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COVID lockdowns = 890,000 deaths....
- Thread starter Duffy LaCoronilla
- Start date
Recreationally, I generally skip to the conclusion first...
"Conclusion
We examine the historical relation between life-expectancy, death-rates, and unemployment for the overall US population and groups organized based on race and gender. We use a VAR that allows for observation errors and we find that increases in unemployment are followed by statistically significant increases in death rates and declines in life-expectancy. A sizable fraction of the variation of these two variables can be accounted by unemployment shocks. We then use this historical relation to form predictions about the potential impact of the recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on human health. Our results suggest that the toll of lives claimed by the SARS-CoV-2 virus far exceeds those immediately related to the acute COVID-19 critical illness and that the recession caused by the pandemic can jeopardize population health for the next two decades. Based on our findings, African American citizens and women will be suffering more profoundly from the coronavirus-driven recession, adding on to their disproportionate adverse outcome in the setting of acute SARS-CoV-2 infection, Garg et al. (2020). Based on our findings, large, sustained and swift government maneuvers to support the currently unemployed labor force and to abate unemployment will be as equally 26 important as the massive efforts focused on limiting and eventually eradicating transmission of SARS-CoV-2 with effective vaccination strategies that are finally into place."
"Conclusion
We examine the historical relation between life-expectancy, death-rates, and unemployment for the overall US population and groups organized based on race and gender. We use a VAR that allows for observation errors and we find that increases in unemployment are followed by statistically significant increases in death rates and declines in life-expectancy. A sizable fraction of the variation of these two variables can be accounted by unemployment shocks. We then use this historical relation to form predictions about the potential impact of the recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on human health. Our results suggest that the toll of lives claimed by the SARS-CoV-2 virus far exceeds those immediately related to the acute COVID-19 critical illness and that the recession caused by the pandemic can jeopardize population health for the next two decades. Based on our findings, African American citizens and women will be suffering more profoundly from the coronavirus-driven recession, adding on to their disproportionate adverse outcome in the setting of acute SARS-CoV-2 infection, Garg et al. (2020). Based on our findings, large, sustained and swift government maneuvers to support the currently unemployed labor force and to abate unemployment will be as equally 26 important as the massive efforts focused on limiting and eventually eradicating transmission of SARS-CoV-2 with effective vaccination strategies that are finally into place."
Great website. Thanks
I don't think it is such an easy "either or" kind of thing as people constantly like to frame it.
1. No restrictions whatsoever and how many deaths would we have? 1 million? 2 million? Considering we are close to half a million with the on and off restrictions, that seems plausible. Also that 0.89 million deaths is spread over 15 years. That is a key distinction.
2. Existing economic disparities in minority/low income communities are clearly exacerbated by the lockdown (and the virus as well). A greater government response to both the pandemic and the economy would blunt these two (As GWS states from the conclusion).
3. If you properly lockdown and stop/slow the virus, we know that the economy will do better as a result. There is no evidence to suggest that just letting the virus run rampant is somehow worth the economic tradeoff. Of course, people could also just voluntarily comply with masks/social distancing, but that seems to be a struggle in the U.S.
1. No restrictions whatsoever and how many deaths would we have? 1 million? 2 million? Considering we are close to half a million with the on and off restrictions, that seems plausible. Also that 0.89 million deaths is spread over 15 years. That is a key distinction.
2. Existing economic disparities in minority/low income communities are clearly exacerbated by the lockdown (and the virus as well). A greater government response to both the pandemic and the economy would blunt these two (As GWS states from the conclusion).
3. If you properly lockdown and stop/slow the virus, we know that the economy will do better as a result. There is no evidence to suggest that just letting the virus run rampant is somehow worth the economic tradeoff. Of course, people could also just voluntarily comply with masks/social distancing, but that seems to be a struggle in the U.S.
Hold on, retards.
We are almost there.
just survive loosing as little as possible and rebuild again.
I predict things are going to boom when we get out of this.
IF you loose your restaurant, open a cart selling food.
I'll buy a taco from you
We are almost there.
just survive loosing as little as possible and rebuild again.
I predict things are going to boom when we get out of this.
IF you loose your restaurant, open a cart selling food.
I'll buy a taco from you
What the stupid among us refuse to accept is that Covid is a no win situation, Dammed if you do.......
I'm more of an Abstract guy
So this "next 15 years" part.....this is in addition to the 400K already have, correct?
When do we start the count for the next 15 years?
When the USSR fell apart, the life expectancy in what is now Russia fell to the high 50s for men, low 70s for women.
Pandemic and political failure = instability in economic systems = shorter lifespans (on average)
weird how duffy's dirty diaper thread devolved in to kind of a dud
Does anyone truly think the economic situation would have been better during a worldwide pandemic with no action taken?
Ask Sweden, which is in the exact same spot as its neighbors despite its non-response.
Their economy is not in any better shape than the other Scandinavian countries but their death toll is higher.
Here’s another
Conclusions
While small benefits cannot be excluded, we do not find significant benefits on case growth of more restrictive NPIs. Similar reductions in case growth may be achievable with less restrictive interventions.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Conclusions
While small benefits cannot be excluded, we do not find significant benefits on case growth of more restrictive NPIs. Similar reductions in case growth may be achievable with less restrictive interventions.
Assessing mandatory stay‐at‐home and business closure effects on the spread of COVID‐19
Background and Aims The most restrictive nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for controlling the spread of COVID-19 are mandatory stay-at-home and business closures. Given the consequences of the...
The trouble is that you need PROOF of the effect of not acting to get idiots to believe that not acting is the correct course. However, the idiots are willing to take it as axiomatic that restrictions benefit the economy and saves lives, even in the face of counter examples.
Or compare South Dakota vs. Vermont. Both states with Republican governors. One took it seriously, the other didn't.
South Dakota is top 5 in deaths per capita, despite being rural and far from large population centers. Vermont's per capita death rate is second best after Hawaii.
Two Rural States With GOP Governors And Very Different COVID-19 Results
Vermont and South Dakota are both among the most rural states in the U.S. One has embraced coronavirus safety measures, the other has not, and their infection and death rates are starkly different.
www.npr.org
Unemployment rate for Vermont in November 2020 was 3.1%. South Dakota in November? 3.5%.
So much for that tradeoff.
Facts and reality have no place here.Or compare South Dakota vs. Vermont. Both states with Republican governors. One took it seriously, the other didn't.
South Dakota is top 5 in deaths per capita, despite being rural and far from large population centers. Vermont's per capita death rate is second best after Hawaii.
Two Rural States With GOP Governors And Very Different COVID-19 Results
Vermont and South Dakota are both among the most rural states in the U.S. One has embraced coronavirus safety measures, the other has not, and their infection and death rates are starkly different.
Unemployment rate for Vermont in November 2020 was 3.1%. South Dakota in November? 3.5%.
So much for that tradeoff.
I'm not sure what you are not saying about not acting but I'm not against not using affirmatives and instead using negatives to not describe action.
I think its a joke. Last week was red alert in LA, the sky was falling. This week - open the restaurants back up! He showed his hand on this one.