***Official Real Estate Thread***

One-Off

Tom Curren status
Jul 28, 2005
10,335
4,943
113
33.8N - 118.4W
buy when there's blood in the streets

I quote that to my boss every time he says I'm crazy for buying land in an unstable dictatorship
A friend of mine's husband was a day trader. In the weeks after the Northridge earthquake in 1994 he went and bought a house there at a greatly depressed price. My friend would answer the phone, "Epicenter." He said it was unlikely a earthquake would hit the same spot in the coming years.
 

Subway

Tom Curren status
Dec 31, 2008
10,308
4,750
113
LBNY
We paid easily 100-200 k less than we would have, had Sandy not destroyed half the homes in Long Beach and scared away all the buyers just 2 years prior. Soon after we bought, the spigot turned back on, and homes were once again selling closer to normal pre sandy prices, and now with this COVID fueled suburban and remote work boom, now it’s just nuts. We could sell our place for almost double what we paid 7 years ago
 

hammies

Rabbitt Bartholomew status
Apr 8, 2006
8,164
4,797
113
Houses continue to be bid up. The last 4 homes sold in my neighborhood have gone for an average of $187K over asking price. All were cash sales. I don't see it slowing down anytime soon, it seems that there a lot of people with a couple mil cash.
 

keenfish

Duke status
May 12, 2002
17,166
3,027
113
Trona
www.pbase.com
Houses continue to be bid up. The last 4 homes sold in my neighborhood have gone for an average of $187K over asking price. All were cash sales. I don't see it slowing down anytime soon, it seems that there a lot of people with a couple mil cash.
I wish I was one of those people with a couple mil cash.

The possibilities are endless at this stage of the game.
 
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r32

Administrator
Staff member
Apr 1, 2005
15,317
4,922
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Cambria
Leverage my man. There are still deals to be made, using the banks money
This. I didn't realize it until my late 30's how much wealthy people are leveraged to the tilt. As a stupid know-it-all college student, I just assumed uber wealthy paid for everything with cash.

If you know what you're doing when it comes to finances and you run a tight ship, leverage can be a game changer for building wealth.
 

SurfFuerteventura

Phil Edwards status
Sep 20, 2014
6,111
2,311
113
hulling, mostly...
This. I didn't realize it until my late 30's how much wealthy people are leveraged to the tilt. As a stupid know-it-all college student, I just assumed uber wealthy paid for everything with cash.

If you know what you're doing when it comes to finances and you run a tight ship, leverage can be a game changer for building wealth.
First thing I learnt banking for the ubber wealthy, NEVER LOSE YOUR OWN MONEY, WHEN YOU CAN LOSE SOMEONE ELSE'S.

:shrug::shameonyou::socrazy:

Back on topic...

20211120_084319.jpg

...my neighbor has put his house up for quick sale, it's listed for €230,000.00. The one immediately below, on the main road, for €430,000.00.

Looking into buying it "for a friend" and flipping after one year's rental income to cover all the taxes involved in both transactions.

Always play with "other people's" money.

:computer::waving::shaka:
 
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Subway

Tom Curren status
Dec 31, 2008
10,308
4,750
113
LBNY
Yeah I literally put 3% down 7 years ago using an FHA, easily covered that down payment by a loan to myself from my 401k, and have since doubled what was essentially a no cost purchase, except for closing costs and all that extra stuff that goes into a home purchase. and we got a gorgeous home near the beach. We can rent it any summer we want for 50-60 k, I’ll be paid off in 15 years or less, and it will be the gift that keeps on giving
 

Mr Doof

Duke status
Jan 23, 2002
22,444
4,335
113
San Francisco, CA
20% from the 4600 value on the date the original comment of October 30th should do, say anything sub 3700 and prepare to pay up :poke:

i'd prefer you send usdc. but if you need to learn up and ditch the paypal, there is still time. we in the digital age, can't remember the last time I mailed a check :monkey:
Ah, the taste of refreshing humorous snark aside, we just need to iron a few things out.

