Guess which country has emerged as the COVID-19 deaths leader

[Mike_Jones]

.
Mind you, Sweden is a culture of death. They euthanize old sick people, so there aren't a lot of them hanging on to life compared to other countries.

I thought Sweden's ignoring of the virus was supposed to be a brilliant strategy toward "herd Immunity". And yet.....

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-million-7-day-average?country=CAN+DEU+ITA+KOR+ESP+SWE+GBR+USA

.

 

[obslop]

no apparent economic benefit either:

Sweden's economy likely won't benefit from its decision to avoid a lockdown, according to analysts

Analysts told the Financial Times that "in the end, we think Sweden will end up more or less the same" as other countries.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Lance Mannion]

It seems to me the only way make a good comparison is to have a count of deaths related to the shut down only.

 

[afoaf]

I'm going fkn blind...I can't even color match lines to legend

I hate getting old

 

[PRCD]

We're all headed towards herd immunity it's just a question of how long it will take. Vaccines could get us there quicker. So could opening up like Sweden. Sweden saw more deaths this round but will have fewer rounds because more people were infected this round. The lockdown countries will go through several more rounds because they had lower infection rates this round. Their trade-offs may have been worthwile.

 

[laidback]

I'm going fkn blind...I can't even color match lines to legend

I hate getting old

Same

 

[Mike_Jones]

.
Texas Governor Abbott used the "positivity rate" in his address yesterday. It's the new-cases-to-tests ratio. Abbott used the ratio as justification for the measured state re-opening already underway.

While testing is ramping up in a country or state, and the number of cases percapita ramps up you can't really tell if the increase in new cases you see represents an increase in case density or is merely the result of testing previously-hidden cases. The positivity ratio is designed to eliminate this uncertainty.

However, the ratio introduces another ambiguity as testing becomes more prevalent. You can't tell by looking at the positivity ratio how prevalent the virus is, or what prevalence trend it is taking. Does a drop in positivity mean that prevalence is dropping, or does it merely mean that testing has become so prevalent that we're testing people who have no need to be tested?

if you look at the Texas new cases per million chart it reveals a rise in new cases since the beginning of reopening. At this stage of testing prevalence I don't think the rise in cases can be attributed to the rise in testing even though it might be. The positivity drop could merely mean that we are testing people who don't need to b be tested.

Texas is over 800 miles from the panhandle border to the Brownsville border. I converse with people who point at the dropping new-cases-percapita rates of opening southern states like Florida and Georgia. They compare the rising new-cases-percapita of northern still-closed states like New York and Massachusetts as evidence that remaining closed is more dangerous.

HeellO. We know that COVID-19 is hampered by warmth, and killed by sunshine. The Southern governors in question knew this factor, and used it in deciding to reopen. Anyway, it turns out that Texas' biggest new-cases-percapita rises have been in the northern half of the state which are slower to warm up in spring.
.

 

[mundus]

This should quiet the anti lockdown Karens, then again probably not, that ilk always has something to screech about.

 

[Duffy LaCoronilla]

no apparent economic benefit either:

Sweden's economy likely won't benefit from its decision to avoid a lockdown, according to analysts

Analysts told the Financial Times that "in the end, we think Sweden will end up more or less the same" as other countries.

www.businessinsider.com

To be fair, when the almost the entire world shuts down the economic impact will affect every country, especially small ones like Sweden.

 

[Duffy LaCoronilla]

This should quiet the anti lockdown Karens, then again probably not, that ilk always has something to screech about.

No. We need to open up and accept the risk.

We do it in all other aspects of life.

Driving, swimming, flying, drinking, eating shitty, all other infectious diseases...

We have accepted the risks of all these things.

The shut down was put in place to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed.

Mission accomplished.

 

[hammies]

We're all headed towards herd immunity it's just a question of how long it will take. Vaccines could get us there quicker. So could opening up like Sweden. Sweden saw more deaths this round but will have fewer rounds because more people were infected this round. The lockdown countries will go through several more rounds because they had lower infection rates this round. Their trade-offs may have been worthwile.

Herd immunity for respiratory viruses generally would require 60 - 70% of the population to be exposed. No one really knows how much of the population has been exposed and antibody studies are all over the map - from 0.7% to 12%. Let's say 6%. And we need to get to 60+.

So to get to herd immunity we would have to endure ten times the cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Close to a million Americans dead, for "herd immunity".

 

[PRCD]

Herd immunity for respiratory viruses generally would require 60 - 70% of the population to be exposed. No one really knows how much of the population has been exposed and antibody studies are all over the map - from 0.7% to 12%. Let's say 6%. And we need to get to 60+.

So to get to herd immunity we would have to endure ten times the cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Close to a million Americans dead, for "herd immunity".

The antibodies studies have shown high prevalence in NY (25%) and lower prevalence in (CA 2.5%). Some regions are closer than others. Either way, there is no stopping the spread of the virus. You can slow it with trade-offs. Total lockdown has enormous trade-offs that we will be discovering for years to come and may not have slowed the spread of the virus at all. Total lockdown was a means of enforcign social distancing. As I posted on the COVID Skepticism thread, there are only a couple of scientific papers analyzing the effectiveness of social distancing and the authors acknowledge the studies were weak and the trade-offs were high. This is not something public health officials or the news have acknowledged.

