Where the South's At?

[r32]

Not that I've had any chance at surfing the past month, but where tf are the south swells this summer? So far, I think we've had one real swell arrive and it was pretty small.

They also claiming El Nino through 2024. My Hawaiian buddy in Laguna says the water still cold down there, colder than usual for July.

Realtime El Niño Measurements | El Nino Theme Page - A comprehensive Resource

www.pmel.noaa.gov

 

[ElOgro]

Not that I've had any chance at surfing the past month, but where tf are the south swells this summer? So far, I think we've had one real swell arrive and it was pretty small.

They also claiming El Nino through 2024. My Hawaiian buddy in Laguna says the water still cold down there, colder than usual for July.

Realtime El Niño Measurements | El Nino Theme Page - A comprehensive Resource

www.pmel.noaa.gov

View attachment 158418

I’ll let you know five days in advance.

 

[jkb]

Worst El Nino ever.

(I'm hoping this bites me in the ass and we actually have the best El Nino ever).

 

[One-Off]

Spring was fun ...in June I only surfed 2 days , July only 4.

 

[silentbutdeadly]

water went from 58-60 in s/central sd to 68-71 in just a week.

worst first half of the year for swell I've ever experienced.

I hope the kid fvcks hard this winter

 

[erik1938]

Wait until Fall....El Nino should kick in with the waves then

 

[estreet]

Still forcing myself to use a spring suit.

 

[ElOgro]

water went from 58-60 in s/central sd to 68-71 in just a week.

worst first half of the year for swell I've ever experienced.

I hope the kid fvcks hard this winter

The water here never got under 78 and that was from a couple of days of upwelling from a junk long period south. No fish.

 

[Duffy LaCoronilla]

Not that I've had any chance at surfing the past month, but where tf are the south swells this summer? So far, I think we've had one real swell arrive and it was pretty small.

It’s been crap, yes.

They also claiming El Nino through 2024. My Hawaiian buddy in Laguna says the water still cold down there, colder than usual for July.

Oh, boy. Here we go…

El Nino is warmer than average ocean water in the equatorial pacific. It has absolutely nothing to do with the water temp in Laguna. Nothing. Local Southern California water temp is almost entirely based on local conditions and the long shore current (or lack thereof).

As for swells related to El Nino...

While it’s true that we’ve had some epic winters that coincided with El Niños if you cross reference swell activities year by year with El Niño, La niña and “normal” years you will find no correlation between these things.

One thing that does happen sometimes during El Niños is that winter storms drop into lower latitudes so swells produced by them will come in with more west.

Lastly - rain…

Again, look at rainfall totals for a given area in California and you will find no correlation between rain fall seasonal totals and El Niño. What can happen is that when storms do hit they contain more moisture because of their more southerly track, but the amount of storms doesn’t appear to be affected (and hence the number of swell events is also unaffected).

It amazes me to no end all of the misinformation there is in the media about El Niño.

 

[SurfMission]

El Nino lowers the storm tract and offers up more westerly swell directions. Since we live in a world of algorithms, I would venture to guess that the lower storm tract greatly increases the odds of atmospheric rivers developing like the ones we experienced this last year. Thus, we see insane rainfall totals. Obviously more westerly storm direction brings more swell to more places in SoCal.

The last legit El Nino we had was late 90s. 97/98? I was living in Mission Beach and it was basically unsurfable for about 6 weeks that winter because it was too big. The amount of storm damage was incredible. You could stand underneath the boardwalk so much sand was washed away. The beach was literally 10 feet underneath the boardwalk in places. The rain never stopped. It was bananas.

The other legit El Nino of our lifetime was 82. I remember reading an old surfer mag from that winter that had a pic of Blacks on the cover, and the writer said something to the effect that the surf had been overhead for 2 straight months. I didn’t surf then (learned the following summer), so can’t really speak to that one, but sounds like it was probably similar.

The rest of these El Nino events are weak by comparison and aren’t going to offer up any hard data. I think that the El Nino we are entering has early potential to be like the two mentioned above based on current sea surface data.

Or not.

 

[r32]

97/98 is also the El Nino I have engrained in my mind.

There are mysto spots I saw breaking that February for weeks on end, which I've never seen break again. There were sandbars where I've never seen sandbars. I remember all the surfers in the office I worked for in SLO, we would drive to Shell, Avila, or PIsmo on our lunch hour just to see the massive waves.

I remember my buddy and I, along with a few others trying to paddle out at double-o Shell beach on a nasty day. It was wrapping and connecting into a cove way down the line, like a mile long ride if you could get into it and race it. Getting out was brutal. By the time we got out, I remember saying HOLY sh!t because I looked over, and were basically inline with Bird Rock which waves were trying to cap off of. We were way the fuck out there.

Only three of us made it out. And each of us only rode one wave.

My buddy took off first and caught the wave of the day. He said he dropped in, and pumped it as hard as he could. He rode it so far, he needed a ride back to the parking lot because he walked up at another beach a mile away.

Then I took off. I totally got caught behind the lip on mine as it pitched on my bottom turn. I got destroyed in the flats. There were no reef to walk up on so I spent time trying to not die along the cliff edge as the water bashed me good.

