Un-official 2021 Tropical action thread

One-Off

Tom Curren status
Jul 28, 2005
14,235
10,435
113
33.8N - 118.4W
Southern California got some this week. :jamon:

Being retired is the bomb. I got two solo or near solo sessions in head high and overhead waves. Today's was also pure glass. I forgot to put sunscreen on and spent three hours staring into the sun but it was worth it.
 

scdad

Legend (inyourownmind)
Mar 20, 2003
452
308
63
San Clemente, CA
Southern California got some this week. :jamon:

Being retired is the bomb. I got two solo or near solo sessions in head high and overhead waves. Today's was also pure glass. I forgot to put sunscreen on and spent three hours staring into the sun but it was worth it.
:jamon: Today was good. Long morning session, followed by after lunch session in trunks. I am a little hypothermic now, though :drowning:
 

potato-nator

Phil Edwards status
Nov 10, 2015
6,066
1,283
113
supposedly a major one headed toward USEC; forecast i saw has it side-swiping
PR and Bahamas...:coffee:
 

GromsDad

Duke status
Jan 21, 2014
54,797
16,676
113
West of the Atlantic. East of the ICW.
This scenario makes me nervous. Still way too far out. Some models have this thing jetting off like Larry and then this one on Windy puts it in a place I don't want to see it with a lack of moving parts to steer it away from the mainland. This model happened to be the one that had Larry nailed early on. Hoping this model underestimates the the cold front that pushes off the coast in a few days.

Capture.jpg

This is not what you want to see if you live anywhere between Savanna and Cape Cod. Windy ECMWF Model for 10/2.

Capture3344.JPG

Meanwhile the GFS Model looks like this for 10/2

GWS.JPG
 

JJJJS

Legend (inyourownmind)
Feb 2, 2017
464
118
43
This scenario makes me nervous. Still way too far out. Some models have this thing jetting off like Larry and then this one on Windy puts it in a place I don't want to see it with a lack of moving parts to steer it away from the mainland. This model happened to be the one that had Larry nailed early on. Hoping this model underestimates the the cold front that pushes off the coast in a few days.

View attachment 116712

This is not what you want to see if you live anywhere between Savanna and Cape Cod. Windy ECMWF Model for 10/2.

View attachment 116714

Meanwhile the GFS Model looks like this for 10/2

View attachment 116716
It looks like Sam is going to follow a similar path to Larry
 

Subway

Administrator
Staff member
Dec 31, 2008
13,539
10,207
113
LBNY
If that GFS model holds, the northeast could easily be twice as big as Larry got. Like once in a generation big (for this part of the world anyway)
 

GromsDad

Duke status
Jan 21, 2014
54,797
16,676
113
West of the Atlantic. East of the ICW.
The models are looking a lot more favorable this morning for Sam. Both are in agreement on the track and intensity. They only really differ on the speed that the storm moves northward once it gets past Bermuda.

Interesting to look at the models this morning and see that the North Pacific is starting to light up. Hawaii should be in for a good run of swell over the next couple of weeks.