***Official 2020 Tropical Weather Thread***

TeamScam

Miki Dora status
Jan 14, 2002
5,485
1,119
113
Mid-Atlantic
Probably not yet; if it follows the center of the cone, you're only getting what's already been sent, plus another day between PR and the Bahamas.

We all really need this thing to veer right a bit.
Here's hoping. So many people off of work/work from home if there is a classic storm or easy to see swell there will be 988767789332 people here too. At least it's not really crowded yet.
I like it when the storm is still wayyy out in the ocean or near the islands for days and the swells start coming in two days before everyone thinks it'll be good.
A good swell often regulates the crowd enough though, here's hoping.
 

Sharkbiscuit

Duke status
Aug 6, 2003
26,253
19,081
113
Jacksonville Beach
Yeah track changes in the night look good, although now I'm starting to worry it might intensify and slap my peeps along the Treasure Coast. Still need it to jog out East a bit more.

Here's hoping. So many people off of work/work from home if there is a classic storm or easy to see swell there will be 988767789332 people here too. At least it's not really crowded yet.
I like it when the storm is still wayyy out in the ocean or near the islands for days and the swells start coming in two days before everyone thinks it'll be good.
A good swell often regulates the crowd enough though, here's hoping.
With this track it'll probably regulate everyone here for part of Sunday. Past a certain point, there's overhead waves every 6-8 seconds and the paddle is just straight abuse.
 

sr04

Gerry Lopez status
Oct 21, 2014
1,033
6
38
Southern California
I'm coming to ca for a week tomorrow. What suit am I bringing? 3/2 full or SS full? Will be in San Clemente. I've been swimming in the cool rivers of idaho for two years since the move but I'm still a little wuss when it comes to cold water. I trust the erBB to make this decision for me. Also, will southwest let me carry-on my rinsekit?
 
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sdsrfr

Phil Edwards status
Jul 13, 2020
5,856
11,262
113
San Diego
I'm coming to ca for a week tomorrow. What suit am I bringing? 3/2 full or SS full? Will be in San Clemente. I've been swimming in the cool rivers of idaho for two years since the move but I'm still a little wuss when it comes to cold water. I trust the erBB to make this decision for me. Also, will southwest let me carry-on my rinsekit?
Nobody surfing south of point conception ever needs a wetsuit according to erBB guidance.
 

bird.LA

Rabbitt Bartholomew status
Jul 14, 2002
8,110
1,786
113
LA
I'll be arriving on the Outer Banks Sunday evening... does that mean I'm arriving just in time to miss the swell and to take the hurricane on the head?
 
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Sharkbiscuit

Duke status
Aug 6, 2003
26,253
19,081
113
Jacksonville Beach
I'll be arriving on the Outer Banks Sunday evening... does that mean I'm arriving just in time to miss the swell and to take the hurricane on the head?
They don't know if this storm is hitting the Banks or not yet. At a glance, this is a Shackleford swell with Nag's Head winds. I'd check the south side, eg northeast/north facing bit, of unarmored, or lightly armored inlets, looking for something that will take a groundswell and enjoys SSW/SW winds.

Generally, after the hurricane is North of you is the best. Lighthouse isn't horny for SSE/S/SSW. You want that thing to peel off and go out to sea, and you want that period to shorten up. There are no canyons. If you think El Porto is closed out on groundswells, you have another thing coming when you see East Coast beachbreak with it.

If you do wind up in a groundswell + offshore winds situation, ask for longboard spots. Spots with deep sandbars, or are tide-flooded. The wave will be softer in terms of dumping top to bottom, but it will probably have a better chance to hold a line and do turns.

For Hatteras, you want a depression about 250 miles off the Delmarva peninsula, or a cutoff low, somewhere between the Chesapeake and Lawn Guy Land. Short period + offshores. One and dones. Nameless gales out by Bermuda with local frontal passage serving offshores.

If that hurricane is going to be a Cat 2 on the head, my guess is, you will get told to f--k off at a bridge, it will eat a road or three, and you'll be surfing Va Beach with 873410497612364982316442381 people.
 
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Sharkbiscuit

Duke status
Aug 6, 2003
26,253
19,081
113
Jacksonville Beach
Swell on Tuna Town buoy. Not sure if I will try to surf or fish/shoot photos this evening. It could be 9847392734987214 people and some waist high forerunner closeouts.

