I'm behind the Cos 110%. He was wrongly #MeTooed. If he wasn't, dem bitches had it coming
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Huntington Beach - Massive Protest - Surfers Revolt!!!
- Thread starter Trump2020
- Start date
He sure did slip them some chocolate pudding pops all right.I'm behind the Cos 110%. He was wrongly #MeTooed. If he wasn't, dem bitches had it coming
BTW, on original thread note, you see what I posted earlier re: South Korea IFR being about 2.3%? I think that's lower than what we end up with in the end and that's a country that has their sh*t together much better than us in just about all facets.
That's South Korea's CFR. Here you can listen to South Korea's coronavirus expert.
The Asian Tigers definitely did better. There's not much guanxi here.
Point taken - I got the acronyms reversed, didn't I? 
That's 70 minutes worth of video - will have to check out later. Or find a written transcript since I read faster than they talk.
Regardless, they did a pretty solid job of quarantining, testing, and the total deaths + recoveries are very close to the total number of cases so that's pretty hard data compared to what we have. Plus, I don't think it's a stretch to say that they are a much healthier populace than America in general. Even so, a total death rate of 2.3% of total cases (250 deaths out of 10,780 cases with 9,173 recovered) is a factor of 10 higher than what was posited in the Skepticism thread. Their curve has asypmtoted pretty well over the last few weeks too and we are nowhere close.
Let's be kind and say we mirror that death rate. Say only 10% of America contracts it. That still puts us at around 700,000 deaths. Kind of see what I was driving towards in this and the skepticism thread?
That's 70 minutes worth of video - will have to check out later. Or find a written transcript since I read faster than they talk.
Regardless, they did a pretty solid job of quarantining, testing, and the total deaths + recoveries are very close to the total number of cases so that's pretty hard data compared to what we have. Plus, I don't think it's a stretch to say that they are a much healthier populace than America in general. Even so, a total death rate of 2.3% of total cases (250 deaths out of 10,780 cases with 9,173 recovered) is a factor of 10 higher than what was posited in the Skepticism thread. Their curve has asypmtoted pretty well over the last few weeks too and we are nowhere close.
Let's be kind and say we mirror that death rate. Say only 10% of America contracts it. That still puts us at around 700,000 deaths. Kind of see what I was driving towards in this and the skepticism thread?
330,000,000 x 70% x (.12 to .24%) = 323,400 to 646,800 deaths. I don't see how we'd have that many infections unless we recreated the Ohio prison conditions where 70% got it. In NY, 15% had antibodies. In CA, 5% had antibodies. 20% in Milan had antibodies. "The 70% will get it and 3% will die" was not a good thing for the WHO to scare people with.Point taken - I got the acronyms reversed, didn't I?
That's 70 minutes worth of video - will have to check out later. Or find a written transcript since I read faster than they talk.
Regardless, they did a pretty solid job of quarantining, testing, and the total deaths + recoveries are very close to the total number of cases so that's pretty hard data compared to what we have. Plus, I don't think it's a stretch to say that they are a much healthier populace than America in general. Even so, a total death rate of 2.3% of total cases (250 deaths out of 10,780 cases with 9,173 recovered) is a factor of 10 higher than what was posited in the Skepticism thread. Their curve has asypmtoted pretty well over the last few weeks too and we are nowhere close.
Let's be kind and say we mirror that death rate. Say only 10% of America contracts it. That still puts us at around 700,000 deaths. Kind of see what I was driving towards in this and the skepticism thread?
I think the original predictions by sober epidemiologists that it would be as bad as the 1957 flu were most likely with no mitigation (150,000 - 300,000). Some mitigation was needed such as sheltering the elderly, hand washing, etc. Total lockdown is absolutely insane. 80,000 died in the 2017-2018 flu season.
Where do you get 0.24%? That's a factor of 10 lower than South Korea. Don't say that Stanford study because it was really half-assed.
I think 70% of the population contracting is quite a bit of a stretch, which is why I used 10%. And with that number and the South Korean death rate (which I would say we triple at the least but we'll be conservative), that puts us at the 700,000 level.
We'll be over 80,000 by May 10.
I think 70% of the population contracting is quite a bit of a stretch, which is why I used 10%. And with that number and the South Korean death rate (which I would say we triple at the least but we'll be conservative), that puts us at the 700,000 level.
We'll be over 80,000 by May 10.
I think we are seeing this stuff has been here in the states for a lot longer than we thought it was. So many people flying into and out of the hot zone.
