CA storm this weekend

[Mr Doof]

Looks like this paragraph could explain some of the discrepancies between forecasts, hype, outcomes:

LA Times (source)





From what I recall of those meteorological classes I took way back when, a great forecast is only valid for 4 hours...I would hope that this time frame has expanded somewhat in the decades. But changing forecasts plays havoc with messaging from any entity, not to mention with actual humans......change is hard after all.

Anyway, looks like Arizona/new Mexico is now dealing with the moving storm...

But no matter what, two is a handful....

Sometimes I wonder how dear old mom dealt with 5 of us (all within an 8 year timeframe)....but I guess part of her handling it would explain me having to walk to kindergarten many time, weather permitting....though when it was snowy or icy, had to walk too, and boy, that was magical.

I know, I know, different times, different places, so I guess the point is that my folks weren't any different in skills and income than a whole host of others, so if they could do it, most others could do it too.

Lastly , when one of my brother-in-laws died, well the lead up was super tough for a few years, but man, when he died, it wrecked that family for about 3 years, like totally wrecked them.

 

[enframed]

Sounds like you need some pussy on the side. Pussy solves all.

Does it help you expel COVID vaccine out of your body?

 

[nolibos]

@Kento...Thanks for speaking about your hard time/s. You are not alone. Maybe one of these weekends we can meet up for a run.

 

[Muscles]

Thanks. Surf isn't a reliable option right now when it comes to output vs input. Causes more frustration than joy. Focusing on running helps, especially as I am getting better fast and am actually getting positive returns. Replacing drinking with running as a stress reliever was good, though. But it's the time aspect that is killing me. I can barely breathe. And am on a fucking island up here.

Catch-22: Both wife and I desparately need to widen our social circle but have neither time or mental/emotional energy to pursue any friendships of any depth. It's a rough spiral.

Bit late here but I've been in your position. I have 4 kids (two of which are 10 mo old twins) and am the sole income for my family and have been for the last 8 years. We lived in Hawaii and SD so I know the stress of finances and life just beating the sh!t out of you at times.

Here is what I found helped me through the hard times. Every day set a time for a workout or surf. Doesn't have to be for long. Keep it under an hour. But just keep giving yourself 30 - 60 min of exercise of some sort where your mind only focuses on one task and you can forget about everything else. It does wonders for the stress. You have to force yourself to do it. Some days I just walk out of my office and take a few walks around campus to destress.

I know all too well how easy it gets to make excuses and bury yourself in work. I stole this from someone but you being the provider for your household means you need to put your oxygen mask on first and make sure you are taking care of yourself.

Hang in there.

 

[john4surf]

@Kento...Thanks for speaking about your hard time/s. You are not alone. Maybe one of these weekends we can meet up for a run.

That would be awesome nolibos, better than awesome. The therapeutic effects for both of you would be golden, wish I lived closer to you guys and wasn’t in my twilight years. Two gents I would like to be around for sure. John

 

[PRCD]

I just drove in SD county and the freeway signs warn of severe weather and to use extreme caution, but it's raining lightly. This seems to be like COVID and its aftermath - we derive meaning from crisis and alarm since we have dispensed with the traditional means. We accumulate the effects from previous panics like the social distancing stickers still up 3-4 years later. Maybe we just need a general alarm telling everyone to panic constantly.

 

[StuAzole]

I just drove in SD county and the freeway signs warn of severe weather and to use extreme caution, but it's raining lightly. This seems to be like COVID and its aftermath - we derive meaning from crisis and alarm since we have dispensed with the traditional means. We accumulate the effects from previous panics like the social distancing stickers still up 3-4 years later. Maybe we just need a general alarm telling everyone to panic constantly.

The horror!

You could be right. Or maybe they kept them on because many of the roadways are still flooded. Or maybe they just haven’t turned them off yet.

But probably what you said lol.

 

[Kento]

@Kento...Thanks for speaking about your hard time/s. You are not alone. Maybe one of these weekends we can meet up for a run.

Thanks. Appreciate it and that would definitely be cool. There are a lot of places and trails up here that I have yet to explore too.

 

[Bob Dobbalina]

I just drove in SD county and the freeway signs warn of severe weather and to use extreme caution, but it's raining lightly. This seems to be like COVID and its aftermath - we derive meaning from crisis and alarm since we have dispensed with the traditional means. We accumulate the effects from previous panics like the social distancing stickers still up 3-4 years later. Maybe we just need a general alarm telling everyone to panic constantly.

I mean, have you driven the 78?

 

[PRCD]

I mean, have you driven the 78?

If you want my advice, panic now.

 

[StuAzole]

If you want my advice, panic now.

It’s interesting you equate “use caution“ with “panic.”

