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Time to Wax Rhino Chaser
- Thread starter QuadFin
- Start date
From Schecter…
”Sunday 8:10 AM
Everything on track for excessive wet event for October. Accumulating snow probably Monday Morning in town. Freezing level down to Village about 800AM to 900am Monday morning. This is a little earlier now than Fridays guidance. Amounts still look good for 3 to 5 feet above 9,000 feet now as snow level is down about 500 feet during moister portion of event.
Remember, in order to break snowfall record for October, we need close to 68 inches at Snow Plot as there was 18 inches already fallen. Water content is likely to be there either way so precipitation should be enough.
What a way to kick off the water year beginning with October!!!!
9:00AM Update
Latest IVT guidance (GFS) from Scripts IVT puts the October 25th Event in the strong category now as compared to the January 27th event which was moderate, west of Mammoth Pass. The January 27, 2021 event dumped aprox 10 feet of snow on Mammoth Mt. However, this storm is much much warmer. Freezing level above Yosemite is between 9000 to 11,000 feet during the day Sunday during the beginning of the event. However, by Sunday night and especially after midnight, the freezing level begins to come down as indicated; 11:00PM (10,200ft) down to (8900ft) by 5:00AM Monday AM. Between 5:00AM Monday and 11:00AM Monday 8900 to 7100ft. Then 11:00AM Monday to 5:00PM Monday; the Freezing level goes from 7100 to 6700 feet. Then from 6700 to 6100 feet Monday night. It is important to realize that in an saturated airmass, the Freezing level is close to the snow level, within 500 feet. contrarily, micro physical processes can allow snow to fall much further down in elevation from the dendritic growth zone, if temperatures are cold enough in that zone and the vertical motion is favorable. All in all, the main point is, precipitation for the Month of October may be historic for Mammoth Mt, whether we get the additional snowfall of 68 inches in addition to the 18 inches the mountain has already received.”
”Sunday 8:10 AM
Everything on track for excessive wet event for October. Accumulating snow probably Monday Morning in town. Freezing level down to Village about 800AM to 900am Monday morning. This is a little earlier now than Fridays guidance. Amounts still look good for 3 to 5 feet above 9,000 feet now as snow level is down about 500 feet during moister portion of event.
Remember, in order to break snowfall record for October, we need close to 68 inches at Snow Plot as there was 18 inches already fallen. Water content is likely to be there either way so precipitation should be enough.
What a way to kick off the water year beginning with October!!!!
9:00AM Update
Latest IVT guidance (GFS) from Scripts IVT puts the October 25th Event in the strong category now as compared to the January 27th event which was moderate, west of Mammoth Pass. The January 27, 2021 event dumped aprox 10 feet of snow on Mammoth Mt. However, this storm is much much warmer. Freezing level above Yosemite is between 9000 to 11,000 feet during the day Sunday during the beginning of the event. However, by Sunday night and especially after midnight, the freezing level begins to come down as indicated; 11:00PM (10,200ft) down to (8900ft) by 5:00AM Monday AM. Between 5:00AM Monday and 11:00AM Monday 8900 to 7100ft. Then 11:00AM Monday to 5:00PM Monday; the Freezing level goes from 7100 to 6700 feet. Then from 6700 to 6100 feet Monday night. It is important to realize that in an saturated airmass, the Freezing level is close to the snow level, within 500 feet. contrarily, micro physical processes can allow snow to fall much further down in elevation from the dendritic growth zone, if temperatures are cold enough in that zone and the vertical motion is favorable. All in all, the main point is, precipitation for the Month of October may be historic for Mammoth Mt, whether we get the additional snowfall of 68 inches in addition to the 18 inches the mountain has already received.”
Strongest storm ever in Bay Area? Oregon Buoy 38'
Another Ark Storm? 
www.usgs.gov
ARkStorm | U.S. Geological Survey
The SAFRR project’s second scenario, called ARkStorm, addresses massive U.S. West Coast storms analogous to those that devastated California in 1861–62. Storms of this magnitude are projected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. The SAFRR project assembled experts...
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Ham radio operators are prone to swooning. That said anyone who wants to talk on 70 cm, 2 or 10 m HMU.
