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Is It El Nino, yet
- Thread starter doc_flavonoid
- Start date
It's pumping 20-25 ft with near 30 ft sets out front right now in S. Ore.
Long period lines started showing just before sunset. Supposed to hang at that size overnight until tomorrow AM.
Gonna be some loud booming tonight on the sets.
Mav's should be doing it (3x to maybe 4x o'head. maybe +?) tomorrow AM into Thursday, though a bit smaller Thurs.
Should be more westerly (295 +/-) in So Cal than last good size swell, so a bit more getting past Pt. Conception this time.
Looks like Thurs AM into afternoon peaking in So Cal with sets pushing near 2x O'head at deep water spots?
Should be good size (overhead) thru Friday at least.
Will be walled/lined up at most beach-breaks, but exposed reefs and those couple beach-breaks that can handle should firing.
Long period lines started showing just before sunset. Supposed to hang at that size overnight until tomorrow AM.
Gonna be some loud booming tonight on the sets.
Mav's should be doing it (3x to maybe 4x o'head. maybe +?) tomorrow AM into Thursday, though a bit smaller Thurs.
Should be more westerly (295 +/-) in So Cal than last good size swell, so a bit more getting past Pt. Conception this time.
Looks like Thurs AM into afternoon peaking in So Cal with sets pushing near 2x O'head at deep water spots?
Should be good size (overhead) thru Friday at least.
Will be walled/lined up at most beach-breaks, but exposed reefs and those couple beach-breaks that can handle should firing.
I heard velella sightings up and down the coast as well.
I read about them tuna crabs today. They are neither tuna nor crab (they are actually lobster). I thought that we were supposed to be transitioning into a La Nina?
NOAA is predicting a strong La Nina. But not so sure it will be in the "strong" category.
We've had a few minor west wind bursts (WWB's) in the equatorial west Pac, so those might keep the cold upwelling off Peru/Ecuador from getting robust enough for a "strong" La Nina, but too early to tell for sure.
Cold water is already replacing all the anomalous warm water from last winters El Nino off the equatorial EPac. So El Nino is basically dead, for now.
We'll see how much this building La Nina affects the East coast hurricane season. I know the weather geeks over there are predicting apocalyptic conditions for later this summer. May get a slow start over there, but could boom later in summer?
We've had a few minor west wind bursts (WWB's) in the equatorial west Pac, so those might keep the cold upwelling off Peru/Ecuador from getting robust enough for a "strong" La Nina, but too early to tell for sure.
Cold water is already replacing all the anomalous warm water from last winters El Nino off the equatorial EPac. So El Nino is basically dead, for now.
We'll see how much this building La Nina affects the East coast hurricane season. I know the weather geeks over there are predicting apocalyptic conditions for later this summer. May get a slow start over there, but could boom later in summer?
Same in North/Central Florida
In North/Central Florida's case, the El Nino front-right-over-the-top-every-three days has transitioned to doldrums (and a Spring drought) as noted by Goofy_footed in the session reports thread. Southerly flow and late June/July daytime highs in place. Water went from 68-70 to 78 in what felt like a week. Summer monsoon looks predicted to start next week in Central Florida with more elevated chance of afternoon blowups in North Florida; this is about a month early. The rain is desperately needed but in an El Nino, I'd be more inclined to expect a more frontal kind of rain in Spring into late May, then drought and fires in late June into July.
I'm happy NJ and Delmarva had a good season. Basically all of Florida's swells were buried under mid-Winter style NE blowouts and the underlying hurricane swell was barely noticeable. There were basically two quasi-Cape Verde but not really storms and we would have had head high windslop regardless.hurricand "Lee" bestest bestest ever for USEC....
I will roll coal and plutonium or whatever every day if we get the fog to permanently go away. Weather seemed to be actually tolerable the last two days with a non-west wind. Got my hopes up. Stupid.
Well, that slammed shut as soon as I had a window to surf, weird tides be damned. I don't even care what the surf is like, I just want to surf with some fucking sun out.
It's like Charlie Brown with the football at this point.
I need to figure out a way to get health insurance to pay for an annual 6 month mental health retreat to the tropics. Truth seems to have figured this out pretty well.
Global warming cannot happen quickly enough at this point. I really took it for granted how good that drought was for the surf (and sandbars) up here. Thankful for running as a diversion that became a passion because otherwise don't know what I'd be doing.
Going to SoCal next week for high school reunion. Should be fun. Definitely bringing a board. Hopefully water is warm enough that a short-arm full will suffice.
Well, that slammed shut as soon as I had a window to surf, weird tides be damned. I don't even care what the surf is like, I just want to surf with some fucking sun out.
It's like Charlie Brown with the football at this point.
I need to figure out a way to get health insurance to pay for an annual 6 month mental health retreat to the tropics. Truth seems to have figured this out pretty well.
Global warming cannot happen quickly enough at this point. I really took it for granted how good that drought was for the surf (and sandbars) up here. Thankful for running as a diversion that became a passion because otherwise don't know what I'd be doing.
Going to SoCal next week for high school reunion. Should be fun. Definitely bringing a board. Hopefully water is warm enough that a short-arm full will suffice.
By the time you figure that out, there'll be a Cloudbreak left wavepool orbiting around under the stands at Madison Square Garden and I'll be helping the fans chant "Fuck you Reggie" from the friendly confines of da pit.
In terms of Florida to New England it's hard to call a bestest ever for the USEC. Miami-Dade and Emerald Isle/Shack want Central Florida to get hit with a 4. Palm Beach/Broward want a late season 'cane and an early season Nor'easter a la 91 or Sandy. Space Coast through Jupiter want a closely recurving storm that'll usually overwhelm the Banks. North Florida on up is in the Cape Verde window, but a Tropical Storm just off the South Carolina coast will be the same size surf and 4x as consistent and more peaks to go around. And we haven't mentioned the Gulf at all.hurricand "Lee" bestest bestest ever for USEC....
Bill to me was fun but not great-epic for North Florida and we had a Tropical Storm like a week later that was the same size but waves galore instead of kind of inconsistent and kind of walled.
Katya is to me the archetype of most people (other than South Brevard - Miami) getting theirs. NY looked clean, we had side-offshores here that broke the walls up a bit into longer, tapered runners. It never got any size but we had multiple days of clean decent surf with enough waves to go around.
Ideal would be a Cape Verde that tracks into the Gulf, hits about where Idalia did, but doesn't race off NE super quick. Gulf gets some, SFL/SNC gets some, lots of the coast gets a double-shot...
Anywho lots of time to daydream in Florida. It's hot as f--k, flat, no rain to trigger a bite, surf is cloudy on account of Southerly flow....