1) S & P 500 closing price of 10/30/2021 doesn't exist (it was a Saturday). So we need to choose a date close to it. The 29th or the 1st of November. I like closing prices for determining this, but am willing to accept open, high, or low price of the day. Your choice what will be the actual number used to determine the starting point. Let us not be vague about this or round things too much; we should want to use real actual reported figures because it cuts out avenues for wriggling to avoid paying up (on both sides). Two decimal point rounding maximum as per standard reporting.
1637693545348.png

2) 20% decline = financial collapse is acceptable to me for the purposes of this bet. Once we agree on the starting figure that is based on the above actual price of the S & P 500 index, we can calculate what the same price needed to plainly show winner/loser.

3) 4/30/2022 as ending date is acceptable to you, correct?

4) I have no USD Coin assets in my Coinbase account and do not prefer to settle bets with it that account or convert any holdings to it. Paypal was one of the first free ways to send USD in this new digital age of ours and doesn't carry any conversion costs and it is where I have some mad money, so it just was an easy pathway for me to pay up or collect on this sort of thing. I get you not having such an account, and I also understand you not wanting paper cheque due to sending/received/cashing hassles, so ok, not that way. Is there compromise here or some other avenue to use for settling the $100 wager? Please don't say Western Union or Hawala. By they way, I still pay property tax with paper cheques because SF Tax Collector (and other institutions that also) charges for electronic payments. I'm like, "Hey, this saves us both money and hassle, why charge for it?"

5) And to be absolutely clear, you are thinking that a 20% decline does not mean a single day event (which is what I was originally thinking). For example, if we frame this bet on opening price 11/1/2021 of 4610.62 and it drops bit by bit to anything at or below 3688.5 at any point between between start of 11/1/2021 and close of 4/30/2022, then you win means that you win the bet? Or do you mean that if we frame this bet on opening price 11/1/2021 of 4610.62 regardless of the ups and downs between start of 11/1/2021 and close of 4/30/2022, the closing price of 4/30/2022 needs to anything at or below 3688.5 means you win the bet. I admit to wanting the 2nd option. We can negotiate on this. Again, just want to avoid possible settlement crap and know we have a firm agreement.
 
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LifeOnMars

Michael Peterson status
Jan 14, 2020
2,997
2,025
113
Ah, the taste of refreshing humorous snark aside, we just need to iron a few things out.

1) S & P 500 closing price of 10/30/2021 doesn't exist (it was a Saturday). So we need to choose a date close to it. The 29th or the 1st of November. I like closing prices for determining this, but am willing to accept open, high, or low price of the day. Your choice what will be the actual number used to determine the starting point. Let us not be vague about this or round things too much; we should want to use real actual reported figures because it cuts out avenues for wriggling to avoid paying up (on both sides). Two decimal point rounding maximum as per standard reporting.
View attachment 119720
let's say 4615 was the close on 11/1 for simplicity, so roughly 4615-20% which is about 3700. 3700 under or over, I call under. Do you call over? A gambling man are you? No decimal points necessary, no poindexter mathematics required.

4,690.70 value today 11/23, 1000 point drop within the next 5 months

Paypal is ok, I have it but rarely use it.
 

Subway

Tom Curren status
Dec 31, 2008
10,308
4,750
113
LBNY
Wow I don’t know if I’m rooting for a collapse just to see this bet play out to a photo finish! Who needs financial security when you can have erBB monkey knife fights over the fate of the S&P! Who wants to start some side action and prop bets?!
 

Mr Doof

Duke status
Jan 23, 2002
22,444
4,335
113
San Francisco, CA
let's say 4615 was the close on 11/1 for simplicity, so roughly 4615-20% which is about 3700. 3700 under or over, I call under. Do you call over? A gambling man are you? No decimal points necessary, no poindexter mathematics required.

