He's basing this on how home prices behave in the carnival environment of the era he grew up in.This really depends on the time-scale. Bring data or this is just your doctrine.
The data pre-80s does not agree with him.
REMINDER: THE ARENA PLATFORM, INC. has no obligation to monitor the Forums. However, THE ARENA PLATFORM, INC. reserves the right to review any materials submitted to or posted on the Forums, and remove, delete, redact or otherwise modify such materials, in its sole discretion and for any reason whatsoever, at any time and from time to time, without notice or further obligation to you. THE ARENA PLATFORM, INC. has no obligation to display or post any materials provided by you. THE ARENA PLATFORM, INC. reserves the right to disclose, at any time and from time to time, any information or materials that we deem necessary or appropriate to satisfy any applicable law, regulation, contract obligation, legal or dispute process or government request. Click on the following hyperlinks to further read the applicable Privacy Policy and Terms of Use.
He's basing this on how home prices behave in the carnival environment of the era he grew up in.This really depends on the time-scale. Bring data or this is just your doctrine.
Wew lad.the macroeconomic situation of the United States (needs to default to get a handle on things).
This is the point I've been trying to make. The last quarter century was one of massive manipulation of asset prices like housing and the advent of MMT. The recent development is the Fed basically handing housing over to huge banks.He's basing this on how home prices behave in the carnival environment of the era he grew up in.
The data pre-80s does not agree with him.
Sigh. Several pages back I posted a graph showing the median home price over time from FRED in reply to Duffy, and it's about as consistent as it gets with a noticeable yet short dip in 2008-10ish.This really depends on the time-scale. Bring data or this is just your doctrine.
Inventory is low because:The inventory is low because large banks are now manipulating the market by paying well over ask.
Sure, but we are jaded because we live in a costly market. Lots of the country has plenty of homes in the sub $300-400k market.Perhaps this can keep up indefinitely because the Fed has a money printer, it just won't continue at a price most people can afford.
Agreed. Which is even more of a reason to get your piece of the action as an arrow in your quiver.If the banks are now going to own our housing forever, then you are correct, but it won't be a country we want to live in.
I'm just providing the likely scenario under which the Fed gets control over inflation - we'd probably default.Wew lad.
Elmer set to 110%.
It's as consistent as it gets vs the CPI?Sigh. Several pages back I posted a graph showing the median home price over time from FRED in reply to Duffy, and it's about as consistent as it gets with a noticeable yet short dip in 2008-10ish.
And if they do, so what? That allows people to get back in the game and they will be right back where they were in pre-covid days in a few years, and probably ahead of the recent peak in 5-10.If I'm not mistaken housing only deviated massively from the CPI over the past 20-30 years.
Now factor in what will have to happen to interest rates to get control over inflation (hint: we're still way too low) and look at the macroeconomic situation of the United States (needs to default to get a handle on things). Values could easily take a pretty big hit.
No. It's a screenshot showing several decades and only charts mean nationwide median price.It's as consistent as it gets vs the CPI?
Did you include that part in your graph?
We're not debating the factors, we're debating their coefficients, or how large of a contribution each is making. What back-of-the-envelop math did you arrive at for each? For example, Black Rock has $10 trillion under mgmt, what percentage was used to buy SFHs x what quantity x what ASP? Now repeat for Millennial buyers. Now include population growth - the rate of which has been declining.Sigh. Several pages back I posted a graph showing the median home price over time from FRED in reply to Duffy, and it's about as consistent as it gets with a noticeable yet short dip in 2008-10ish.
Inventory is low because:
-we all need a place to live
new home construction has been below average for a decade
-supply and labor constraints makes new building prohibitively expensive and slow
-millennials are coming of baby making age, and now they want the 3/2 with a yard in the suburbs that they always despised
-institutional investment
But please- keep telling me how the Fed boogeymen and world event manipulators are more so than all of the reasons listed above
Can you give me some parameters on when I can bump this the way I bumped your Obama's Stasi enforcing a Marxist dictatorship post and we all laughed at it?I'm just providing the likely scenario under which the Fed gets control over inflation - we'd probably default.
We will face default or runaway inflation.
The above interpretation looks at this through a lens of isolated short term trends.And if they do, so what? That allows people to get back in the game and they will be right back where they were in pre-covid days in a few years, and probably ahead of the recent peak in 5-10.
You can basically blot the divergence of home prices and CPI against the Bretton Woods' agreements, the start of the CDS market, and MMT. Maybe they can keep the financial manipulation of home prices up forever, they just won't be able to find people to live in them. This is like the Highland Clearances writ huge.I didn't think so...
View attachment 129350
Posting the median home price simply going up doesn't mean much.
I didn't post that.Can you give me some parameters on when I can bump this the way I bumped your Obama's Stasi enforcing a Marxist dictatorship post and we all laughed at it?
2-3% inflation, GDP growth similar range, U5 under 8%, no default on the debt, within the next 5 years?
Sure it does. It shows it was worth more than what you paid for it, which by definition makes it a worthwhile investment. Especially since you need a place to live, or you can collect rent in addition to equity.I didn't think so...
View attachment 129350
Posting the median home price simply going up doesn't mean much.
That is a low IQ interpretation of the graph and you know better.Sure it does. It shows it was worth more than what you paid for it, which by definition makes it a worthwhile investment. Especially since you need a place to live, or you can collect rent in addition to equity.
Sigh. The housing supply issue, lack of new builds, massive institutional investment, and millennial age distribution is all well documented.We're not debating the factors, we're debating their coefficients, or how large of a contribution each is making. What back-of-the-envelop math did you arrive at for each? For example, Black Rock has $10 trillion under mgmt, what percentage was used to buy SFHs x what quantity x what ASP? Now repeat for Millennial buyers. Now include population growth - the rate of which has been declining.
"We all need a place to live" is not an argument - it's a tautology. If rents AND home prices are both skyrocketing, there's really no trade-off to doing either if wages are not keeping pace and you can't afford a downpayment.
Until you come up with these coefficients, you're just making stuff up.
Is it? How is something purchased at a lower price and sold at a higher price not a good investment?That is a low IQ interpretation of the graph and you know better.
Oh my bad that was HT.I didn't post that.