Out and about in Wuhan :)

JBerry

Billy Hamilton status
Dec 8, 2017
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Anyone know any backstory/history on coronavirus? Conspiracy theory/facts sheit, etc.
I've been hearing quite a few things coming up that are just kinda crazy/scary?

This guy Frank Plummer, read up on him.


and this whole fishmarket place in Wuhan where it was supposedly discovered in bats for sale, at a fishmarket. uh huh, right, bats for sale that had the corona virus, at a fishmarket. hmmm :unsure:

Apparently the covid19 is more closer related to HIV, sars, mers, than the flu or pneumonia. which wouldn't help our causes much if there is no stinkin cure for it!
 

JBerry

Billy Hamilton status
Dec 8, 2017
1,602
872
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This is almost flat earther sh!t, but also what I'm wondering about......
 

JBerry

Billy Hamilton status
Dec 8, 2017
1,602
872
113
Apparently, ‘For anyone wondering, #Wuhan, China is now a few days into lock down week 6.’

can you imagine this happening here? No Erbb for 6 weeks?
 

GWS_2

Miki Dora status
Aug 3, 2019
4,141
4,391
113

This is almost flat earther sh!t, but also what I'm wondering about......
I had somebody tell me it was a virus engineered by China and released among Hong Kong protestors.

"Have you heard anything about protests in Hong Kong lately?"

Me: "Uhhhh... no?"

"Exactly."

It's more like the protests are going on still, but nobody cares because Virus.
 

everysurfer

Phil Edwards status
Sep 9, 2013
6,713
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Santa Barbara County

Mr Doof

Duke status
Jan 23, 2002
24,959
7,891
113
San Francisco, CA
The headline says there are 90305 cases, and of those cases 3087 died.

3087/90305 = 0.03418

0.03418 * 100 = 3.4% die
 

Mr Doof

Duke status
Jan 23, 2002
24,959
7,891
113
San Francisco, CA
^ Is that the right way to come up with a total death rate?

If you are taking a subset of total cases (in this case 'closed') and applying total deaths, outcome would appear to not take into account those who recovered.

Since we are concerned to know outcome for all effected people, I don't think it is good statistics to only look at 'closed' cases. # of know cases vs # of known deaths seems to me to be better.

But I am not an epidemiologist, so.......
 

everysurfer

Phil Edwards status
Sep 9, 2013
6,713
1,811
113
Santa Barbara County
Its the correct way to look at it.

If you want the final death rate, then look at closed cases. When it's over 6% will be dead, and 94% will be alive. With a sample size of 90,000, that's pretty good, allowing for government downplay.

The open cases will distribute themselves accordingly.

18% critical. That means financially wiped out.

6% dead

92% chance you will be fine in the end.

Oh, yea, factor in the older you are, the worse odds you have.

We're both old.

Stay safe:sick:
 

Surfdog

Duke status
Apr 22, 2001
21,817
2,032
113
South coast OR
There's a LOT of people that have it, that aren't even aware, or have just average flu symptoms, don't get critical, get better and it's never reported.

There's likely some of these in the USA already, along with many other more heavily infected countries.
 

Mr Doof

Duke status
Jan 23, 2002
24,959
7,891
113
San Francisco, CA
See, the problem I have with the reasoning at that website is this:

1) New germ is out there.

2) 10 people get sick, 10 people get tested, 10 people all test + for the same germ

3) At one time, there were 10 active cases and 0 deaths, later on, the one death and 5 active cases, and 4 closed. then later 1 death and 1 active and 8 closed.

4) A month later, all 9 survivors get tested and are germ free

5) What is the death rate? 10% right?

I get that since we are all in the middle of this pandemic (I don't get why WHO hasn't declared it because well, it is on every continent, except for the one NASA won't let anyone go to), one can attempt to measure the flux using statistics. I think there is room for over-estimating things using intermediate statistical analysis...though I admit this might better show things if one thinks that not everyone who gets COVID-19 actually gets a confirmed diagnosis.
 

everysurfer

Phil Edwards status
Sep 9, 2013
6,713
1,811
113
Santa Barbara County
See, the problem I have with the reasoning at that website is this:

1) New germ is out there.

2) 10 people get sick, 10 people get tested, 10 people all test + for the same germ

3) At one time, there were 10 active cases and 0 deaths, later on, the one death and 5 active cases, and 4 closed. then later 1 death and 1 active and 8 closed.

4) A month later, all 9 survivors get tested and are germ free

5) What is the death rate? 10% right?

I get that since we are all in the middle of this pandemic (I don't get why WHO hasn't declared it because well, it is on every continent, except for the one NASA won't let anyone go to), one can attempt to measure the flux using statistics. I think there is room for over-estimating things using intermediate statistical analysis...though I admit this might better show things if one thinks that not everyone who gets COVID-19 actually gets a confirmed diagnosis.
Math is hard. I leave it to the professionals