REMINDER: THE ARENA PLATFORM, INC. has no obligation to monitor the Forums. However, THE ARENA PLATFORM, INC. reserves the right to review any materials submitted to or posted on the Forums, and remove, delete, redact or otherwise modify such materials, in its sole discretion and for any reason whatsoever, at any time and from time to time, without notice or further obligation to you. THE ARENA PLATFORM, INC. has no obligation to display or post any materials provided by you. THE ARENA PLATFORM, INC. reserves the right to disclose, at any time and from time to time, any information or materials that we deem necessary or appropriate to satisfy any applicable law, regulation, contract obligation, legal or dispute process or government request. Click on the following hyperlinks to further read the applicable Privacy Policy and Terms of Use.

Sidebar Sidebar

Weather Experts??? Bay Area surf total garbage

K

kool-aid

Michael Peterson status
Aug 28, 2003
3,027
2,619
113
San Francisco
Can anyone that understands weather (and maybe climate change) better than I do explain to me WHAT THE FVCK is going on with the surf this year? Has it been good in So Cal comparatively? Who is scoring in California right now?

We're basically through Oct and this fall has been absolute dog sh!t for surf in SF. Every time you see offshore winds in the forecast, the day before, it turns slight onshore. Is this just an off-year or do I have to move somewhere??? This is getting insane and I'm about to lose it.
 
  • Sad
Reactions: LifeOnMars
TheEl

TheEl

Billy Hamilton status
Oct 31, 2010
1,394
1,376
113
This summer was pretty meh compared to the few previous. Been getting fun around here again. Today was :dancing:
 
LifeOnMars

LifeOnMars

Michael Peterson status
Jan 14, 2020
3,164
2,106
113
La nina maybe? looking the cams you guys had a few nice days up there. has been alright down south, worst winter I could remember was 17-18, hopefully it's not a repeat again.
 
casa_mugrienta

casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
43,705
18,209
113
Petak Island
kool-aid said:
Can anyone that understands weather (and maybe climate change) better than I do explain to me WHAT THE fvvk is going on with the surf this year? Has it been good in So Cal comparatively? Who is scoring in California right now?

We're basically through Oct and this fall has been absolute dog sh!t for surf in SF. Every time you see offshore winds in the forecast, the day before, it turns slight onshore. Is this just an off-year or do I have to move somewhere??? This is getting insane and I'm about to lose it.
Click to expand...
I keep hearing stuff like "Oh it's been really flat the past few years cause climate change" which is bullshit because globally there has been an increase in average swell height and production over the past few years.

In terms of CA, longer term swell production activity (or lack of swell production) for the West Coast has more to do with the PDO than anything.

Long periods (years) of small, crummy surf is to be expected based on the behavior of the PDO.

What helps me is to have a rough idea of the forecast but not pay too much attention until that morning, this helps me manage my expectations.

Also the wind is very unpredictable in general, and I think fall in CA is especially difficult.
 
  • Haha
Reactions: LifeOnMars
Boneroni

Boneroni

Tom Curren status
Mar 5, 2012
12,114
1,947
113
44
Goleta
To me it seems like the weather kinda skipped Fall this year. We have had a handful of decent swells for SoCal so far. It seems like the last 4-5 years winter swells didnt start until Dec.

What trips me out are the really warm days that are in between.
 
  • Like
Reactions: sdsrfr and Woke AF
L

Lohena

OTF status
Oct 30, 2019
307
300
63
kool-aid said:
Can anyone that understands weather (and maybe climate change) better than I do explain to me WHAT THE fvvk is going on with the surf this year? Has it been good in So Cal comparatively? Who is scoring in California right now?

We're basically through Oct and this fall has been absolute dog sh!t for surf in SF. Every time you see offshore winds in the forecast, the day before, it turns slight onshore. Is this just an off-year or do I have to move somewhere??? This is getting insane and I'm about to lose it.
Click to expand...
It's all Obama's fault!!!

I'd say it's climate change. My frustration actually goes back to the summer which I usually enjoy. I used to surf windswell all summer when I lived in Hawaii so SF is normally just a really cold version of that to me.

This year was totally crap though. Normally I believe there's a windswell source up north by Mendocino Point producing steady 8-10 sec chest high waves with moderate onshores for SF. I don't know why but this year the waves were weaker and the winds were stronger. CA had the hottest year on record this summer, but SF seemed even more freezing than normal. My theory is that heat records moved that fetch further south too close to SF.

Then we got winter in October. Normally we have a high pressure system creating dry offshore winds and moderate storms that are far away not bringing weather. Eventually the high pressure breaks and low pressure systems bring in storms making a direct hit on SF. Not only did the high pressure system break early, but a record storm just hit us for any time of year let alone for October.

Not that climate change caused any of this directly, but the probability of these odd patterns is now higher than "normal."

Now will November -December be normal or will we have 6 months of February????????
 
