*** Official Corona Virus Thread ***

PRCD

Tom Curren status
Feb 25, 2020
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Not sure if most saw these reports over a month ago in NYC......


Large metro areas in Brazil are like NYC densities, but much more in poverty and squalid conditions.
Many living multi-generations cramped under one small roof.

These types of environments are ripe for explosive closed quarter spread world-wide.

I'm afraid international travel, particularly vacation travel, is going to be squashed for months, not just in and out of USA, but most all major 1st world nations. At least until these 3rd world nations still seeing or yet to see, spikes, get a handle on their nations. It's going to get worse in many high density 3rd world nations before it gets better in the coming months.

Last in, last out.
Mass graves? Sounds like it's time to park a carrier off the coast of NYC and bomb it into rubble.
 

Mr J

Michael Peterson status
Aug 18, 2003
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Regional Vic, Australia
Packaged vs presentation.
he did pack some punchlines, but did British academic Neil Fergusons's modelling really send the US states such as NY into an unnecessary lockdown. The whole world even? Boris Johnson's initial approach to the crisis was delayed lockdown based on behavioural science (lockdown fatigue) and herd immunity, but he was forced to change tack. UK now worst in Europe, horrendous death toll. The presenter does have a point about lockdown starting too late, that seems to be the case with UK. But NZ done really well, Aus done really well. Having said that we don't know how much lockdown has been part of it - incredibly UK did not close its international borders like us - also didn't get its testing right.

Then on to his point about COVID19 not being like polio or smallpox - does it matter? Mass graves being dug by prison labour, refrigerated trucks full of bodies, its clearly not a virus that can be treated lightly.

As for Sweden being a success with its minimal lockdown, their current deaths per million is not looking good now.

I am glad that Aus did the lockdown, border closing and large scale testing/tracing. Although it seems to have miraculously worked it has thrown a lot of people into economic strife (like just about everywhere else in the world). We also don't know if it will succeed in the long run and maybe those countries with the awful death tolls will ultimately have a swifter exit. Personally I feel more comfortable with opening the economy in our situation rather than say the UK situation of a high daily death toll, and if hypothetically there had been a referendum on the subject I could not vote for the cull the population into a corona resistant super race model - I'd rather those tough decisions are left to our administrators.

Anyway fingers crossed for everywhere and lets hope for a vaccine.
 
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Peter1

Nep status
Jul 29, 2005
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i think it's pretty incontrovertible that lockdowns work, not just for this pandemic but all throughout history. You can debate the economic/societal costs, but from a purely epidemiological POV, they are successful, even if done semi-half-assed. Here in France the number of new cases is down to a few hundred a day and the ERs are able to breathe again. We had a very harsh lockdown for two months, and it sucked as much as you would expect, but we (fingers crossed) seem to have turned a corner.

The government said in mid-March that the peak infection rate would be on April 6 if everyone followed the rules and damned if they weren't right. Statisticians are pretty good at this stuff. I'm sure the tinfoil hats among us would say they gamed the figures, but to what end? Economic life ground to a halt, government debt soared, schools closed etc...

France has been very thorough in reporting deaths, so while the percapita/total rate might seem high, the government isn't hiding anything.
 

Bohter

Michael Peterson status
Mar 7, 2006
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i think it's pretty incontrovertible that lockdowns work, not just for this pandemic but all throughout history. You can debate the economic/societal costs, but from a purely epidemiological POV, they are successful, even if done semi-half-assed. Here in France the number of new cases is down to a few hundred a day and the ERs are able to breathe again. We had a very harsh lockdown for two months, and it sucked as much as you would expect, but we (fingers crossed) seem to have turned a corner.

The government said in mid-March that the peak infection rate would be on April 6 if everyone followed the rules and damned if they weren't right. Statisticians are pretty good at this stuff. I'm sure the tinfoil hats among us would say they gamed the figures, but to what end? Economic life ground to a halt, government debt soared, schools closed etc...

France has been very thorough in reporting deaths, so while the percapita/total rate might seem high, the government isn't hiding anything.
Might seem like a good correlation.....but where's your proof of root cause....that the lockdowns are responsible for any downward trend. Any chance it could be something else? Like the end of flu season? Can you explain why folks in complete lockdown for months still got sick?
 

Bohter

Michael Peterson status
Mar 7, 2006
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Well packaged presentation of what Bill and Melinda do and say.......most interesting part starts at like 56 minutes....
His correlation of general health to the number of kids you want to have is an interesting angle....to increase vaccinations (= health?)....so you'll have fewer kids....
His work in India? Holy cow!

Here's James Corbett.....the guy who put together the Bill Gates expose above.....being interviewed by RFB....about it....
 
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afoaf

Duke status
Jun 25, 2008
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Might seem like a good correlation.....but where's your proof of root cause....that the lockdowns are responsible for any downward trend. Any chance it could be something else? Like the end of flu season? Can you explain why folks in complete lockdown for months still got sick?
do you believe in seasons? I forget....

the entire northern hemisphere is at "the end of flu season" but some countries have
rising case counts (no lockdown) and some have falling case counts (yes lockdown)
 

Bohter

Michael Peterson status
Mar 7, 2006
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do you believe in seasons? I forget....

the entire northern hemisphere is at "the end of flu season" but some countries have
rising case counts (no lockdown) and some have falling case counts (yes lockdown)
Flu season.....because the weather and humans are cyclical.....
And the more you test the more cases you will have to report....pretty simple logic.
And....the PCR test is not CV-19 specific....it looks for any RNA presence.....which can be there for many reasons.
So what was your point again?
 

afoaf

Duke status
Jun 25, 2008
49,654
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Flu season.....because the weather and humans are cyclical.....
And the more you test the more cases you will have to report....pretty simple logic.
And....the PCR test is not CV-19 specific....it looks for any RNA presence.....which can be there for many reasons.
So what was your point again?
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