Its called weather you dummy!

[GromsDad]

Any time someone points out record cold in the winter someone always chimes in that its just the weather. Guess what.......ITS FOOKING JULY!!!!! Its supposed to be hot you fooking moron.

http://thehill.com/homenews/395054-al-gore-warns-of-record-breaking-heat

 

[Lance Mannion]

I saw 102 in Blythe one night, and that was in the early 90's, before Climate Change and Global Warming.....don't think we were still in Global Cooling though, probably the transition period between Global Cooling and Global Warming but definitely before the Climate Change re-brand. It feels like we're sticking with Climate Change since Climate Chaos never really wowed anybody.

 

[studog]

6th named hurricane in the EPAC so far. earliest in the history of ever to have that many so earlier. Not even mega season 2014 pre-El Nino was it that early. either we're experiencing radical weather changes from manmade causes or another El Nino is forming rapidly

 

[FecalFace]

Science is elitist!

 

[GromsDad]

6th named hurricane in the EPAC so far. earliest in the history of ever to have that many so earlier.

When you say "Earliest in history"..........how far back does history go?

30 years?
300 years?
3,000 years?

How far back does the accurate detection and reporting of hurricanes in the eastern pacific go back?

 

[Mr Doof]

Figuring out the past (in part to try to understand the future) via the scientific method (such as limnology and dendrochronology) produces lots and lots of small facts.

People use these small facts to build up an hypothesis, then get it out there for peer review.

The ideas that hold up, are used to describe how things work according to our best current knowledge.

When new ideas come along, if they better describe what is going on or predict things better, old ideas are let go.

Right now, our man-made historical records are not all that great in terms of geological time, but the earth time records through study of lakes, rivers, earth, stone, sedimentation, etc, are very good, just not on human time scale (though the two I pointed out above are actually pretty good human time adjuncts).

As time goes along, us humans are getting better with what has happened in the past and when. Maybe we are still in the stone tools and bearskins stage (what they will say 500 years from now), but we got the tools to do some rudimentary discovery, recording, and projecting, so why not make some conservative proclamations and see if we can learn from ourselves while not making things worse?

 

[manbearpig]

6th named hurricane in the EPAC so far. earliest in the history of ever to have that many so earlier.

When you say "Earliest in history"..........how far back does history go?

30 years?
300 years?
3,000 years?

How far back does the accurate detection and reporting of hurricanes in the eastern pacific go back?

What data have you collected that makes you know what scientists are saying is wrong?

 

[FecalFace]

6th named hurricane in the EPAC so far. earliest in the history of ever to have that many so earlier.

When you say "Earliest in history"..........how far back does history go?

30 years?
300 years?
3,000 years?

How far back does the accurate detection and reporting of hurricanes in the eastern pacific go back?

What data have you collected that makes you know what scientists are saying is wrong?

Facebook memes say the science is wrong!

 

[studog]

Figuring out the past (in part to try to understand the future) via the scientific method (such as limnology and dendrochronology) produces lots and lots of small facts.

People use these small facts to build up an hypothesis, then get it out there for peer review.

The ideas that hold up, are used to describe how things work according to our best current knowledge.

When new ideas come along, if they better describe what is going on or predict things better, old ideas are let go.

Right now, our man-made historical records are not all that great in terms of geological time, but the earth time records through study of lakes, rivers, earth, stone, sedimentation, etc, are very good, just not on human time scale (though the two I pointed out above are actually pretty good human time adjuncts).

As time goes along, us humans are getting better with what has happened in the past and when. Maybe we are still in the stone tools and bearskins stage (what they will say 500 years from now), but we got the tools to do some rudimentary discovery, recording, and projecting, so why not make some conservative proclamations and see if we can learn from ourselves while not making things worse?

we may not have 500 years as humans waiting around for enough data to smack the non-believers over the head. there's enough data right now to throw up red flags our ways & methods need to change.

 

[casa_mugrienta]

6th named hurricane in the EPAC so far. earliest in the history of ever to have that many so earlier.

When you say "Earliest in history"..........how far back does history go?

30 years?
300 years?
3,000 years?