The third guy also screwed up and got smashed and ragdolled into where I was. I watched him get pummeled as I was getting beat down in 3' of water next to the cliffs. Full on whitewater rinse party. Me and that guy also ended up coming in at another spot because we had no chance making it back to the usual entry/exit spot. Every time I tried to paddle sideways along the cliff, the current just kept pushing me down the line.

I'll never forget the things I saw that winter. And every time El Nino comes up, it's all I have to compare it to.

 

[stringcheese]

Spring hasn't ended on the central coast yet, 55 degree water with bad wind all hours and no swell. On the positive side, I've been rocking a 2mm ziperless hyperfreak and it's the perfect wetsuit for mid 50s temp.

 

[stringcheese]

97/98 is also the El Nino I have engrained in my mind.

There are mysto spots I saw breaking that February for weeks on end, which I've never seen break again. There were sandbars where I've never seen sandbars. I remember all the surfers in the office I worked for in SLO, we would drive to Shell, Avila, or PIsmo on our lunch hour just to see the massive waves.

I remember my buddy and I, along with a few others trying to paddle out at double-o Shell beach on a nasty day. It was wrapping and connecting into a cove way down the line, like a mile long ride if you could get into it and race it. Getting out was brutal. By the time we got out, I remember saying HOLY sh!t because I looked over, and were basically inline with Bird Rock which waves were trying to cap off of. We were way the fuck out there.

Only three of us made it out. And each of us only rode one wave.

My buddy took off first and caught the wave of the day. He said he dropped in, and pumped it as hard as he could. He rode it so far, he needed a ride back to the parking lot because he walked up at another beach a mile away.

Then I took off. I totally got caught behind the lip on mine as it pitched on my bottom turn. I got destroyed in the flats. There were no reef to walk up on so I spent time trying to not die along the cliff edge as the water bashed me good.

The third guy also screwed up and got smashed and ragdolled into where I was. Me and that guy also ended up coming in at another spot because we had no chance making it back to the usual spot with the crazy current and crazy tides.

I'll never forget the things I saw that winter. And every time El Nino comes up, it's all I have to compare it to.

That was the year I learned to surf. Er...survive in the ocean.
With a big "Bic" plastic 8 footer, neither soft top nor real surfboard. Paddling out next to/through pismo pier...paddling, and paddling, and paddling...hitting the water in frustration, crying, refusing to give up.
Probably rode nothing but white water and nearly drowned a dozen times before I ever rode an actual wave with a face on it much later.

I remember a huge right breaking waaay outside of what is now "ventana grill" north of pismo (pelican point then i think, with the spiral staircase behind the kitchen access that would take you down to a private beach) that I thought I was working myself up to surf one day. It hasn't broken since.

Also remember being denied at shell, trying so hard but not being able to break through the white water. Later being brought to sewers and falling in love.

 

[silentbutdeadly]

97/98 was a good year to live in the south 805

 

[gbg]

I agree this year is the worst 6 months in my 30 years in SD. Besides the sh!t durf, IB is so dirty I havent surfed there since I got a gnarly eye infection from surfing there in Feb. Tests are finding flesh eating bacteria. Parasitic worms in the sand. Never seen it this bad for so long. DMJ sand is sh!t. The thought of groveling in OB is not appealing. Nor is 150 guys out at Blacks. My stoke is pretty much gone. I'm just giving up. Nothing of interest until later in August according to surfline. I'm looking forward to my 2 week Delaware trip late August.

 

[r32]

This might be the worst spring/summer combo for swells and conditions I can remember. Total sh!t almost every day.

 

[Kento]

This might be the worst spring/summer combo for swells and conditions I can remember. Total sh!t almost every day.

Yes - today was no different. Just add fog.

 

[oneworlded]

I remember one storm that came in 97/98 and when it hit our apt on the Calafia loop in San Clem, the whole place shook like it was hit by a hurricane from the gusts - way harder than any Santa Ana I'd seen to that point. After growing up on the EC, I was like, oh, finally I get to feel a real storm in California. That was the year too, IIRC that Tom Curren surfed this giant sandspit that formed at Doheny. The water was black black black and the waves were giant and he was ripping the literal sh!t out of it.

 

[gbg]

Likely Hurricane Linda. At one point the news was showing it hitting San Diego as a Cat 3 Hurricane with 10-15 inches of rain. It fizzled but we still got tropical storms winds. I surfed Calafia in Mexico in the morning. It was 5 of us and I was on a 7'0. It was firing. 10-15 foot faces and going for a couple hundred yards. One of the best days I have ever surfed in Baja.

 

[oneworlded]

Likely Hurricane Linda. At one point the news was showing it hitting San Diego as a Cat 3 Hurricane with 10-15 inches of rain. It fizzled but we still got tropical storms winds. I surfed Calafia in Mexico in the morning. It was 5 of us and I was on a 7'0. It was firing. 10-15 foot faces and going for a couple hundred yards. One of the best days I have ever surfed in Baja.

I don't think so. It was a proper winter storm that swung way south. IIRC Linda was late in the fall.