So how big's it gonna get Wed/Thurs/Fri on west coast?

SteveT

Phil Edwards status
Apr 11, 2005
5,867
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I've never seen it snow harder anywhere than Mammoth.
Mammoth is funny that way, depending on the direction of the system you can either get Sierra Cement of some of the finest powder west of the Rockies.
Just heard that here in SB our coastal mountains could get as much as 4"-8" of rain, that'll for sure help out Cachuma Lake, just hope some of the burn areas don't get ugly.
 

casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
43,214
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Petak Island
Big Sur is already holding. Where's Steak surfing? Wonder what Friday will look like up there?

View attachment 145050



I have to get a colonoscopy Thursday. Can I surf on Friday? I don't remember any after effects.
Too bad Steak isn't around anymore, he had lots of experience with both Big Sur AND colonscopies.:shrug::(

Poor guy. I do hope he's all right.
 

r32

Administrator
Staff member
Apr 1, 2005
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This swell might be the one to rival 2021. Except winds will prob be completely fooked.

1672808027082.png

or

First Mavericks Tow Swell
Storm 1 (October 28, 1999; Building La Nina)

Two years later tow-surfing came to Mavericks in a very big way. Peter Mel watched from shore when Ken Bradshaw rode his epic wave at Outer Log Cabins, and used that inspiration to build his own tow routine back home in Northern California. During the start of a long La Nina cycle, he and Ken (Skinny) Collins had polished their act enough to try it at Mavericks. And what an first show it was. The first significant storm of the season, Storm 1 was the exact opposite of the massive El Nino storms. But what it lacked in size and duration it made up for in intensity and positioning. Forming on the afternoon of 10/26 relatively close to shore, it generated sustained winds up to 55-65 kts before it mowed right over buoy 46006 (SE Papa). There seas to 53.7 ft were reported aimed right at Northern CA. This produced seas at buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay) at 18.0-21.8 ft @ 17 secs with decoded spectral wave density data indicating peak swell readings of 15.6 ft @ 18.5 secs (9 AM) to 16.7 ft @ 17.2 secs (11 AM) and 17.6 ft @ 15.7 secs (3 PM). This resulted in waves well into the 60+ ft range, and Peter and Ken had it essentially all to themselves.

1672808182819.png
 

keenfish

Duke status
May 12, 2002
18,754
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Trona
www.pbase.com
Yes.

In fact, if I'm not mistaken, the wettest years of the past decade have all been La Niña years.

But hey, we've got all this weather and climate stuff figured out.
Bruh.. it's all cyclical. We've never had more anchovies off the coast for the past 5 years. It's incredible.

This is right in stride.

Next... please bring back the Albacore.. Please!
 
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r32

Administrator
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Apr 1, 2005
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“When compared against benchmark events, like the solid west swell from February of 2008, this one has a realistic chance to be larger. While we are of high confidence Thursday into Friday will see one of the top five largest west-northwest swells of the last 15 years, there’s potential it could be the largest.

Thursday morning will feature a strong frontal boundary pushing into and through Southern California – with a significant pulse of south wind and southerly windswell, before a trend to westerly wind as the low pushes through. A rapid build in WNW swell will follow Thursday afternoon\, with a peak overnight before surf gradually eases on Friday. While Santa Barbara and Ventura will be very solid before dark, the timing of the peak swell energy will be largely overnight across other SoCal regions.







 
Feb 20, 2017
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This swell might be the one to rival 2021. Except winds will prob be completely fooked.

or

First Mavericks Tow Swell
Storm 1 (October 28, 1999; Building La Nina)

Two years later tow-surfing came to Mavericks in a very big way. Peter Mel watched from shore when Ken Bradshaw rode his epic wave at Outer Log Cabins, and used that inspiration to build his own tow routine back home in Northern California. During the start of a long La Nina cycle, he and Ken (Skinny) Collins had polished their act enough to try it at Mavericks. And what an first show it was. The first significant storm of the season, Storm 1 was the exact opposite of the massive El Nino storms. But what it lacked in size and duration it made up for in intensity and positioning. Forming on the afternoon of 10/26 relatively close to shore, it generated sustained winds up to 55-65 kts before it mowed right over buoy 46006 (SE Papa). There seas to 53.7 ft were reported aimed right at Northern CA. This produced seas at buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay) at 18.0-21.8 ft @ 17 secs with decoded spectral wave density data indicating peak swell readings of 15.6 ft @ 18.5 secs (9 AM) to 16.7 ft @ 17.2 secs (11 AM) and 17.6 ft @ 15.7 secs (3 PM). This resulted in waves well into the 60+ ft range, and Peter and Ken had it essentially all to themselves.
I remember that swell in 1999 sitting a pescadero point (not knowing it was going to later be ghost trees) and watching giant what seemed to be 100’ waves breaking across the bay at point lobos. Biggest waves I’ve ever seen.
 

Sharky

Phil Edwards status
Feb 25, 2006
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So far? :sleep:

I’m sure it’s a different story up north, around the corner. But here… not so much. Sloppy and 4-5’
 

r32

Administrator
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Apr 1, 2005
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So far? :sleep:

I’m sure it’s a different story up north, around the corner. But here… not so much. Sloppy and 4-5’
Big swell doesn't arrive until tomorrow afternoon/evening in CenCal. Peaking tomorrow night.

There are a handful of mysto spots around the CC that have broke maybe 5x in the last 20+ years. Will be interesting to see if they are going again. One of these mysto spots is a 20'+ right off some outer reef I never knew existed until I first saw it breaking in '97. I pulled up to this spot and was jaw dropped to see this massive point-break looking wave breaking in a spot I'd never seen before. I still have an old Ektachrome slide somewhere.

Too bad the winds are going to destroy the conditions this time around.