Catastrophic Sea Level Rise

Aquaman2

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grapedrink

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Another thing to add about S Florida is that surveying equipment is now GPS based. No more hunting for benchmarks and using transit and rulers….

so unless the entire GPS system has been altered to reflect sinking land, the roads that are now flooded are exactly where they were 50 years ago.
We didn't have survey grade mm accuracy GPS 50 years ago. Maybe 20 years ago we did? The elevation is value is also less precise than the XY.

Also, land can subside without sinking roadways. You can see this all over California in the farming areas where groundwater pumping sinks the ground on both sides of the road, and the road stays elevated.

Again- not saying sea level rise isn't happening but it is not as catastrophic as we have been led to believe and there are other factors at play.
 

hal9000

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We didn't have survey grade mm accuracy GPS 50 years ago. Maybe 20 years ago we did? The elevation is value is also less precise than the XY.

Also, land can subside without sinking roadways. You can see this all over California in the farming areas where groundwater pumping sinks the ground on both sides of the road, and the road stays elevated.

Again- not saying sea level rise isn't happening but it is not as catastrophic as we have been led to believe and there are other factors at play.
suddenly everyone is a geomorphology expert.

isn't there a point at which you accept an explanation from the guy who actually works in that field or does everyone here have to be a know-it-all blowhard 100% of the time?
 
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StuAzole

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suddenly everyone is a geomorphology expert.

isn't there a point at which you accept an explanation from the guy who actually works in that field or does everyone here have to be a know-it-all blowhard 100% of the time?
The weird part is that you can look at the data, acknowledge that sea levels have risen and still not have to accept global warming as the cause. Instead, they deny it’s happening at all.
 
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twinzerfan

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suddenly everyone is a geomorphology expert.

isn't there a point at which you accept an explanation from the guy who actually works in that field or does everyone here have to be a know-it-all blowhard 100% of the time?
to be fair, I’m not an expert.

But, I do work for and with a local municipality and look at surveys, elevation certificates and storm water management design for my job. I’m a licensed structural plan reviewer, studying for Flood Plain Management certification, and worked for the public works department (roads, utilities, storm water) for a couple years reviewing large and small projects in south Florida.

There’s a point where you just have to switch off the noise and get on with life….
 

twinzerfan

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We didn't have survey grade mm accuracy GPS 50 years ago. Maybe 20 years ago we did? The elevation is value is also less precise than the XY.

Also, land can subside without sinking roadways. You can see this all over California in the farming areas where groundwater pumping sinks the ground on both sides of the road, and the road stays elevated.

Again- not saying sea level rise isn't happening but it is not as catastrophic as we have been led to believe and there are other factors at play.
yes, all of this is true.

edit: hit submit before I was done…

Im not going to say anything about anything I haven’t seen firsthand. And, if I get motivated enough, I’ll take some pictures next time I’m in thinking about this during my commute up A1A.

There may be some subsidence in the land, but the area (in South Florida) I’m talking about is 4-5 counties, and not all built on sand. The aquifer here does get drained, but it is also suffering from saltwater intrusion, so that argument is not supported fully (no pun)

what i see most is the ocean overtopping seawalls that were obviously designed at a height to prevent that, and saltwater filling up the storm drainage and flowing into the streets causing flooding.

as I said before, the building code here now stipulates a minimum elevation for participation in the national flood insurance program. It is also part of your homeowners policy - your elevation certificate. This is partially driven by the private sector having to pay out for flooding.

it gets so bad in some areas that there was a local news report from one of the big money neighborhoods in Miami that because of sea level rise, the real estate market was down because the rich folk couldn’t get there yachts under the bridge.

so, no, it is not a Noahs Ark moment. But it is indeed happening at the moment and will continue.
 
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Ifallalot

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suddenly everyone is a geomorphology expert.

isn't there a point at which you accept an explanation from the guy who actually works in that field or does everyone here have to be a know-it-all blowhard 100% of the time?
"JUST BELIEVE WHAT YOU'RE TOLD"
 

hal9000

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to be fair, I’m not an expert.

But, I do work for and with a local municipality and look at surveys, elevation certificates and storm water management design for my job. I’m a licensed structural plan reviewer, studying for Flood Plain Management certification, and worked for the public works department (roads, utilities, storm water) for a couple years reviewing large and small projects in south Florida.

There’s a point where you just have to switch off the noise and get on with life….
so closer to an expert than anyone else here.
 

grapedrink

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suddenly everyone is a geomorphology expert.
No, I'm simply quoting an anecdote just like the poster I quoted did :poke:

isn't there a point at which you accept an explanation from the guy who actually works in that field or does everyone here have to be a know-it-all blowhard 100% of the time?
Uh, I worked in the GIS/GPS arena for several years, so I am familiar with that tech and where it was at in terms of accuracy at the time. So yes, I am allowed to comment.