4,690.70 value today 11/23, 1000 point drop within the next 5 months

Paypal is ok, I have it but rarely use it.

1) S&P500 at 4615 to start - agreed

2) S&P500 at 3700 or under is win for you and lose for me while 3700.01 or over is win for me and lose for you- agreed

2a) I do not expect the price to ever be a whole number and I don't want us arguing that 3700.46 means you win because of rounding down is sensible while I try to argue that we said, "3700 or under means 3700.00 not 3700.46" We certainly can discuss this more if you like.

3) End date of bet is 4/30/2022 - agreed

4) Paypal for payout - agreed (and thanks for this.....rarely use it too, I think I last used it when buying bike parts from Japan last winter.

5) And this is the last thing, if it drops under 3700 at any point before 4/30/2022 but is 3700.01 or over at end of trading day 4/30/2022 who wins? I am guessing you would say you are the winner because it hit the number, while I would contend it is not financial collapse if it recovers within the time period allowed. What are you thoughts on this aspect? Just want to make things as binary as possible so there is no settlement accountant/lawyer gaming...lets do that that crap up front.

6) Anything else that you think needs to be addressed before we shake hands on this bet? We're almost there.
 
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LifeOnMars

Michael Peterson status
Jan 14, 2020
2,997
2,025
113
1) S&P500 at 4615 to start - agreed

2) S&P500 at 3700 or under is win for you and lose for me while 3700.01 or over is win for me and lose for you- agreed

2a) I do not expect the price to ever be a whole number and I don't want us arguing that 3700.46 means you win because of rounding down is sensible while I try to argue that we said, "3700 or under means 3700.00 not 3700.46" We certainly can discuss this more if you like.

3) End date of bet is 4/30/2022 - agreed

4) Paypal for payout - agreed (and thanks for this.....rarely use it too, I think I last used it when buying bike parts from Japan last winter.

5) And this is the last thing, if it drops under 3700 at any point before 4/30/2022 but is 3700.01 or over at end of trading day 4/30/2022 who wins? I am guessing you would say you are the winner because it hit the number, while I would contend it is not financial collapse if it recovers within the time period allowed. What are you thoughts on this aspect? Just want to make things as binary as possible so there is no settlement accountant/lawyer gaming...lets do that that crap up front.

6) Anything else that you think needs to be addressed before we shake hands on this bet? We're almost there.
we'll do the close price on 4/30 to determine the winner.

over 3700 and your paypal account will be $100 richer, 3700 and under your $100 furnishes my bare paypal account.

e-shake the terms of the deal have been accepted
 

Subway

Tom Curren status
Dec 31, 2008
10,308
4,750
113
LBNY
I fukking love this in case you hadn’t noticed. I got $500 on Mr Doof. Anyone want to take that action? What’s the over under on how many replies and comments this thread eventually generates by the time the contest officially ends at midnight or closing bell or whatever?
 
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keenfish

Duke status
May 12, 2002
17,166
3,027
113
Trona
www.pbase.com
I fukking love this in case you hadn’t noticed. I got $500 on Mr Doof. Anyone want to take that action? What’s the over under on how many replies and comments this thread eventually generates by the time the contest officially ends at midnight or closing bell or whatever?
If you get a taker on that wager I will cover half your bet if you want to share it and let me ride along. :shaka:
 
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Mr Doof

Duke status
Jan 23, 2002
22,444
4,335
113
San Francisco, CA
we'll do the close price on 4/30 to determine the winner.

over 3700 and your paypal account will be $100 richer, 3700 and under your $100 furnishes my bare paypal account.

e-shake the terms of the deal have been accepted

E-shake on the following:

1) we'll do the close price on 4/30 to determine the winner.

2) over 3700 and Mr Doof's paypal account will be $100 richer, 3700 and under LifeOnMars is $100 richer.

Now to bookmark this thread.
 
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