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Something we all can agree on
- Thread starter Ifallalot
- Start date
I might also add, at most, 365 day sunset provision on those Fed meeting minutes.
I remember when I was the biggest Fed chugger on this board. Dual mandate for unemployment and inflation. Cool.
I remember when a bailout involved a bait bucket and a fair bit of sweat.
I remember when I was the biggest Fed chugger on this board. Dual mandate for unemployment and inflation. Cool.
I remember when a bailout involved a bait bucket and a fair bit of sweat.
i agree with you that the top guys are wildly overpaid
on the assets the fed buys, don’t forget that they are buying in the middle of a panic and then holding long term
A lot of these assets recover when the panic subsides
I’m sure you will hate this answer, but there were a lot of lessons learned from 2008
you are not seeing, today, the types of massive forced mergers among major banks we saw in September 2008
yes, the Fed is massively lending and that is a major reason for this
but another reason is banks massively reworked their capital structures in the last 10 yrs
is the system still inherently unstable? Yes. That is the result of fractional reserve banking as a system though
If you look at history, you will not see banks withstanding financial conditions like we just had in the last few weeks in the same way
it’s a massive credit to the fed that we still have a functioning economy right now, both on the lending side and the regulatory side leading up to this
if it’s a permanent ban on minutes I agree that’s suspect
the executive pay thing is a problem in most large companies
not saying that makes it ok on wall st but it is not really that different
all of these institutions overwhelmingly employ regular peons. There’s a tiny slice at the top who get paid out the ass like at most big companies
Billy how do you know this is the middle of the panic, and not the start? Did we not hear basically this EXACT PRECISE line of thinking with respect to stock buybacks 7-8-9 YEARS into a bull run?
I'm sure everyone's cousin works at so and such bank and is killing it. By and large, sh!t ain't worth what it was worth when the "smartest guys in the room" did the buybacks.
I already addressed several asset classes we should have ZERO confidence in going up long term.
There is exactly zero incentive for any depreciating asset to be worth more when panic subsides.
Every single delinquent car loan is dogshit garbage. Every single one.
Every single means of production depreciating asset corporate debt was incurred to finance is dogshit garbage. Tractors, computers, servers, lathes and CNCs, deep fryers, ice makers, washers and dryers in hotels, lifts in car shops, etc. The future earnings just took a monster sh!t and the asset itself isn't worth jack diddly after a few years.
Commercial real estate. Going down. Malls sitting empty. Garbage.
Homes were about the best possible scenario. Widespread and considered an appreciating asset. Way less cyclical than other items relatively speaking. Generally one of the last asset classes to go from non-discretionary to discretionary. Look what happened.
What is your argument in support of your assertion that "a lot" of these assets recover when the panic subsides? What is "a lot"? 15%?
Sooner or later, I'm expecting to have to buy another unit for my Dad. He lives on the 2nd floor and he won't be able to do the stairs forever.
The places where he lives that sold between 2004 and 2007 are all about $100k under that high water mark BEFORE this happened, and to give you an idea, I went to public school and he drove a cement mixer. $100k is a SHITLOAD in this context.
In a state with population growth, in an area with slow local growth and decent retiree growth.
You're right that I hate this answer.
If they learned their lessons they wouldn't need the money a week and a half into the crisis. Remember Bear Stearns shat the bed in March 2008? Are we even there yet relatively speaking? Let's see just where we are in September.
I just posted the graph of the market last time we had a pandemic, and that one killed .5% of the country. Killed it dead. The market did great until deflationary snafu-ery in 2020.
The executive pay at larger companies, I'm with you.
There is one difference in my mind.
The executives of lots of these other companies aren't committing fraud on purpose.
While I agree with most of your post, I question your assertion about commercial real estate. At least in terms of college towns and desirable areas, seems that commercial real estate is pricey AF
If I knew the answer to all of these questions I’d be a lot richer and would pay a monkey to post to erbb for me. So you’d never know the answer!
anyway, one of mike milken’s biggest insights was that the fear about distressed assets was way overblown
this was in the 80s. Now it is a cliche
would you believe there are massive funds being raised to buy distressed debt right now?
why would that be?
the financial situation today is worse than 2008 but banks are doing better
that is a success, relatively speaking
you are operating from an emotional standpoint
suffering of the major players in the financial system does not actually benefit the public
yes, it is infuriating that these people can douche it up in Nantucket and get bailed out but life’s not fair
We're a week and a half in; I might not dispute Palo Alto, Berkeley, Brentwood, and San Luis Obispo either.
First off, I have no idea why you think the financial situation today is worse than 2008. You have provided zero specifics or data for this assertion. Yes, a week and half in it's not as bad as the worst calamity more or less in living memory. Yay.
I am operating from a far more fact-based standpoint than you are. I am citing specific asset classes and you are speaking in the most general of terms possible. Zero factual basis for what you are claiming. In contrast, everyone knows new cars are a depreciating asset. That's a fact. Everyone knows means of production aka equipment are depreciating assets. It's practically an entire sub-field of Accounting. That's about the VERY BEST thing corporate debt could be spent on, shy of merger/acquisition, and leveraging to buy your competition BEFORE the snafu is **** poor timing, so from where I'm standing, that's out as well.
Based on the sh!t I'm hearing already about people moving back in with parents, I am also raising massive funds right now.
Why would that be? Why did Mnuchin buy IndyMac for a dollar? Did you have access to that trade, Billy?
What would it cost America to firing squad some of these people?
What did Edwin Starr tell us War was good for?