How far back does the accurate detection and reporting of hurricanes in the eastern pacific go back?

What data have you collected that makes you know what scientists are saying is wrong?

Where did he say that the scientists were wrong?

He asking a 100% intelligent question about the claim made.

And the claim made is dubious.

NOAA doesn't even bother with Atlantic or EPac data - if you really want to call guesswork and anecdotes "data" - prior to 1850.

And prior to 100 years ago (or less) that's all we really had. Guesswork, anecdotes, and rudimentary attempts at plotting.

I posted a bunch of charts from NOAA about this some time ago in a thread you were posting in but apparently you didn't learn anything.

So there's your data. SCIENCE!

 

[casa_mugrienta]

Figuring out the past (in part to try to understand the future) via the scientific method (such as limnology and dendrochronology) produces lots and lots of small facts.

People use these small facts to build up an hypothesis, then get it out there for peer review.

The ideas that hold up, are used to describe how things work according to our best current knowledge.

When new ideas come along, if they better describe what is going on or predict things better, old ideas are let go.

Right now, our man-made historical records are not all that great in terms of geological time, but the earth time records through study of lakes, rivers, earth, stone, sedimentation, etc, are very good, just not on human time scale (though the two I pointed out above are actually pretty good human time adjuncts).

As time goes along, us humans are getting better with what has happened in the past and when. Maybe we are still in the stone tools and bearskins stage (what they will say 500 years from now), but we got the tools to do some rudimentary discovery, recording, and projecting, so why not make some conservative proclamations and see if we can learn from ourselves while not making things worse?

we may not have 500 years as humans waiting around for enough data to smack the non-believers over the head. there's enough data right now to throw up red flags our ways & methods need to change.

If you're talking hurricanes that's false.

Have you even looked at the data?

There is no real data, except from less than 100 years. And even some of this data leaves gaping holes and questions about whether cyclone activity and ACE was over or underreported or measured/estimated.

 

[Mr Doof]

I concur about the red flags but I am optimistic about humanity.

I read an interesting paper that took the line that it may already be too late to do anything about all the CO2 in the atmosphere. The main thrust was that there will be global population upheaval, but the smart (and lucky, which includes the rich and the geographical lottery winners) will adapt and thrive. Long term, I advise a combination of portable wealth like brains,skills, health, and valuable tools.

Same as it ever was, though I suspect this will be more an an issue for the nephews' and nieces who have kids.

 

[GromsDad]

6th named hurricane in the EPAC so far. earliest in the history of ever to have that many so earlier.

When you say "Earliest in history"..........how far back does history go?

30 years?
300 years?
3,000 years?

How far back does the accurate detection and reporting of hurricanes in the eastern pacific go back?

What data have you collected that makes you know what scientists are saying is wrong?

He made a claim.......I did not. I just asked for a bit of clarification of the claim being made. Was a pretty simple question I asked. Perhaps you can answer it. You won't though because you know it makes his claim look stupid. Instead you'll divert or throw out some childish insults.

 

[casa_mugrienta]

I concur about the red flags but I am optimistic about humanity.

I read an interesting paper that took the line that it may already be too late to do anything about all the CO2 in the atmosphere. The main thrust was that there will be global population upheaval, but the smart (and lucky, which includes the rich and the geographical lottery winners) will adapt and thrive. Long term, I advise a combination of portable wealth like brains,skills, health, and valuable tools.

Same as it ever was, though I suspect this will be more an an issue for the nephews' and nieces who have kids.

Doof, as you know I'm pretty undecided about the climate change stuff.

I think the hard part for someone like myself who is naturally skeptical is that we are making determinations about present day climate based on 0.03% of Earth 4.5 billion year history.

That takes a lot of faith for a layman like myself to say "I'm a believer."

 

[Mr Doof]

If you're talking hurricanes that's false.

Have you even looked at the data?

There is no real data, except from less than 100 years. And even some of this data leaves gaping holes and questions about whether cyclone activity and ACE was over or underreported or measured/estimated.

Hurricane data isn't going to be super, but one can infer events looking at increased sedimentation in lakes from rainfall. More rain generally means more robust tree rings as well. Warmer waters has an effect on biological and chemical process, which leave their traces as well.

