***Official Real Estate Thread***

casa_mugrienta

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Apr 13, 2008
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Is it? How is something purchased at a lower price and sold at a higher price not a good investment?
Go to any country that experiences high inflation and you'll see.:toilet:

But that's not the point I was making.

At some point there was a massive deviation of prices from the CPI, there is a reason for this - monetary policy allowed the creation of asset bubbles.

The "housing can't crash, just goes up" posts in this thread pay no regard to the fact the situation we've grown accustomed to over the past few decades is not normal by any means, and the certainty ignores the economic situation at hand (likely stagflation) could very well bring prices back down to earth, and that the likely policies 10 years from now will not be as lenient as the world will likely change rather drastically from now til then.
 

PRCD

Tom Curren status
Feb 25, 2020
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Go to any country that experiences high inflation and you'll see.:toilet:

But that's not the point I was making.

At some point there was a massive deviation of prices from the CPI, there is a reason for this - monetary policy allowed the creation of asset bubbles.

The "housing can't crash, just goes up" posts in this thread pay no regard to the fact the situation we've grown accustomed to over the past few decades is not normal by any means, and the certainty ignores the economic situation at hand (likely stagflation) could very well bring prices back down to earth, and that the likely policies 10 years from now will not be as lenient as the world will likely change rather drastically from now til then.
Even if they turn the USA into a bank-owned latifundium, the trade-off will be social stability. When citizens don't have any skin in the game in terms of the ability to move up the economic ladder and acquire property, bets are off. See: Rome. We should expect a compressed timescale.
 

casa_mugrienta

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Apr 13, 2008
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Is it? How is something purchased at a lower price and sold at a higher price not a good investment?
Sometimes it is. Sometimes it isn't.

Because prices can rise but actually fall when adjusted for inflation.

For instance, in an inflationary environment prices can rise by 5% but fall by 20% when adjusted for inflation.
 

grapedrink

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May 21, 2011
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Go to any country that experiences high inflation and you'll see.:toilet:
Been to plenty of them. They also don't have the access to credit that we do, which makes buying property far more difficult.

At some point there was a massive deviation of prices from the CPI, there is a reason for this - monetary policy allowed the creation of asset bubbles.
Agreed, and buying into a property where you pay 5% interest can actually be a good deal compared to how those dollars are devalued over time.

The "housing can't crash, just goes up" posts in this thread pay no regard to the fact the situation we've grown accustomed to over the past few decades is not normal by any means, and the certainty ignores the economic situation at hand (likely stagflation) could very well bring prices back down to earth, and that the likely policies 10 years from now will not be as lenient as the world will likely change rather drastically from now til then.
If that happens, fine. I'll buy in at a discount and keep moving.

How long one should sit around waiting for a correction, and how this will affect everyday homeowners, is what I think is debatable.
 

grapedrink

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We are the world's largest debtor.

We used to be the creditor.

And now we're weaponizing the dollar in a big way.

That's why it's different this time around.
I've been hearing that for 20+ years. Which is why I don't wait on the sidelines for the "perfect opportunity" to jump in.
 

Mr Doof

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Jan 23, 2002
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What about debating at what point, and under what conditions, someone "wins" this thread, and has carte blanche to dance upon the shredded viscera of his enemies in future posts?

I won $100 (on page 9)

While that and an extra 49 cents allows me to buy a double espresso with whipped cream, does it give me any leeway to start dancing on anyone's shredded viscera?
 

casa_mugrienta

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Apr 13, 2008
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So how does that pan out?

These are only mildly facetious. I'm mostly interested in how folks think that looks
I don't think anyone really knows.

I don't think comparisons to defaults in Argentina or Lebanon are valid - we have a very weird situation as the reserve currency holder.

It would be insanely wild to watch and the world would surely be thrown into a state of temporary economic chaos.

You n me would be in it together!
 
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grapedrink

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That's because this sort of stuff generally doesn't happen overnight - takes a while to dig a hole you can't climb out of.
Of course. And I don't know whether that's going to be 1-2 years or 10-20 years. Which is why I don't try to time the market.

Weren't you saying the same thing when you bought your condo at what you thought was the top of the market, how many years ago? How much equity have you made, and how much would you be saving on rent if you had to find a new place right now?
 

casa_mugrienta

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Weren't you saying the same thing when you bought your condo at what you thought was the top of the market? How much equity have you made, and how much would you be saving on rent if you had to find a new place right now?
Refer to my comments on real estate vs CPI.

I see myself in an asset bubble.

What happens once it pops is anyone's guess, looking at the data methinks nothing good.
 

Joshua2415

Tom Curren status
Jul 18, 2005
12,701
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San Clemente
I just closed escrow on my home in Capo Beach Friday for $18M :roflmao:

My neighbor texted that to me & my wife Friday afternoon. Best typo ever...if only it were true.

Still, what a whirlwind of a sale. My wife and I were thinking of listing the house for sale near the end of summer and use the proceeds to put remodel our rental down in San Clemente. We met with our agent (long time friend of my wife) on Sunday 4/3 to discuss the possibility of her just having a 'pocket listing'. The discussion quickly turned to the potential interest rate increases and supply & demand of housing market and we decided to list it. Listed on Tuesday, open house on Saturday that resulted in 3 offers from 15-20% over asking price. Accepted offer went into 25 day escrow the following Tuesday, then just closed last Friday.
 

casa_mugrienta

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Apr 13, 2008
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@casa_mugrienta Why are you so skeeert to tell me and grapedrink what the parameters are under which the armageddon hypothesis takes a dump?
There's no armageddon hypothesis coming from me.

Who knows WTF is going to happen - this is brand spankin new territory for the USofA.

Kinda exciting! (if you like economics)

My posting is basically me giving my thoughts based on data.

Without saying it, I'm begging to be refuted. I want to learn.

So far there have been no data based refutations - people just repeating "this anomalous time in economic history will stay the same, I can't explain why, but it will"