  • Like
Reactions: kool-aid, frontsidegrab and Boneroni
casa_mugrienta

casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
43,705
18,209
113
Petak Island
@Lohena
@kool-aid

Your answer is here:

sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) | El Niño/La Niña Watch & PDO – Ocean Surface Topography from Space

sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov

These are normal patterns that have been occurring for eons.

PDO directly affects climate...

Long periods with shitty surf are completely normal, the PDO tells us this.

Typically these alternating phases of the PDO last 20 to 30 years.

We are currently in the "Shitty surf for CA" cycle aka the warm phase of the PDO...this pushes the jet stream way high.

Ever since I was a grom 29 years ago the old guys have been talking about the waves being so much better and consistent in previous decades.

(That's everywhere I've ever been too.)

Nobody ever says "The waves are so much better now than when I was a kid!"

You get jaded.

Considering this place is full of old guys now this fits the pattern as well.

If I'm not mistaken when most people in the forum came of age the West Coast was in a pattern of pumping swell.
 
  • Like
Reactions: frontsidegrab, Boneroni and Lohena
Duffy LaCoronilla

Duffy LaCoronilla

Duke status
Apr 27, 2016
39,180
28,790
113
Lohena said:
It's all Obama's fault!!!

I'd say it's climate change. My frustration actually goes back to the summer which I usually enjoy. I used to surf windswell all summer when I lived in Hawaii so SF is normally just a really cold version of that to me.

This year was totally crap though. Normally I believe there's a windswell source up north by Mendocino Point producing steady 8-10 sec chest high waves with moderate onshores for SF. I don't know why but this year the waves were weaker and the winds were stronger. CA had the hottest year on record this summer, but SF seemed even more freezing than normal. My theory is that heat records moved that fetch further south too close to SF.

Then we got winter in October. Normally we have a high pressure system creating dry offshore winds and moderate storms that are far away not bringing weather. Eventually the high pressure breaks and low pressure systems bring in storms making a direct hit on SF. Not only did the high pressure system break early, but a record storm just hit us for any time of year let alone for October.

Not that climate change caused any of this directly, but the probability of these odd patterns is now higher than "normal."

Now will November -December be normal or will we have 6 months of February????????
Click to expand...
There is no “normal”. There’s average.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Mr Doof and Boneroni
Duffy LaCoronilla

Duffy LaCoronilla

Duke status
Apr 27, 2016
39,180
28,790
113
casa_mugrienta said:
I keep hearing stuff like "Oh it's been really flat the past few years cause climate change" which is bullshit because globally there has been an increase in average swell height and production over the past few years.

In terms of CA, longer term swell production activity (or lack of swell production) for the West Coast has more to do with the PDO than anything.

Long periods (years) of small, crummy surf is to be expected based on the behavior of the PDO.

What helps me is to have a rough idea of the forecast but not pay too much attention until that morning, this helps me manage my expectations.

Also the wind is very unpredictable in general, and I think fall in CA is especially difficult.
Click to expand...
I‘ve heard that when it’s flat most of the winter it’s because climate change.

I’ve heard when it’s been pumping all winter it’s because climate change….

….from the same person.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
  • Haha
Reactions: ZZ Soft Top, Boneroni, santacruzin and 1 other person
Boneroni

Boneroni

Tom Curren status
Mar 5, 2012
12,114
1,947
113
44
Goleta
casa_mugrienta said:
@Lohena
@kool-aid

Your answer is here:

sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) | El Niño/La Niña Watch & PDO – Ocean Surface Topography from Space

sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov

These are normal patterns that have been occurring for eons.

PDO directly affects climate...

Long periods with shitty surf are completely normal, the PDO tells us this.

Typically these alternating phases of the PDO last 20 to 30 years.

We are currently in the "Shitty surf for CA" cycle aka the warm phase of the PDO...this pushes the jet stream way high.

Ever since I was a grom 29 years ago the old guys have been talking about the waves being so much better and consistent in previous decades.

(That's everywhere I've ever been too.)

Nobody ever says "The waves are so much better now than when I was a kid!"

You get jaded.

Considering this place is full of old guys now this fits the pattern as well.

If I'm not mistaken when most people in the forum came of age the West Coast was in a pattern of pumping swell.
Click to expand...
Great post.

I've kinda given up on predicting any medium or long term swell patterns.
I think I got really disillusioned after ready the el nino thread for years. So much back tracking and hindsight and doesn't actually yield decent data anyway.

IMO, anyone besides climate scientists who attribute single events or even seasons to climate change is just silly.

In fact, most climate scientists who I've heard answer questions along those lines are very quick to say "Climate change is very real, but there's no way we can know how it has affected any single event."

Just my observations. I could be wrong
 
  • Like
Reactions: Tarab_ish and casa_mugrienta
You must log in or register to reply here.

Share this page

Share this page
Top Bottom