Fed downgrades US growth to 2.1%

[obslop]

"Every major central bank on the planet is now carrying enormous balance sheets. All have turned fully dovish; none will reduce their balance sheets. Ten years after the financial crisis, no central banks will have normalized and can’t. The ECB is still running negative rates with no end in sight.

Let’s call a spade a spade: Normalization would crash capital markets globally. The world is destined to never see a true normalization, and central banks will be forced to remain accommodative in the face of slowing growth. The promise of organic growth following what was supposed to be temporary central-bank intervention was simply a pipe dream. The Fed tried and failed. Markets and the economy have forced their hand and now the Fed is trapped and is forced to be the dovish for years to come. Intervention and accommodation have become permanent. Globally."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-feds-total-capitulation-is-a-bad-omen-for-the-stock-market-2019-03-21?mod=mw_theo_homepage

so is anything about this economy remotely real?

i cannot answer that question but the above puts the enormity of 2008 into perspective. it was an event that will resonate in many ways for generations.

 

[Ifallalot]

"Every major central bank on the planet is now carrying enormous balance sheets. All have turned fully dovish; none will reduce their balance sheets. Ten years after the financial crisis, no central banks will have normalized and can’t. The ECB is still running negative rates with no end in sight.

Let’s call a spade a spade: Normalization would crash capital markets globally. The world is destined to never see a true normalization, and central banks will be forced to remain accommodative in the face of slowing growth. The promise of organic growth following what was supposed to be temporary central-bank intervention was simply a pipe dream. The Fed tried and failed. Markets and the economy have forced their hand and now the Fed is trapped and is forced to be the dovish for years to come. Intervention and accommodation have become permanent. Globally."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-feds-total-capitulation-is-a-bad-omen-for-the-stock-market-2019-03-21?mod=mw_theo_homepage

so is anything about this economy remotely real?

No, and it hasn't been since the bailouts

 

[studog]

"Every major central bank on the planet is now carrying enormous balance sheets. All have turned fully dovish; none will reduce their balance sheets. Ten years after the financial crisis, no central banks will have normalized and can’t. The ECB is still running negative rates with no end in sight.

Let’s call a spade a spade: Normalization would crash capital markets globally. The world is destined to never see a true normalization, and central banks will be forced to remain accommodative in the face of slowing growth. The promise of organic growth following what was supposed to be temporary central-bank intervention was simply a pipe dream. The Fed tried and failed. Markets and the economy have forced their hand and now the Fed is trapped and is forced to be the dovish for years to come. Intervention and accommodation have become permanent. Globally."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-feds-total-capitulation-is-a-bad-omen-for-the-stock-market-2019-03-21?mod=mw_theo_homepage

so is anything about this economy remotely real?

No, and it hasn't been since the bailouts

corporate debt bubble coming all those years of near free lending coming due

 

[Billy Ocean]

"Every major central bank on the planet is now carrying enormous balance sheets. All have turned fully dovish; none will reduce their balance sheets. Ten years after the financial crisis, no central banks will have normalized and can’t. The ECB is still running negative rates with no end in sight.

Let’s call a spade a spade: Normalization would crash capital markets globally. The world is destined to never see a true normalization, and central banks will be forced to remain accommodative in the face of slowing growth. The promise of organic growth following what was supposed to be temporary central-bank intervention was simply a pipe dream. The Fed tried and failed. Markets and the economy have forced their hand and now the Fed is trapped and is forced to be the dovish for years to come. Intervention and accommodation have become permanent. Globally."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-feds-total-capitulation-is-a-bad-omen-for-the-stock-market-2019-03-21?mod=mw_theo_homepage

A little dramatic but mostly hard to argue with

Still, inflation is persistently low so why shouldnt monetary policy remain accommodating ?

 

[Billy Ocean]

"Every major central bank on the planet is now carrying enormous balance sheets. All have turned fully dovish; none will reduce their balance sheets. Ten years after the financial crisis, no central banks will have normalized and can’t. The ECB is still running negative rates with no end in sight.

