Why wont Ol Joe step aside?

Sharkbiscuit

Duke status
Aug 6, 2003
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I'm actually torn.
Trump has attention and momentum, but overall needs to convince NEW people to vote for him - which could be the uphill battle
He's leading in almost every swing state poll and the third parties, especially Cornell West, actually seem to help Trump's margin over Biden in those swing states.

Why do you say he needs NEW people to vote for him?

I am thinking no matter what happens the Dems take the House.
I dunno about no matter what, but that seems likely. On the flip side, with Larry Hogan entering the Maryland Senate race, I don't think any amount of MAGA idiocy in Montana or Ohio will matter with Joe Manchin leaving WV. Senate's gone IMHO.
 

ghost_of_lewis_samuels

Phil Edwards status
Oct 27, 2019
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He's leading in almost every swing state poll and the third parties, especially Cornell West, actually seem to help Trump's margin over Biden in those swing states.

Why do you say he needs NEW people to vote for him?

.
Because he had fewer voters choose him over his competitor in the last election. His baseline support is smaller than his opponents (starting from the previous election).

Biden needs to not shed voters
 

mundus

Duke status
Feb 26, 2018
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I still say Republicans recent culture war batshittery will cost Trump the election, I hope!
 

hammies

Duke status
Apr 8, 2006
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Depending on how today's SCOTUS case regarding Mifepristone goes, women could be an even bigger factor in Nov.
 
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Sharkbiscuit

Duke status
Aug 6, 2003
26,821
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Because he had fewer voters choose him over his competitor in the last election. His baseline support is smaller than his opponents (starting from the previous election).
This premise is factually valid. However it ignores the polling changes that show a 3-4%+ swing in Trump's direction.

Biden needs to not shed voters
Wew lad intensifies. He's losing vote share among fucking everybody except possibly college-educated white women. Black folk, Spanish-speaking folk especially those who aren't straight up Nortenos. Arab Americans are not exactly happy about Palestine; ditto the higher-than-previous turnout 18-29 bloc Zoomer demographic...

:foreheadslap:

Pretending the 2021-2022 inflation cycle and months of polling and left-of-Trump third party candidacies don't exist is.....something.
 

ghost_of_lewis_samuels

Phil Edwards status
Oct 27, 2019
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This premise is factually valid. However it ignores the polling changes that show a 3-4%+ swing in Trump's direction.



Wew lad intensifies. He's losing vote share among fucking everybody except possibly college-educated white women. Black folk, Spanish-speaking folk especially those who aren't straight up Nortenos. Arab Americans are not exactly happy about Palestine; ditto the higher-than-previous turnout 18-29 bloc Zoomer demographic...

:foreheadslap:

Pretending the 2021-2022 inflation cycle and months of polling and left-of-Trump third party candidacies don't exist is.....something.
right, we'll see.
 

Sharkbiscuit

Duke status
Aug 6, 2003
26,821
19,766
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Jacksonville Beach
Depending on how today's SCOTUS case regarding Mifepristone goes, women could be an even bigger factor in Nov.
I can't believe they thought shopping this out to that Kacsmaryk imbecile was a good idea. His opinion was an ideologue idiot tour de force. Two studies that were retracted and a "doctor" who is a doctor of theology.

The Democrats painted themselves into a corner. The GOP had all the possibilities in the world and they seem to be choosing trying to lose as hard as humanly possible. Mind-boggling.
 

hal9000

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Jan 30, 2016
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