So I wouldn't say there is no data. Hey, there is a lot.

Nor wouldn't call it the smoking gun in the hand of the person standing over the corpse while uttering, "I am glad I shot you with this now smoking gun 10 seconds ago."

So I think there is always room for more research while simultaneously no reason to wait till all the cows are in the barn before you start planning for next year's feed bill.

Now, where is that great episode of Spock talking about the coming Ice Age from the great 70's show 'In Search Of'.....boy, they got their timeline wrong with that one.

PS
I get the the whole 4.5 billion years of earth/teeny tiny bit of of current weather records conundrum with regards to climate. Hey, it took a long time before people finally figured out it was actual cellular parasites that give people malaria and not just 'bad air' or that having sex is what made babies.

This is why we try to figure out the past using more than just satellite data and note books stored in musty libraries in Tunisia or London.

I grant you, it isn't all the most perfect data. Heck, where humans are involved, well, you know, imperfect bastards that we are, everything we do can be suspect.

The recent warming we've been seeing is probably part of the continuing warming as we come out of our Ice Age for these last 12,000 years of so...still got a ways to go till we are completely out of it and there is no continental permanent ice in Antarctica.

However, global temps took on a faster rate of change with the Industrial Revolution. Just going up a little faster than it had been...again, according to ice core samples, sedimentation accretion rates, etc, etc.

It is good to question things and it good to cover one's bases at the same time because, hey, getting flooded or starving to death or being overrun with economic/disaster/war refugees kinds sucks.

 

[GromsDad]

The first weather satellite was in 1960 and the first weather radar that was any good didn't come until 1964. It really wasn't until about 1980 that a good enough network of weather radars and satellites existed to closely track a hurricane out at sea. Prior that you had land based radars with limited coverage, very limited satellite images and observations of mariners at sea. Today a storm way out at sea and affecting nobody gets named that just a few decades ago we wouldn't have even known existed. Now we are told a record number of storms........its BULLSHIT. There's not even 40 years of truly accurate data on hurricanes.

 

[Billy Ocean]

But what about 100 yr storms?

 

[manbearpig]

There are more ways to view historical data of weather.

But I’m sure you already knew that.

 

[casa_mugrienta]

If you're talking hurricanes that's false.

Have you even looked at the data?

There is no real data, except from less than 100 years. And even some of this data leaves gaping holes and questions about whether cyclone activity and ACE was over or underreported or measured/estimated.

Hurricane data isn't going to be super, but one can infer events looking at increased sedimentation in lakes from rainfall. More rain generally means more robust tree rings as well. Warmer waters has an effect on biological and chemical process, which leave their traces as well.

Right, but for a layman these are maybes at best at not by any means slam dunks.

That's why when people ask me I say "Maybe, really don't know. I haven't studied it enough to say I'm 100% a believer."

It doesn't help that most of the average people i meet on both sides are interested in providing claims but have no data or understanding of the science.

The first thing that comes to mind is my mother in law, who grew up in a time when mass in Colombia was still in Latin and how stupid these people seemed (were) to follow like sheep...it's very hard to get past engaging in the same sort of behavior while knowing how foolish it is to do so.

So I wouldn't say there is no data. Hey, there is a lot.

When i said "no data" I was referring to hard data involving Atlantic basin and EPac hurricanes RE:stu_dog's claim.

There is indeed all kinds of data out there that is climate related.

So I think there is always room for more research while simultaneously no reason to wait till all the cows are in the barn before you start planning for next year's feed bill.

Agree.

Now, where is that great episode of Spock talking about the coming Ice Age from the great 70's show 'In Search Of'.....boy, they got their timeline wrong with that one.

Used to watch the reruns on A&E as a kid.

The beginning of that episode they talk about a bunch of people freezing to death in cars during the blizzard of '76.

Then some lady comes on and says "I we continue to have patterns of cold like this, humanity might just have to move someplace else."

I nearly crapped my 7-year old pants.

 

[casa_mugrienta]

Doof, what would be a good book to read if I wanted to read solid, evidence based info on the topic of climate change?