We have several more rounds of this. At best, the deaths have been pushed to the future with the lockdown countries if lockdown is truly effective, which Dr. John Ioannidis also questioned by comparing Sweden(no lockdown) to Switzerland (lockdown). The effectiveness of lockdown is not scientifically proven. It could also be harmful.

 

[Autoprax]

I'm going fkn blind...I can't even color match lines to legend

I hate getting old

I wrote a song about getting old. I was a lot younger then. I think it's the loss of youth one grieves. Once you are old, you get used to it. I'm like a happy kindly Grandpa now.

“Old”

I was talkin’ to my friend’s wife the other day
She said, “Gar, what’s wrong with your face?
It’s swollen, pasty and grey.”
I guess she me in my place.

I tried to shrug it off and said, “I don’t know.”
I didn’t want come off defensive or cold.
But it was to me she obvious she wasn’t gonna let it go.
The truth needed to be told--

I’m getting old!
I’m getting old!
And it’s all down hill from here!

I was coming up the beach from surfing
When some granny in a one piece was giving me the eye
That old girl was ready to go, for certain
I wouldn’t tell you no lie.

“Hey, granny, you think you got a shot at me?
I’d rather go to TJ and get whore.”
But those pretty young girls that I used to do
Don’t want to do want to do more.

Cuz I’m getting old!
So fucking old!
And it’s all down hill from here!

I was once a young man
Such a hopeful young man
I was once a young man
Now my story’s told.

Old!

And I'm walking through the dessert.

 

[PRCD]

To be fair, when the almost the entire world shuts down the economic impact will affect every country, especially small ones like Sweden.

Of course, but will it affect Sweden AS BADLY or will Sweden fare better? The news right now is only saying that Sweden is suffering economically, not whether it's suffering AS BADLY as similar countries, with "similar" being a loaded term.

There's no nuance in the news, like GWB who famously said, "I don't do nuance." Funny to think that all the regurgitators of the news are as shallow thinkers as him.

 

[Sharkbiscuit]

I want to take a moment to reiterate a point GWS has been making about the strange bedfellows with respect to Covid-19.

Sweden isn't locked down, Switzerland is. If you were picking a poster child for libertarian mindset in advanced Europe, it'd probably be Switzerland, and if you were picking a poster child for full control, I think quite a few people might come up with Sweden.

 

[$kully]

.
Texas Governor Abbott used the "positivity rate" in his address yesterday. It's the new-cases-to-tests ratio. Abbott used the ratio as justification for the measured state re-opening already underway.

While testing is ramping up in a country or state, and the number of cases percapita ramps up you can't really tell if the increase in new cases you see represents an increase in case density or is merely the result of testing previously-hidden cases. The positivity ratio is designed to eliminate this uncertainty.

However, the ratio introduces another ambiguity as testing becomes more prevalent. You can't tell by looking at the positivity ratio how prevalent the virus is, or what prevalence trend it is taking. Does a drop in positivity mean that prevalence is dropping, or does it merely mean that testing has become so prevalent that we're testing people who have no need to be tested?

if you look at the Texas new cases per million chart it reveals a rise in new cases since the beginning of reopening. At this stage of testing prevalence I don't think the rise in cases can be attributed to the rise in testing even though it might be. The positivity drop could merely mean that we are testing people who don't need to b be tested.

Texas is over 800 miles from the panhandle border to the Brownsville border. I converse with people who point at the dropping new-cases-percapita rates of opening southern states like Florida and Georgia. They compare the rising new-cases-percapita of northern still-closed states like New York and Massachusetts as evidence that remaining closed is more dangerous.

HeellO. We know that COVID-19 is hampered by warmth, and killed by sunshine. The Southern governors in question knew this factor, and used it in deciding to reopen. Anyway, it turns out that Texas' biggest new-cases-percapita rises have been in the northern half of the state which are slower to warm up in spring.
.

If you read up on it you’ll see that the numbers in Georgia and Florida are total bullshiat

 

[obslop]

regardless of your view there will be ample data 1-2 years from highlighting where America erred and where good decisions were made.

we're living one of the largest experiments in history right now with millions of lives and trillions of dollars at stake.

 

[afoaf]

regardless of your view there will be ample data 1-2 years from highlighting where America erred and where good decisions were made.

we're living one of the largest experiments in history right now with millions of lives and trillions of dollars at stake.

may you live in interesting times!

 

[mundus]

If you read up on it you’ll see that the numbers in Georgia and Florida are total bullshiat

Yep, they are falsifying numbers to justify opening back up, typical Republicans.

 

[obslop]

Yep, they are falsifying numbers to justify opening back up, typical Republicans.

You notice the tweak to CDC guidance day or two ago which now downplays risk of contracting virus by touching surfaces, objects, others touched?

With WWI in play the American government went full court press re: lying about the Spanish Flu.

I think we're seeing a lower intensity variation of that with those politicians that want to reopen faster to get the economy moving.