Climate may be a big factor. Look at New York. It's been cold all through the time they hit their peak. California by example. The weather here is so much warmer. The climate holds the infection rates/severity down.
It will be an eye opener when there finally is enough adequate, reliable testing in place to cover everybody. California could have a huge infected population but the climate is keeping it in check.
Time will tell.
Climate may be a big factor. Look at New York. It's been cold all through the time they hit their peak. California by example. The weather here is so much warmer. The climate holds the infection rates/severity down.
It will be an eye opener when there finally is enough adequate, reliable testing in place to cover everybody. California could have a huge infected population but the climate is keeping it in check.
Time will tell.
that is a green light and those fvcktards are blocking traffic. According to Gdaddy and some others in these parts I believe vehicular homicide would be justifiable.
Every local has its characters.
One of ours is "Obama Bob". He is an ex so cal CHP officer. He took his retirement and bailed out of lovely Southern California and we ended up with him. (Fvck all of you). He was a LEO for the OP Huntington riots. I wish they would recall him back to duty right now,'
One of ours is "Obama Bob". He is an ex so cal CHP officer. He took his retirement and bailed out of lovely Southern California and we ended up with him. (Fvck all of you). He was a LEO for the OP Huntington riots. I wish they would recall him back to duty right now,'
The Stanford study wasn't half-assed at all. It wasn't perfect, but no study is given the availability of testing. USC got the same IFR. So did NY. At the Ohio prison, they tested the entire prison and ended-up IFR of %.15. That's 4 studies giving the same number. Every single time, the news finds some way of panning it. Back of the envelope, we were told at the outset that this was 4-8 times worse than the flu. Ok, multiply average yearly death toll of the flu by 8 and you get about 320k to 400k.
Here's a discussion on CFR and some estimates of IFR. It's difficult to estimate both in real time, but it ain't 2%:
Global Covid-19 Case Fatality Rates - The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine
The total number of cases and the total number of deaths from COVID-19 outbreak data was drawn down (scraped) from Worldometers.
www.cebm.net
That's 5 studies saying the same thing now.
Because they take their shelter in place order seriously. They don't question, they obey. And they will come out at the end better for it.
Fck em. Arrest them all. And if they start beating on cars that are attempting to pass them then hit the gas.
The actual numbers in South Korea are over 2% and that is with it asymptoting. You may not like it but the math doesn't lie and they are a good test case.The Stanford study wasn't half-assed at all. It wasn't perfect, but no study is given the availability of testing. USC got the same IFR. So did NY. At the Ohio prison, they tested the entire prison and ended-up IFR of %.15. That's 4 studies giving the same number. Every single time, the news finds some way of panning it. Back of the envelope, we were told at the outset that this was 4-8 times worse than the flu. Ok, multiply average yearly death toll of the flu by 8 and you get about 320k to 400k.
Here's a discussion on CFR and some estimates of IFR. It's difficult to estimate both in real time, but it ain't 2%:
Global Covid-19 Case Fatality Rates - The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine
The total number of cases and the total number of deaths from COVID-19 outbreak data was drawn down (scraped) from Worldometers.
That's 5 studies saying the same thing now.
I was kind by calling the Stanford study half-assed apparently. Curious what others thought and found this right off the bat. This is a decent breakdown on the flaws in that study. And it's pretty galling.
Concerns with that Stanford study of coronavirus prevalence | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
BTW, your link showed a Case Fatality Rate range of 0.82% to 9.64% worldwide with the US at 5.75% - 5.84% for 95% Confidence Interval. That's substantially higher than 2%. South Korea is at 2.09% - 2.60%, right in line with the worldometers link.
As far as IFR, we'll need more antibody testing to truly determine it. Those are all extremely small sample sizes.
It's really unfair to compare South Korea with America. They were totally prepared for this, having learned lessons from SARS (which was bad there) and had all kinds of systems in place. They tested the sh!t out pf people early, tracked cases heavily, locked down individuals and some communities hard, restricted domestic movement, and got public buy-in early and still have it.
In America we had no systems in place, have leadership that didn't do sh!t in the critical early days, and have been scrambling since day 1. Plus, the natives are now getting restless and some will sign their own death warrants to get out of lockdown.
In America we had no systems in place, have leadership that didn't do sh!t in the critical early days, and have been scrambling since day 1. Plus, the natives are now getting restless and some will sign their own death warrants to get out of lockdown.
Duh.
It's not even the same decade dummy.
Or the same century.
LMAO @ U dum dum
Look what they did today!
