***Official 2020 Tropical Weather Thread***

Mr Doof

Duke status
Jan 23, 2002
24,860
7,759
113
San Francisco, CA
^ - Been watching the predictive models for this on. Eye looks to pass to the west of the tip...we'll see how/if that changes.

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Surfdog

Duke status
Apr 22, 2001
21,768
1,988
113
South coast OR
Surf already picking up in Cabo, but looks a bit warbled/chunky. Supposed to be 15-20 ft tomorrow.

They may get tropical storm force winds if it slides close enough.

Hopefully won't make a rightward shift from projected track in the next day or 2? It made a slight jog more northward the last 6 hrs. If that more northerly jog continues, eye region could get much closer to Cabo than current track is showing.

Should be peaking in intensity now or next 12 hrs max. She's a bad whamma-jamma (Cat 4), but cooler waters are ahead in her path, and we'll be lucky if she sustains hurricane strength by the time she hits So Cal's extreme SSE window. Water temps just west of Cabo are still pretty cool to sustain full hurricane strengths.

But if she makes a continued path shift more north, Cabo gonna be in her sights. May just be a warble in the path, which in not unusual in stronger hurricanes, and continue back on a general NW path as forecast now. We'll see in next 24 hrs.
 
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ElOgro

Duke status
Dec 3, 2010
31,867
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C7E3F166-6A72-4CEE-82E2-57D4159F5271.png
There’s gonna be some places that light up with this. I remember waiting/hoping in Ensenada for these in the early 70’s when it was luck, patience, and a pay by the week bar tab at Husongs.
 
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Surfdog

Duke status
Apr 22, 2001
21,768
1,988
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South coast OR
Whoa. Just noticed with that latest location, movement changed to straight north in last 3 or so hours (noticed earlier on sat loops too)

Hopefully, it's just a jog in the recent NNW path and not a shift to N?

The longer it stays headed straight N, the closer the eye will be to Cabo as it nears.

Luckily, cooler waters are already weakening her dramatically from Cat 4 peak yesterday this time.
Winds are dropping a bit more than expected to just barely Cat 1 now, so may weaken to tropical storm strength by time eye nears Cabo at closest point.

If it weakens further, faster before entering So Cal extreme SSE window, we may not see much up here. The previous tracks from a day or 2 ago had her well into the So Cal window as still a solid hurricane. But now, with the more north track, it's pulled well east of the SSE window edge quite a bit, and will need a big NW to WNW jog to get even close to it in the next day or 2. By then, she may be a weakened trop storm.

Current track is forecast for it to make it up the Baja coast pretty far intact as trop storm, but colder waters can take a quick toll and weaken storms faster like Elida did.

Will be interesting to see how far up the coast she makes it as trop storm. We will likely get blow off clouds from her in So Cal this coming weekend.
 

Aruka

Tom Curren status
Feb 23, 2010
11,990
22,531
113
PNW
My buddy is in cabo. Says they've gotten quite a bit of rain. Arroyos are flooding and many people taking shelter in schools. Not great in covid times. Swell went from head high to 20 foot in a hurry. A 15 year old girl surfer from the states got swept out and a local surfer went in to save her, they both died. I haven't been able to find any report of that online to confirm the story but my friend isn't usually a bullsh1tter. Last text I got from him said the winds were starting to pick up pretty heavy. No response this morning.
 

ElOgro

Duke status
Dec 3, 2010
31,867
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No electricity in a large area means the cell towers are offline. Maybe this afternoon.
 

Geopac

Billy Hamilton status
Jul 28, 2003
1,366
584
113
Ballast Point
Another blown forecast by NHC, exact same situation unfolded during Odile. Was lucky to get the last flight out yesterday (Wednesday) before the airport ceased operations. Tuesday was waist high at first light, 15ft by 3pm. Every East Cape point was overloaded with bombing outside washthroughs. Drove halfway to La Paz, scored an epic arvo session at a magical sand headland at head high reeling for 300 yards. Resembled my favorite wave in Oaxaca. Drank many cervezas on the drive back South dodging washouts and cattle in the dark. Stocked!
 
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Mr Doof

Duke status
Jan 23, 2002
24,860
7,759
113
San Francisco, CA
Anyone surf near Brunswick, Georgia? St Simmons Island to be precise.

A friend is there visiting wife's parents and asked if I wanted to fly out and stay for a while since they have the room and if I wanted to escape the fog and the urban life.

Worth it to schlep a board across the country or do better to see what I can scrounge up there?
 

ElOgro

Duke status
Dec 3, 2010
31,867
11,809
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Anyone surf near Brunswick, Georgia? St Simmons Island to be precise.

A friend is there visiting wife's parents and asked if I wanted to fly out and stay for a while since they have the room and if I wanted to escape the fog and the urban life.

Worth it to schlep a board across the country or do better to see what I can scrounge up there?
No surf. I have a buddy that lives on the island. He can hook you up with a board on the off chance that it’s over 1ft. Lemme know.
 

Sharkbiscuit

Duke status
Aug 6, 2003
26,270
19,097
113
Jacksonville Beach
There's no surf if you live in coastal Guerrero but if you don't have 85 degree bath water out your front door and you can sport a Ben Gravy mindset, I promise something will be "fully nuking" on the incoming Laura swell. But in general Georgia is considered the worst Atlantic state for surf unless you include Connecticut.

Big tide swings so it will be tide dependent. Armpits are generally considered to benefit from an incoming tide in terms of swell pulsing, whether you are trying to get something to line up on a shoal off dead low, or trying to get an inside sand ledge to flood and have windswell peaks, incoming is considered good juju.

Mullet run will be getting started; you might do better with a fishing pole as there are a shitload of inlets and cuts and places for fish to ambush bait. Consider shitty sneakers if you wade back into the grassy/muddy zones where oysters pop up. Mind stingrays and sharks and be suspicious of any fresh water. Moving logs are bad logs.

I can promise you St. Simon's will cure any cold/fog/city problems. A slight heat haze, maybe. Shrimp and grits instead of avo toast.

If you want a change of scenery, see some proper Low Country, knowingly play "smelled like Coastal Georgia at low tide", some lightning storms, probably good sunsets over the inlet/marsh if yours are fogged, sunrises, slow it down and stretch it out, yeah.
 

ElOgro

Duke status
Dec 3, 2010
31,867
11,809
113
There's no surf if you live in coastal Guerrero but if you don't have 85 degree bath water out your front door and you can sport a Ben Gravy mindset, I promise something will be "fully nuking" on the incoming Laura swell. But in general Georgia is considered the worst Atlantic state for surf unless you include Connecticut.

Big tide swings so it will be tide dependent. Armpits are generally considered to benefit from an incoming tide in terms of swell pulsing, whether you are trying to get something to line up on a shoal off dead low, or trying to get an inside sand ledge to flood and have windswell peaks, incoming is considered good juju.

Mullet run will be getting started; you might do better with a fishing pole as there are a shitload of inlets and cuts and places for fish to ambush bait. Consider shitty sneakers if you wade back into the grassy/muddy zones where oysters pop up. Mind stingrays and sharks and be suspicious of any fresh water. Moving logs are bad logs.

I can promise you St. Simon's will cure any cold/fog/city problems. A slight heat haze, maybe. Shrimp and grits instead of avo toast.

If you want a change of scenery, see some proper Low Country, knowingly play "smelled like Coastal Georgia at low tide", some lightning storms, probably good sunsets over the inlet/marsh if yours are fogged, sunrises, slow it down and stretch it out, yeah.
Looks like Mr. Doof is safe from Laura
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Hey Doof - Biloxi should be pumping midweek.