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**** Official Bali Pro (Keramas) Thread ****
- Thread starter Boneroni
- Start date
Damn what did I miss? Stocked to see chloe get through
Oh and since they overscore backside surfing I hope callihan gets justice. Damn that guy really fvcking rips.
Oh and since they overscore backside surfing I hope callihan gets justice. Damn that guy really fvcking rips.
no one notice the amount of crap floating in the water just outside the lineup?
I thought is was wildlife at first and realized it garbage
Saw ace pickup some garbage walking up the beach after his heat
he looked disgusted
Tourism possibly surfer tourism and primitive trash processing has ruined the indo beaches.
I thought is was wildlife at first and realized it garbage
Saw ace pickup some garbage walking up the beach after his heat
he looked disgusted
Tourism possibly surfer tourism and primitive trash processing has ruined the indo beaches.
Funny - i was going to mention WSL is doing a great job of hiding all the garbage that floats up on that beach every a.m.oneula said:no one notice the amount of crap floating in the water just outside the lineup?
I thought is was wildlife at first and realized it garbage
Saw ace pickup some garbage walking up the beach after his heat
he looked disgusted
Tourism possibly surfer tourism and primitive trash processing has ruined the indo beaches.
Keramas is one of the funnest waves Ive ever surfed. Dont let its playfulness fool you though, theres a little punch, and its pretty shallow and sharp.
Try go on a beach clean up Kahuku side... the entire beach gets littered in plastic when the winds are strong. Dig 6 inches in the sand and you'll find the same plastic garbage.
Find all kinds of trash floating when paddling in/out from Kewalos too.
Find all kinds of trash floating when paddling in/out from Kewalos too.
Scientist have found microplastics in Mariana's Trench. So it's everywhere.
At least 40% of it comes from the fishing industry.
At least 40% of it comes from the fishing industry.
Judges Swing on Nationality? And is Priority Important?
It's not what you think! Nick Carroll dives into the stats.
Photo: Sloane/WSL
Nick Carroll
Nick Carroll
May 19th, 2019. Updated about 14 hours ago.
“You can’t script this.” It’s been one of the World Surf League’s catchphrases since 2015. But lately it seems to have fallen out of favor, and I have wondered from time to time if this is because of the vast field of free kicks it’s offered to the more cynical members of the fan base. The tour is regularly explained away by such fans as being totally set up, scripted all the way home from the start. Here’s a couple of 2019 specials I’ve read so far:
— Gabriel Medina is being set up as a world champ to cash in on the Brazilian economy.
— John John Florence is being set up as a world champ because he is white. (A Brazilian fan recently took to calling him “Judge Judge”.)
These scripts can’t exist simultaneously, but everyone’s in on it, apparently.
Read More: The Differential — A Super Stat Driven Preview of the WCT’s Top Guns
I dunno, it seems to me that tour conspiracy theories are up there with scary government chem trails altering our minds. Jet aircraft leave condensation trails thanks to the temperature variation between their exhausts and the surrounding air mass. The Brazilian economy is shot to bits right now, and has been for most of Gabriel’s title time. And JJF’s skin color is as naught compared with his prior scoring record, completely predictable return from injury, and ensuing rapid success.
But then again, as someone else once said, just because you’re paranoid doesn’t mean they’re not out to get ya. So I decided to test one of the most common: that judges back their own.
Yep, there are judges of varying nationality, and yep they judge surfers of the same nationality all the time. If they are swinging on nationality, there’s a sure way of finding out: compare the wave scores being given by individual judges to the overall wave scores. Are they going high, going low, or are they right on the money?
alt
Judge’s eye view. Photo: Ed Sloane
If you do what I foolishly did and work through the whole Bells men’s event’s one-on-one heats, and do the comparisons, here’s what you come up with:
USA judges appear to skew high. It’s not a big sample, because only one sitting judge at any time was an American. But that one judge went high on 62.5% of scoring waves ridden by an American surfer (including Hawaiians btw). The judge went low on all the rest, and never went neutral.
Australian judges appear to skew low. There were often two Australian judges on the Bells panel at a time. But if you reckon that might help Australian surfers, you’d be a bit wrong. At Bells the Aussie judges went low on 50% of the scoring waves ridden by Aussies, hit the average 15.4% of the time, and went high on only 34.6%. For an Aussie surfer at Bells, being judged by your home guy was an actual disadvantage.
Brazilian judges are on it. As with the Aussies, the Bells panel frequently featured two Brazilian judges. And they were impressively fair. On Brazilian surfers they went up 45%, down 42%, and hit the average 12% of the time.
I have no idea if this is a pattern. (It is only one event, after all, and more data is needed to help prove/disprove any theory.) I am pretty sure that whatever we might dream up about that panel, they have already dreamed it up a thousand times and adjusted for it. They are not dummies.
But just to be sure, I’m gonna test this again in Saquerema. Because it never hurts to be sure.
Read More Articles by Nick Carroll
——-
One of the choices faced by professional surfers during heats, especially one-on-one heats, is Sit or Move.
