*** Official Corona Virus Thread ***

Autoprax

Duke status
Jan 24, 2011
69,103
23,685
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Vagina Point
I looked at the # of ICU admissions for flu a while back and it was pretty low, I think something like 1% but don't quote me.




It is.

Some of these people spend 2-3 wks + on the vent.

Then you have the recovery process, like the fact your legs are atrophied after not moving in a bed for weeks on end (on top of everything else)
Isn't there cognitive damage too?

What a clusterfuck.
 

casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
43,984
18,595
113
Petak Island
Untrue! Peer reviewed medical research absolutely does not say this! Incomplete assumptive non peer reviewed models do!
You can think (or in your case feel) what you want.

This is not based on models, it is based on actual admissions. The 3 peer reviewed journal articles I've seen show hospital admission rates of 15%, 18%, and 20%.

So far, as I posted earlier, San Diego has a 20% admission rate.
 

stringcheese

Miki Dora status
Jun 21, 2017
4,122
4,004
113
You can not extrapolate the number of cases requiring hospitalization at any point in the future from a set of data that does not include an accurate figure for the percentage of cases requiring hospitalization now. You would just have to guess.
 

casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
43,984
18,595
113
Petak Island
Can you explain this further? Is this a worse rate than the flu? Are the people needing hospitalization in WORSE shape than flu patients and therefore need more care?

There are more of them that need hospitalization and more of them that need ICU care.

So I guess you could say sicker than the average flu patient.
 

casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
43,984
18,595
113
Petak Island
You can not extrapolate the number of cases requiring hospitalization at any point in the future from a set of data that does not include an accurate figure for the percentage of cases requiring hospitalization now. You would just have to guess.
You are pretending there is no accurate figure for percentage of cases requiring hospitalization now.
 

PRCD

Tom Curren status
Feb 25, 2020
12,939
9,007
113
There are more of them that need hospitalization and more of them that need ICU care.

So I guess you could say sicker than the average flu patient.
Thanks. Not Just Flu, but not we're not going to be driving our 4x4s over pyramids of dead bodies either.
 

Kento

Duke status
Jan 11, 2002
69,343
21,876
113
The Bar
Thanks. Not Just Flu, but not we're not going to be driving our 4x4s over pyramids of dead bodies either.
I knew I was right when I told my fellow suburbanites that lifted pickup trucks were a waste of time.

Besides, the car gets more satisfaction when the undercarriage is massaged with flesh.
 
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casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
43,984
18,595
113
Petak Island
Thanks. Not Just Flu, but not we're not going to be driving our 4x4s over pyramids of dead bodies either.
Unless we exceed capacity to a great extent ...OR run out of PPE (big problem - I will not work without PPE as it is dangerous to self and counterproductive)... OR are unable to test due to lack of reagent (looming problem)
 

casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
43,984
18,595
113
Petak Island
So you guyz in the medical field came to this Super Bowl of "Flu',
under~prepared, without enough beds, respirators, masks, nor test kits, correct?
Hmmm...

Yes, that's right - it's the fault of all the doctors and nurses out there!

The lack of preparedness of the federal government to handle a pandemic of this nature is our fault!

Dumb to think FEMA and the CDC would have something like this covered.

How many many pairs of disposable goggles, disposable gowns, gloves, PAPR hoods and PAPR machines should I have stashed in my house?

Also, how many hospital beds should I have stashed in a warehouse?
 

~rwright~

Michael Peterson status
Apr 14, 2015
2,544
971
113
Los Angeles~California!
^^^^^
Just talkin' story, bro.

You've been to Hawaii, right?
Ever visited Pearl Harbor, thee sunken USS Arizona?

After Pearl Harbor was attacked, well General Short and Admiral Kimmel were held responsible.
Why was the USA so unprepared for the attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941?

You don't think some heads will roll because the USA was not better prepared,
even with adequate warning for Covid19, like as at Pearl Harbor?
 
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stringcheese

Miki Dora status
Jun 21, 2017
4,122
4,004
113
You are pretending there is no accurate figure for percentage of cases requiring hospitalization now.
I'm acknowledging that there is no accurate figure for percentage of cases requiring hospitalization right now. You are taking a tiny bit of very much location specific information about a very small sample size and treating it like it is significant enough to build on.
 
Feb 12, 2020
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Where is responsibility except for each his own when the poor start being foodless it could be ugly.
Trump says he inherited a testing system that was broken? So why blame him? Because he was informed of this!
He had a good few years to fix it; but blame the broken system now it is needed to function on the old admin!
100,000 dead plus Trump says massive ODs and suicides to follow. Looking ahead for himself not for his constituents!
Whatever tilting against windmills here as the right wingers want to keep ahold of whatever they think they earned for themselves.
 

casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
43,984
18,595
113
Petak Island
I'm acknowledging that there is no accurate figure for percentage of cases requiring hospitalization right now. You are taking a tiny bit of very much location specific information about a very small sample size and treating it like it is significant enough to build on.
You are wrong.

We have statistics about hospitalization rates from China, other areas of Asia, and Europe.

These have been published in peer-reviewed journals and have been consistent.

The US rates are in progress, but are consistent with the aforementioned real-life data.

I published the local data from San Diego to demonstrate they are on par with those in the rest of the developed world, NOT to build on, but to show it fits with the published real-life data.

This is not modeling, it's the real thing.
 
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bigtuna

Billy Hamilton status
Apr 29, 2010
1,558
88
48
NE
I'm acknowledging that there is no accurate figure for percentage of cases requiring hospitalization right now. You are taking a tiny bit of very much location specific information about a very small sample size and treating it like it is significant enough to build on.
Should I worry about COVID-19?


Illness due to COVID-19 infection is generally mild, especially for children and young adults. However, it can cause serious illness: about 1 in every 5 people who catch it need hospital care. It is therefore quite normal for people to worry about how the COVID-19 outbreak will affect them and their loved ones.
is it really a small sample size from a specific location when the world health organization has it on their website?

your point about not knowing the true number of cases is correct, since not everyone in the country is tested. But there are places where they've conducted widespread testing for certain areas, maybe the WHO is more heavily weighing those numbers? Or, maybe theyre just using the data that they have because they acknowledge that there is no psychic covid19 test analyzer that can give an exact number for an entire population. There is going to be slight room for error in any statistic, that doesnt mean they should be ignored.