 

[Random Guy]

Looks like this paragraph could explain some of the discrepancies between forecasts, hype, outcomes:

LA Times (source)


View attachment 172319


From what I recall of those meteorological classes I took way back when, a great forecast is only valid for 4 hours...I would hope that this time frame has expanded somewhat in the decades. But changing forecasts plays havoc with messaging from any entity, not to mention with actual humans......change is hard after all.

Anyway, looks like Arizona/new Mexico is now dealing with the moving storm...

I was sarcastically saying to my buddies while in Tahoe that I expect a full post mortem on the forecasting of this storm. So it’s interesting that someone is talking about how they got it wrong
But I still don’t see how they forecast 32 and 17 inches of snow Sunday and Monday, and got 12 or maybe 15 and 6
Just way off
What went wrong and what measures are being taken to protect against repeating these mistakes!?!??

 

[dcunited]

It is hard to believe that my daughter will be driving in 4.5 years, less if she steals my car. It gives me anxiety and I do put the over/under of her getting tazed by the cops at 10 days and that's generous on the over. Can't even get through the morning without bullshit like her stomping on my son's chest but WTF is he doing flopping around on the ground like a goldfish. Lots of good moments too.

A couple days for family to ski/ride this weekend will be nice. Having the season passes bought and paid for does help that and we are getting better at economizing those trips.

So much of the strain is financial as we are trying to give the kids a pretty damn good life and we do but it's a super thin line. And as pretty much the sole breadwinner, it's a lot of pressure.




If either of them have kids, I will get my revenge by filling them with sugar right before giving them back.

You're probably aware but the cost of resort lunches is beyond outrageous. If you're looking to save some cash..and eat better food..think about brown bagging it. I typically throw some charcuterie in a back pack..proscuito and salame from Trader Joes, slice up some emmental or gruyere or whatever you prefer beforehand, put some crackers and fruit in a tin as they'll get smashed in a backpack along with some chocolate. Voila..a pretty tasty lunch. Everything (except the crackers and possibly fruit) are backpack friendly.

 

[hammies]

I was sarcastically saying to my buddies while in Tahoe that I expect a full post mortem on the forecasting of this storm. So it’s interesting that someone is talking about how they got it wrong
But I still don’t see how they forecast 32 and 17 inches of snow Sunday and Monday, and got 12 or maybe 15 and 6
Just way off
What went wrong and what measures are being taken to protect against repeating these mistakes!?!??

Mammoth got 4 feet this week. Sometimes these AR storms roll up the backside of the Sierras more than the frontside (i.e. Tahoe).

 

[Random Guy]

Mammoth got 4 feet this week. Sometimes these AR storms roll up the backside of the Sierras more than the frontside (i.e. Tahoe).

So that’s the post mortem?
They got the snow amounts right, but off by a few miles?
Ok, that’s something I guess

 

[Sharkbiscuit]

I dunno how spot-specific forecasts for snowfall can be faulted. The exact little wobbles in the storm can make or break the few thousands acres a given ski resort is on. Take a place like Colorado. A storm like this might be good for Wolf Creek, Silverton, Purgatory, etc. Another storm might be good for Steamboat and Aspen. Yet another might coincide with SSE/SE flow and Gulf moisture will see the dumps on Winter Park or Monarch or Front Range stuff. They tell you the Tetons in Wyoming will get XYZ inches of snow. Usually, that means Targhee gets 10", Jackson gets 2-4". Unless the center of the spinning comma has the flow ESE, the moisture swings through the Snake River Valley, curls around. West-exposed Targhee gets fucked and Jackson gets dumped on.

 

[dcunited]

So that’s the post mortem?
They got the snow amounts right, but off by a few miles?
Ok, that’s something I guess

The weekend storm came in pretty warm so the snow to liquid ratio was pretty bad for Tahoe, but far better for Mammoth. For instance last Sat was epic with the cold temps overnight Fri, but Sun/Mon was classic sierra cement in Tahoe. Also for the last couple months these storms keep on splitting so socal is getting more (relatively speaking) than we are up here. I've been told that pattern happens often in El Nino years, I don't really know.

This season is defintiely been pro Mammoth up till now.

 

[grapedrink]

Bit late here but I've been in your position. I have 4 kids (two of which are 10 mo old twins)

Seems that a lot of people with twins end up with them when it's for what they think will be kid #3

 

[sdsrfr]

So that’s the post mortem?
They got the snow amounts right, but off by a few miles?
Ok, that’s something I guess

intensification vs storm track

two different beasts. theyre getting better at the former and still having difficulty with the latter.

impact based forecasting has also entered the chat.

 

[Sharkbiscuit]

Seems that a lot of people with twins end up with them when it's for what they think will be kid #3

Beware framing's effect on the framer.

Parents with twins for what they think will be kid #3 represent the same subset of parents of twins as Crossfiters do for exercisers and vegans do for dieters. They tellin' errrbody.