Who's nervous about the Mentawais now?

[wally]

The whole terrorist thing never worried me and there were a few seasons where crowds were at a minimum coz lots of people sat it out. But the whole earthquake/tsunami thing is getting a bit spooky. Seems like the whole region has got geologically unhinged. Now Mt Talang next to Padang has become active.
(surfers village article)

Anyone else thinking about leaving the Ments alone this year?

 

[Reality Check]

Remember Krakatoa!! Something similar will happen again(maybe not now) <img src="/forum/images/graemlins/socrazy.gif" alt="" />..lot's of seismic weirdness led up to Krakatoa.

 

[adikgede]

The whole earthquake/tsunami thing is getting a bit spooky. Seems like the whole region has got geologically unhinged. Now Mt Talang next to Padang has become active.
(surfers village article)

Now Tangkuban Perahu in West Java is spewing more than usual.

I am not old enough to remember Krakatua, but the Islands of Indonesia would not exist without earthquakes and volcanoes. The only thing that is different now is that people have more TVs.

 

[Reality Check]

I am not old enough to remember Krakatua

Since it happened it 1883 not many if any people are old enough to remember it <img src="/forum/images/graemlins/foreheadslap.gif" alt="" />

Here is a web page to refresh your memory.

Some interesting facts the noise was heard over 3,000 miles away.

Volcanic Ash was present as far away as New York City and most of Western Europe <img src="/forum/images/graemlins/socrazy.gif" alt="" />

 

[Indo Surf]

This will sort out the "nervous Nellies" from the true believers. HEAPS of surfers telling me they reckon it will now be less crowded and are booking their trips knowing they'll score THE WORLD'S BEST WAVES with less crowds than before. The danger has always been there, Indo has 160 active volcanoes, but he who dares wins... and he who stays home surfs mush. Plus the best way to help those people whose lives were trashed by the tsunami/earthquakes is to continue travelling to the region. <img src="/forum/images/graemlins/cool.gif" alt="" />

 

[diroberts]

I wouldn't go there if I was you.

 

[BrownFish]

Just got back from the Mentawais last night. Felt the big earthquake on the boat. We shook for a good minute, and on a boat nonetheless. Most tour operators and boat captains say bookings are way down. I would say we were pretty lucky and surfed alone at least 50% of the time. But there were occasions when 4 or 5 boats would be present at any given time at the well known breaks (Macas and Lances). During those times it wouldn't be uncommon for 15-20 guys to be out in the water. Everyone was very cordial and usually waited thier turn. We usually moved on when there were more than two boats present at any given time. So to answer your question, the general consensus is that the Mentawais are less crowded so far this year than in the past few. You have to weigh your odds. With the location of the last earthquake being just off Padang, and the forecast for a bigger one in the same area, your talking about a possible repeat of the Tsunami in December, but the difference is that Padang and the Mentawais will be in the direct path of the Tsunami. With these recent events, and also having a family to support, there is no way I would go back until the situation stabilizes. If I were single without kids, I would be back in a heartbeat.

 

[toPBk]

and the forecast for a bigger one in the same area,

anybody making such claims is doing so based on hunches and witchcraft-

the state of the science does not allow for such predictions

and I hope to God that I am not jinxing anything - the area sure doesn't needa naother catastrophe - but i thought I'd shed a little light on the topic of "prediction <img src="/forum/images/graemlins/rolleyes.gif" alt="" />"

I'd go back tomoorow if i could get away

 

[adikgede]

anybody making such claims is doing so based on hunches and witchcraft

I think the part that people are leaving out is the time frame. I heard a seismologist from Sumatara on the Radio and after Dec 26 he was predicting another large quake further south, but within the next fifty years. He was later surprised when the first Nias quake happened. There was another quake there on Friday.

Its not hard to predict that quakes will happen, just when they will happen.