 

Sharkbiscuit

Duke status
Aug 6, 2003
26,253
19,081
113
Jacksonville Beach
SS Full in 60F water.

nice!
Your water temps are weird. I am seeing 66 in Santa Monica, which SS full would be more than enough for unless it was snowing, and looking at O'side nearshore, it went from 70 at 8pm last night to 60 around dawn.

That's nuts. That's from trunks, and maybe a top if it's cold out, to borderline booties. Nuts.
 

sdsrfr

Phil Edwards status
Jul 13, 2020
5,856
11,262
113
San Diego
Your water temps are weird. I am seeing 66 in Santa Monica, which SS full would be more than enough for unless it was snowing, and looking at O'side nearshore, it went from 70 at 8pm last night to 60 around dawn.

That's nuts. That's from trunks, and maybe a top if it's cold out, to borderline booties. Nuts.
Here you go for the source.

never underestimate the complexities of the socal bight!
 
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bird.LA

Rabbitt Bartholomew status
Jul 14, 2002
8,110
1,786
113
LA
They don't know if this storm is hitting the Banks or not yet. At a glance, this is a Shackleford swell with Nag's Head winds. I'd check the south side, eg northeast/north facing bit, of unarmored, or lightly armored inlets, looking for something that will take a groundswell and enjoys SSW/SW winds.

Generally, after the hurricane is North of you is the best. Lighthouse isn't horny for SSE/S/SSW. You want that thing to peel off and go out to sea, and you want that period to shorten up. There are no canyons. If you think El Porto is closed out on groundswells, you have another thing coming when you see East Coast beachbreak with it.

If you do wind up in a groundswell + offshore winds situation, ask for longboard spots. Spots with deep sandbars, or are tide-flooded. The wave will be softer in terms of dumping top to bottom, but it will probably have a better chance to hold a line and do turns.

For Hatteras, you want a depression about 250 miles off the Delmarva peninsula, or a cutoff low, somewhere between the Chesapeake and Lawn Guy Land. Short period + offshores. One and dones. Nameless gales out by Bermuda with local frontal passage serving offshores.

If that hurricane is going to be a Cat 2 on the head, my guess is, you will get told to f--k off at a bridge, it will eat a road or three, and you'll be surfing Va Beach with 873410497612364982316442381 people.
Appreciate the intel :shaka:

If I get the fk off at the bridge situation, I'll prob motor north and track this swell up in the Jerzee area/visit fam up that way. Either way, the forecast looks more promising than what LA has been delivering over the past few weeks.
 

TangTonic

Nep status
Feb 24, 2011
775
626
93
Hawaii

@ tangtonic. Gonzalo heading your way??
Hey JBErry,

Gonzalo was a bust Isias which was just a depression as it passed by was super fun! Had a sick body whomp chop sesion with my kid on the south shore, glassy and overhead waves on the north shore in the evening, and yesterday was even bigger than the day before. Over now but plenty tradeswell still in the water.
 
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Sharkbiscuit

Duke status
Aug 6, 2003
26,253
19,081
113
Jacksonville Beach
Appreciate the intel :shaka:

If I get the fk off at the bridge situation, I'll prob motor north and track this swell up in the Jerzee area/visit fam up that way. Either way, the forecast looks more promising than what LA has been delivering over the past few weeks.
Good luck, and implore your preferred dieties to bump this sumbeach East.

These ones that crawl up the coast, we all get the pain in the ass, and none of us get the good goods.

The ones 200+ miles offshore, if it's daylight when the grunt is there, the mix is there, and the wind is offshore, it can be magic.

Also, New Jersey in the summertime can be new levels of pain in the ass. Illegal in places to change into your wetsuit outdoors, even respectfully, illegal to surf at some beaches, have to buy a beach tag at some beaches, have XYZ....

Ditto farther North. You might see some hamlet in Maine on a map that looks glorious. You get there, and you find out that only residents of Lobsterceisterwichport can park in the same zip code as the beach June 1 - Aug 31.
 
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Subway

Administrator
Staff member
Dec 31, 2008
13,496
10,104
113
LBNY
Yeah jersey is tough to park/surf/deal with during the summer for the out of town surf strike. Seems like every town has its permit policies. Although even LBNY is tough this summer cause of rona. no parking rules per se, but with 80% of people still just working from home, there just ain’t a lot of spots.