It’s a choice made more complex by the priority thing. Supposedly it’s the ace card, but…What do you do with priority? Do you Sit: use it to wait patiently and catch the wave of your dreams, even if that takes 15 minutes? Or do you Move: look for a score and drag your opponent around the lineup in the process?
alt
Jordy Smith and Gabriel Medina. Photo: Cestari/WSL
Well who knows, every heat is different, just like every surf is different. But here’s something to think about when you’re watching surfers make that choice.
A coupla years back the WSL built a priority time clock into their heat stat presentation. This was only available if you were on site and watching the score screen viewed by commentators, pros and a handful of others.
If you watched that clock and took notes every now and then (and I did this for two events running, Snapper and Bells), what you noticed was super counter-intuitive: in 70% of heats, the surfer who held priority the most, LOST the heat. Every now and then, Sitting pays off. But only 30% of the time at most. Put that together with the fact that most heats are won by whoever’s leading at halfway, and you’ve got a compelling case for Move.
It's not what you think! Nick Carroll dives into the stats.
Photo: Sloane/WSL
Nick Carroll
Nick Carroll
May 19th, 2019. Updated about 14 hours ago.
“You can’t script this.” It’s been one of the World Surf League’s catchphrases since 2015. But lately it seems to have fallen out of favor, and I have wondered from time to time if this is because of the vast field of free kicks it’s offered to the more cynical members of the fan base. The tour is regularly explained away by such fans as being totally set up, scripted all the way home from the start. Here’s a couple of 2019 specials I’ve read so far:
— Gabriel Medina is being set up as a world champ to cash in on the Brazilian economy.
— John John Florence is being set up as a world champ because he is white. (A Brazilian fan recently took to calling him “Judge Judge”.)
These scripts can’t exist simultaneously, but everyone’s in on it, apparently.
Read More: The Differential — A Super Stat Driven Preview of the WCT’s Top Guns
I dunno, it seems to me that tour conspiracy theories are up there with scary government chem trails altering our minds. Jet aircraft leave condensation trails thanks to the temperature variation between their exhausts and the surrounding air mass. The Brazilian economy is shot to bits right now, and has been for most of Gabriel’s title time. And JJF’s skin color is as naught compared with his prior scoring record, completely predictable return from injury, and ensuing rapid success.
But then again, as someone else once said, just because you’re paranoid doesn’t mean they’re not out to get ya. So I decided to test one of the most common: that judges back their own.
Yep, there are judges of varying nationality, and yep they judge surfers of the same nationality all the time. If they are swinging on nationality, there’s a sure way of finding out: compare the wave scores being given by individual judges to the overall wave scores. Are they going high, going low, or are they right on the money?
alt
Judge’s eye view. Photo: Ed Sloane
If you do what I foolishly did and work through the whole Bells men’s event’s one-on-one heats, and do the comparisons, here’s what you come up with:
USA judges appear to skew high. It’s not a big sample, because only one sitting judge at any time was an American. But that one judge went high on 62.5% of scoring waves ridden by an American surfer (including Hawaiians btw). The judge went low on all the rest, and never went neutral.
Australian judges appear to skew low. There were often two Australian judges on the Bells panel at a time. But if you reckon that might help Australian surfers, you’d be a bit wrong. At Bells the Aussie judges went low on 50% of the scoring waves ridden by Aussies, hit the average 15.4% of the time, and went high on only 34.6%. For an Aussie surfer at Bells, being judged by your home guy was an actual disadvantage.
Brazilian judges are on it. As with the Aussies, the Bells panel frequently featured two Brazilian judges. And they were impressively fair. On Brazilian surfers they went up 45%, down 42%, and hit the average 12% of the time.
I have no idea if this is a pattern. (It is only one event, after all, and more data is needed to help prove/disprove any theory.) I am pretty sure that whatever we might dream up about that panel, they have already dreamed it up a thousand times and adjusted for it. They are not dummies.
But just to be sure, I’m gonna test this again in Saquerema. Because it never hurts to be sure.
Read More Articles by Nick Carroll
——-
One of the choices faced by professional surfers during heats, especially one-on-one heats, is Sit or Move.
It’s a choice made more complex by the priority thing. Supposedly it’s the ace card, but…What do you do with priority? Do you Sit: use it to wait patiently and catch the wave of your dreams, even if that takes 15 minutes? Or do you Move: look for a score and drag your opponent around the lineup in the process?
alt
Jordy Smith and Gabriel Medina. Photo: Cestari/WSL
Well who knows, every heat is different, just like every surf is different. But here’s something to think about when you’re watching surfers make that choice.
A coupla years back the WSL built a priority time clock into their heat stat presentation. This was only available if you were on site and watching the score screen viewed by commentators, pros and a handful of others.
If you watched that clock and took notes every now and then (and I did this for two events running, Snapper and Bells), what you noticed was super counter-intuitive: in 70% of heats, the surfer who held priority the most, LOST the heat. Every now and then, Sitting pays off. But only 30% of the time at most. Put that together with the fact that most heats are won by whoever’s leading at halfway, and you’ve got a compelling case for Move.