And do you think that the F1A anecdote is more valid than 100s of harbor measurements in the exact same place that have been measured regularly for decades upon decades :unsure: :roflmao:
 

grapedrink

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The weird part is that you can look at the data, acknowledge that sea levels have risen and still not have to accept global warming as the cause. Instead, they deny it’s happening at all.
I'm not denying it. What I'm calling into question is the proclaimed severity of it. I thought we were supposed to be underwater by now :unsure:

We clearly have a media and regulatory environment with a vested interest in the issue, and for that reason I'm skeptical. Especially when it comes to new legislation and taxation to "mitigate" it.
 
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StuAzole

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No, I'm simply quoting an anecdote just like the poster I quoted did :poke:


Uh, I worked in the GIS/GPS arena for several years, so I am familiar with that tech and where it was at in terms of accuracy at the time. So yes, I am allowed to comment.

And do you think that the F1A anecdote is more valid than 100s of harbor measurements in the exact same place that have been measured regularly for decades upon decades :unsure: :roflmao:
So you’re telling us that harbormasters across the country have data that disproves sea levels have risen over the past 100 years or so?

Link?
 
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StuAzole

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I'm not denying it. What I'm calling into question is the proclaimed severity of it. I thought we were supposed to be underwater by now :unsure:

We clearly have a media and regulatory environment with a vested interest in the issue, and for that reason I'm skeptical. Especially when it comes to new legislation and taxation to "mitigate" it.
You’re talking about predicting the future. I’m fine if you don’t trust the models. Models aren’t perfect.

Grimsdad posted a meme suggesting there has been no sea level rise at all over the past century or so. Is that open for debate?
 

twinzerfan

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so closer to an expert than anyone else here.
i can only say what I’ve seen with my own eyes according to a certain poster here….

and no, I don’t have or care enough to spend my time looking for an old picture to share my experience @GromsDad

i deal with this every day, so I don’t feel the need to constantly justify my position
 

grapedrink

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So you’re telling us that harbormasters across the country have data that disproves sea levels have risen over the past 100 years or so?

Link?
No- it shows that sea level rise is far slower than the hyperbolic estimates. It also shows that in many parts of the globe there is a decrease in sea level.

If you were to average out all of the figures, which make up the best dataset we have, it would probably be around 1 ft per century.
 

grapedrink

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Grimsdad posted a meme suggesting there has been no sea level rise at all over the past century or so. Is that open for debate?
Agreed. Using any one single data point is dumb, which is the point I am making with using an average of all the datapoints to control for variations in land subsidence and other geological activity.
 

GromsDad

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West of the Atlantic. East of the ICW.
“Tidal variability is like 5 feet or so in this area,” said Jacqueline Austermann, an assistant professor at Columbia University who studies sea level change. “Depending on what time of the day this picture was taken, you could have tens of centimeters difference just because of tidal variability.”
Statue of Liberty photos don’t disprove sea level rise | AP News
The marine growth line is very telling when you compare the pictures more so than where the actual water is in the pictures. Obviously the water goes up and down with the tide. The marine growth line plainly visible in both pictures does not go up and down with the tide.
 

GromsDad

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West of the Atlantic. East of the ICW.
Casting pearls to swine, I know, but here you go:


"California’s coast could face sea-level rise (SLR) of up to 1 foot by 2050 and 3.5 feet by 2100, threatening our coastal communities, way of life, and sense of Californian identity. According to California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment, 31 to 67 percent of Southern California beaches may completely erode by 2100 without intervention. "

Not my agency but here's a community update for you and they are seeking public comment on Sea Level Rise Guidance so here's a chance for both you and Surfdog to put your money where your mouth is. Or you can maintain regurgitating talk radio rants and not much else.

So I have nothing to worry about until I'm at least 130 years old. I hope we can reconvene on this topic here on this forum in the year 2100 to see if your source was right or wrong. I'll bet $1 the sea doesn't rise 3.5 feet.
 

Phi1

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Tl;Dr but isn’t sea level rise just one facet of human caused/accelerated climate change that us chicken littles are freaking out about?

Cycles of extreme weather with more severe storms, drought (wildfire season is going to be really bad this fall if not next in the west) incidents of ocean temperatures rising and extensive coral bleaching.

Its great we’re labeled a climate cult because we’re listening to scientists who have a conflict of interest (they are supposedly paid to hype man made global warming).

Meanwhile there is ample evidence the petroleum industry pays people to specifically say climate change is not real, green energy alternatives kill birds and require extensive mining (because the oil industry would never disrupt our precious earth).

No conflict of interest there.