. Deleting my 15-16K bids. Putting bids in at 13, 12, 9, 8, 7. Not interested in shorting it.
It's been obvious for a while that 3AC are bad actors, but the sh!t coming out about what they've been pulling on the way down is egregious.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Sharkbiscuit

LifeOnMars

Michael Peterson status
Jan 14, 2020
3,164
2,106
113
You're embarrassing yourself
not really, a sensitive softie like yourself might feel embarrassed. I on the other hand couldn't give a fook less :trout:

you have no idea of me as a person, quite different from the kinds of people you associate with :toilet:

and to tell someone how they should be feeling is a typical type of toxic person response :barf:
 
Last edited:

stringcheese

Miki Dora status
Jun 21, 2017
4,047
3,841
113
not really, a sensitive softie like yourself might feel embarrassed. I on the other hand couldn't give a fook less :trout:

you have know idea of me as a person, quite different from the kinds of people you associate with :toilet:

and to tell someone how they should be feeling is a typical type of toxic person response :barf:

Your mom just liked my Instagram post from two years ago in Puerto Vallarta. Tell her I’ll put my swim trunks on for her any time she likes
 
  • Haha
Reactions: casa_mugrienta

LifeOnMars

Michael Peterson status
Jan 14, 2020
3,164
2,106
113
Your mom just liked my Instagram post from two years ago in Puerto Vallarta. Tell her I’ll put my swim trunks on for her any time she likes
clever quips are not your forte, swing and a miss again :applause2:

you haven't left CA in years, who you trying to fool :monkey: