***Official Real Estate Thread***

Sharkbiscuit

Duke status
Aug 6, 2003
20,156
11,807
113
Jacksonville Beach
There's no armageddon hypothesis coming from me.
Okay, how about the bloodbath hypothesis?

This is not going to be a joke - it's going to be a bloodbath
@casa_mugrienta when you say bloodbath, what would you characterize the 2008 snafu as?
A friction burn on your pepis (man or woman parts) from a bad handy.
look at the macroeconomic situation of the United States (needs to default to get a handle on things).
I consider a default to be very bad. If 2008 was a friction burn on the pepis, and you predict a bloodbath, under what conditions would you say the bloodbath hypothesis had not come to fruition?

2-3% inflation, GDP growth similar range, U5 under 8%, no default on the debt, within the next 5 years?
 

Icu812

Legend (inyourownmind)
Jun 23, 2013
483
893
93
71
WEST of 101
After reading the history of that property I would imagine COVID was probably the last straw for the owner.

Sounds like he was being pretty cool but people took advantage. Rather than turn into a total dick he's chosen just to bail instead, and probably take a nice profit.

Even if I had that money, considering the history, I don't think I'd want to own it.
Not so sure about the COVID, seems more like the guy had bigger dreams than the permitting/terrain would allow. It's steep and pretty much dead smack dab on the last landfall of the San Andreas fault. Somebody will buy it though, probably can only build one house.
 

casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
38,010
12,246
113
Petak Island
Okay, how about the bloodbath hypothesis?






I consider a default to be very bad. If 2008 was a friction burn on the pepis, and you predict a bloodbath, under what conditions would you say the bloodbath hypothesis had not come to fruition?
Like I said before - the macroeconomic situation in which occurred the 2008 crisis is in no way comparable to today and did not result in stagflation, where in the case of the current economic crisis it appears stagflation is rather likely.

Further, stimulus is not an arrow in the Fed's arsenal if they want to have inflation under control. Free money = inflation.

The era of parabolic stonk market movement is likely over, this has big implications for 401ks
 
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Sharkbiscuit

Duke status
Aug 6, 2003
20,156
11,807
113
Jacksonville Beach
Like I said before - the macroeconomic situation in which occurred the 2008 crisis is in no way comparable to today and did not result in stagflation, where in the case of the current economic crisis it appears stagflation is rather likely.

Further, stimulus is not an arrow in the Fed's arsenal if they want to have inflation under control. Free money = inflation.

The era of parabolic stonk market movement is likely over, this has big implications for 401ks
I was just looking for a magnitude comparison.

All I am asking you for now is what conditions you will agree a default or runaway inflation appears not to have come to pass.

I would say if we have 2-3% inflation, GDP growth similar range, U5 under 8%, no default on the debt, within the next 5 years, it would appear that default or runaway inflation appears to have been avoided one way or the other.

Would you agree or disagree with that?
 
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casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
38,010
12,246
113
Petak Island
I was just looking for a magnitude comparison.

All I am asking you for now is what conditions you will agree a default or runaway inflation appears not to have come to pass.

I would say if we have 2-3% inflation, GDP growth similar range, U5 under 8%, no default on the debt, within the next 5 years, it would appear that default or runaway inflation appears to have been avoided one way or the other.

Would you agree or disagree with that?
Absolutely not.

Periods of runaway inflation in the US economy have tended to not last very long and there have been periods of considerable volatility. And there have been many years of runaway inflation followed by minimal inflation immediately followed by more inflation.

Further there is so much sh!t going on outside the US economy...I have nofuckingclue and cant even being to speculate!

 

casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
38,010
12,246
113
Petak Island
You've been speculating pretty hard for a while, just own that
I have been providing data.

All of the data points in a negative direction.

If you can provide positive data please post here. I've been looking but can't find it.

I cannot speculate beyond the present as we are entering a world the global economy has not yet experienced.
 

casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
38,010
12,246
113
Petak Island
Casa is an occasional hysterical End of the Worlder, unless trolling.
Remember when you told me everything would be a-OK after shutting down the economy and restricting business operations for months and in some cases an entire year?

You went on to mock me at some point in 2021 saying I had been full of sh!t when I told you how it was going to fvvk us and the repurcussions would not be immediate.

This demonstrated how little you know on these sorts of topics.

No wonder you had to exit the "business world" (whatever that was) - you're unfit to run a garage sale!
 

mundus

Duke status
Feb 26, 2018
26,840
9,363
113
No I do not? Remember when you predicted a total collapse of Western Civ many times. Own you sthick.
 

casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
38,010
12,246
113
Petak Island
No I do not?
Of course you don't, you were probably drunk.

But you did, and I remember chuckling to myself.

Remember when you predicted a total collapse of Western Civ many times. Own you sthick.
Lol that was another poster.

Standard of living decline and volatility? A repeat of the 70s (in fact I repeated this specific prediction multiple times)? Yep, I sure did.

Like I said at the time "These are the moments where politicians start do do really stupid stuff, and people pay the price big time."

We are still deep in the midst of dealing with the repurcussions of the actions taken over the previous years.
 
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mundus

Duke status
Feb 26, 2018
26,840
9,363
113
Of course you don't, you were probably drunk.



Lol that was another poster.

Standard of living decline? Yep.

Like I said at the time "These are the moments where politicians start do do really stupid stuff, and people pay the price big time."

We are still deep in the midst of dealing with the repurcussions of the actions taken over the previous years.
BS, keep taking personal shots that you know nothing about like nasty the little manlet bitch you are.
 
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bluemarlin04

Michael Peterson status
Aug 13, 2015
2,476
2,266
113
This summer will be interesting. It’s historically when most people buy homes. Interest rates have jumped quite a bit.

Will this now make the rental market more competitive as people bow out of home buying?

My friend yesterday made the best analogy for buying. He said buying in southern California or Hawaii is a lot like being hungry at the airport. You’re gonna have to just bear it and pay 20 dollars for a 3 dollar sandwich. Only other option is not eat at all. And the only way the vendors ever gonna drop their prices is if people stop buying it but people are hungry and irrational and gonna keep paying.
 

sdsrfr

Miki Dora status
Jul 13, 2020
3,836
7,616
113
San Diego
My neighbor texted that to me & my wife Friday afternoon. Best typo ever...if only it were true.

Still, what a whirlwind of a sale. My wife and I were thinking of listing the house for sale near the end of summer and use the proceeds to put remodel our rental down in San Clemente. We met with our agent (long time friend of my wife) on Sunday 4/3 to discuss the possibility of her just having a 'pocket listing'. The discussion quickly turned to the potential interest rate increases and supply & demand of housing market and we decided to list it. Listed on Tuesday, open house on Saturday that resulted in 3 offers from 15-20% over asking price. Accepted offer went into 25 day escrow the following Tuesday, then just closed last Friday.
You mean you didnt stick the buyer with a 4month lease back to give you free residency through summer?!?

CA housing market - done
 

LiamUnknown

Nep status
Jun 16, 2004
901
96
28
My wife has been watching both the real estate and rental market pretty closely and her anecdotal info is rentals are starting to sit much longer and are not moving. She's also seeing that a ton of the rentals were very recent home purchases by what appear to be individual speculative investors, not corporations, at least in our area of NCSD.
 

sdsrfr

Miki Dora status
Jul 13, 2020
3,836
7,616
113
San Diego
My wife has been watching both the real estate and rental market pretty closely and her anecdotal info is rentals are starting to sit much longer and are not moving. She's also seeing that a ton of the rentals were very recent home purchases by what appear to be individual speculative investors, not corporations, at least in our area of NCSD.
i def think prices are getting tested at current levels.

my old dingbat 4-unit blocks from the beach sold to a wealthy couple down the street (all cash) while I was still there. new owners quick flipped the vacant units and jacked up rent by $1k. Took a couple months to fill units but they eventually did (all pre covid).

last I heard my old unit (moved 1yr ago) went for $1500 above my monthly and back of the envalope math suggests they are breaking even or better on the opportunity cost of their cash investment (If otherwise on fixed mortgage).

i think we will hit a lull but if the units are by the beach all those Amazon and Apple senior developers will scoop them up this summer.
 
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Joshua2415

Tom Curren status
Jul 18, 2005
10,958
6,751
113
San Clemente
You mean you didnt stick the buyer with a 4month lease back to give you free residency through summer?!?

CA housing market - done
No, buyers just closed escrow on their place up in LA and are moving down first of June. They are highly motivated to get out of LA (they're words) and agreed to let us stay through the end of May which is very generous given the amount that they paid.