Let’s call a spade a spade: Normalization would crash capital markets globally. The world is destined to never see a true normalization, and central banks will be forced to remain accommodative in the face of slowing growth. The promise of organic growth following what was supposed to be temporary central-bank intervention was simply a pipe dream. The Fed tried and failed. Markets and the economy have forced their hand and now the Fed is trapped and is forced to be the dovish for years to come. Intervention and accommodation have become permanent. Globally."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-feds-total-capitulation-is-a-bad-omen-for-the-stock-market-2019-03-21?mod=mw_theo_homepage

so is anything about this economy remotely real?

i cannot answer that question but the above puts the enormity of 2008 into perspective. it was an event that will resonate in many ways for generations.

Yes, it was the equivalent of a Great Depression level event yet we escaped that outcome due to smart policy

This is the thing both the Bush admin and Obama admin deserve the most credit for, but few will ever appreciate what they avoided

 

[Billy Ocean]

"Every major central bank on the planet is now carrying enormous balance sheets. All have turned fully dovish; none will reduce their balance sheets. Ten years after the financial crisis, no central banks will have normalized and can’t. The ECB is still running negative rates with no end in sight.

Let’s call a spade a spade: Normalization would crash capital markets globally. The world is destined to never see a true normalization, and central banks will be forced to remain accommodative in the face of slowing growth. The promise of organic growth following what was supposed to be temporary central-bank intervention was simply a pipe dream. The Fed tried and failed. Markets and the economy have forced their hand and now the Fed is trapped and is forced to be the dovish for years to come. Intervention and accommodation have become permanent. Globally."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-feds-total-capitulation-is-a-bad-omen-for-the-stock-market-2019-03-21?mod=mw_theo_homepage

so is anything about this economy remotely real?

No, and it hasn't been since the bailouts

Disagree

Effectively what we did was extend the period for working out the imbalances that built up over many years up to 2008

We’re still working through them but major progress has been made

There’s no guarantee obviously but a lot of sh!t has been done in the last 10+ yrs to address issues that caused the last crisis

 

[obslop]

inability of Fed to normalize rates is a concession that economy is weak. combine that with an absence of inflation and you can see the case for a deflationary future.

deflation scares the Fed; much more so than inflation.

 

[mundus]

And Congress is undoing all of the controls put in place after 2008, gee, what could go wrong?

 

[Billy Ocean]

inability of Fed to normalize rates is a concession that economy is weak. combine that with an absence of inflation and you can see the case for a deflationary future.

deflation scares the Fed; much more so than inflation.

Everything is relative

When you compare to where we were, economy has made remarkable recovery

Obviously it took WWII to get us out of Great Depression

Deflation is a scary scenario but central banks have demonstrated that they are willing to open floodgates to avoid it

It’s nice that they’re coordinated on this even as the world can’t get its sh!t together on other issues

 

[sizzld1]

And Congress is undoing all of the controls put in place after 2008, gee, what could go wrong?

This.

 

[Ifallalot]

"Every major central bank on the planet is now carrying enormous balance sheets. All have turned fully dovish; none will reduce their balance sheets. Ten years after the financial crisis, no central banks will have normalized and can’t. The ECB is still running negative rates with no end in sight.

Let’s call a spade a spade: Normalization would crash capital markets globally. The world is destined to never see a true normalization, and central banks will be forced to remain accommodative in the face of slowing growth. The promise of organic growth following what was supposed to be temporary central-bank intervention was simply a pipe dream. The Fed tried and failed. Markets and the economy have forced their hand and now the Fed is trapped and is forced to be the dovish for years to come. Intervention and accommodation have become permanent. Globally."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-feds-total-capitulation-is-a-bad-omen-for-the-stock-market-2019-03-21?mod=mw_theo_homepage

so is anything about this economy remotely real?

No, and it hasn't been since the bailouts

Disagree

Effectively what we did was extend the period for working out the imbalances that built up over many years up to 2008

We’re still working through them but major progress has been made

There’s no guarantee obviously but a lot of sh!t has been done in the last 10+ yrs to address issues that caused the last crisis

We’re kicking the van down the road and allowing the next bubble to get larger, and therefore, more dangerous when it pops

 

[StuAzole]

inability of Fed to normalize rates is a concession that economy is weak. combine that with an absence of inflation and you can see the case for a deflationary future.

deflation scares the Fed; much more so than inflation.

It's also an indication that America doesn't exist in a bubble. The US can't keep increasing rates if other nations are going the other way.

 

[Billy Ocean]

And Congress is undoing all of the controls put in place after 2008, gee, what could go wrong?

I think they tried to reduce the burden of Dodd Frank for banks that aren’t large enough to present systemic risk on their own

I think you could argue either way on this

accomodating smaller banks potentially helps them compete with larger banks which could be desirable if you’re worried about increasing consolidation of banks and exacerbating too big to fail

Not saying it wasn’t really driven by a lobbying f festival, but there are reasonable arguments for why it makes sense

 

[StuAzole]

"Every major central bank on the planet is now carrying enormous balance sheets. All have turned fully dovish; none will reduce their balance sheets. Ten years after the financial crisis, no central banks will have normalized and can’t. The ECB is still running negative rates with no end in sight.

Let’s call a spade a spade: Normalization would crash capital markets globally. The world is destined to never see a true normalization, and central banks will be forced to remain accommodative in the face of slowing growth. The promise of organic growth following what was supposed to be temporary central-bank intervention was simply a pipe dream. The Fed tried and failed. Markets and the economy have forced their hand and now the Fed is trapped and is forced to be the dovish for years to come. Intervention and accommodation have become permanent. Globally."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-feds-total-capitulation-is-a-bad-omen-for-the-stock-market-2019-03-21?mod=mw_theo_homepage

so is anything about this economy remotely real?

No, and it hasn't been since the bailouts

Disagree

Effectively what we did was extend the period for working out the imbalances that built up over many years up to 2008

We’re still working through them but major progress has been made

There’s no guarantee obviously but a lot of sh!t has been done in the last 10+ yrs to address issues that caused the last crisis

We’re kicking the van down the road and allowing the next bubble to get larger, and therefore, more dangerous when it pops

Where is this bubble? Which asset class(es)?

 

[Billy Ocean]

Disagree

Effectively what we did was extend the period for working out the imbalances that built up over many years up to 2008

We’re still working through them but major progress has been made

There’s no guarantee obviously but a lot of sh!t has been done in the last 10+ yrs to address issues that caused the last crisis

We’re kicking the van down the road and allowing the next bubble to get larger, and therefore, more dangerous when it pops

We definitely kicked the can down the road, but sometimes that works!

 

[the janitor]

"Every major central bank on the planet is now carrying enormous balance sheets. All have turned fully dovish; none will reduce their balance sheets. Ten years after the financial crisis, no central banks will have normalized and can’t. The ECB is still running negative rates with no end in sight.

Let’s call a spade a spade: Normalization would crash capital markets globally. The world is destined to never see a true normalization, and central banks will be forced to remain accommodative in the face of slowing growth. The promise of organic growth following what was supposed to be temporary central-bank intervention was simply a pipe dream. The Fed tried and failed. Markets and the economy have forced their hand and now the Fed is trapped and is forced to be the dovish for years to come. Intervention and accommodation have become permanent. Globally."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-feds-total-capitulation-is-a-bad-omen-for-the-stock-market-2019-03-21?mod=mw_theo_homepage

so is anything about this economy remotely real?

No, and it hasn't been since the bailouts

Disagree

Effectively what we did was extend the period for working out the imbalances that built up over many years up to 2008

We’re still working through them but major progress has been made

There’s no guarantee obviously but a lot of sh!t has been done in the last 10+ yrs to address issues that caused the last crisis

We’re kicking the van down the road and allowing the next bubble to get larger, and therefore, more dangerous when it pops

#vanlife

 

[Kento]

We’re kicking the van down the river

#vanlife

Fixed.

 

[sizzld1]

 

[StuAzole]

Based on the nonchalant responses from conservatives, it seems that reducing the deficit is not at all a concern.

Reagan would be so proud!

 

[Surfdog]

We’re kicking the van down the river

#vanlife

Fixed.