***Official 2020 Tropical Weather Thread***

ElOgro

Duke status
Dec 3, 2010
26,650
6,832
113
It’s that time of year again. It’s been a strange spring for us, normally any time after mid April it’s HAF, this is the first time in the last 25 years that I can remember sleeping without a fan in the end of May.

Anyway

F82AE53A-7802-4FF5-8311-952FA404C371.jpeg
Early season. We need two more weeks for it to dry up enough to get a backhoe in to enlarge the lagoon, doesn’t look like it’s gonna happen.

Also looks like the monster swell FnR is sending us from Nica is gonna be a mess.

Stay tuned...
 

MANdingo

Legend (inyourownmind)
Sep 18, 2009
428
3
18
Mexico
Same here. We're still getting down to the mid 60s at night. Another thing I have never seen are the Primaveras and Rosa Moradas blooming in May. It´s usually feb/mar for us. Water temp is 79°. Me likey!
 

Mr Doof

Duke status
Jan 23, 2002
23,086
5,179
113
San Francisco, CA
Am wondering if the decrease in particulate from the industrialized nations due to the pandemic shutdown is having some weather impact.
 

gbg

Michael Peterson status
Jan 22, 2006
2,854
1,955
113
El Ogro, you said not using a fan?

I can imagine u have been down there so long you have adjusted, but damn I can't imagine sleeping without AC.
 

ElOgro

Duke status
Dec 3, 2010
26,650
6,832
113
El Ogro, you said not using a fan?

I can imagine u have been down there so long you have adjusted, but damn I can't imagine sleeping without AC.
Nobody gets used to HAF level. When it’s really hot we sleep in hammocks.
 

Surfdog

Duke status
Apr 22, 2001
21,361
1,704
113
South coast OR
That’s above my pay grade but surfdawg should be able address your question.
I have no real idea if the world wide reduction in particulates and more importantly to others, CO2 emissions, will have any weather pattern effects. Might create more cloud formation, might reduce it? Soot levels should be reduced, and that should help the Arctic ice this summer, maybe? So maybe less melt-off, but maybe more?

I don't think the reduction effects would show up immediately so much, anyway. It's like trying to turn a huge supertanker around. It will take a while and by the time it does, we may be back to near typical emission/particulate levels again. So whatever changes that do happen, would be a blip or hiccup, possibly.

Maybe if this lasted for many months, or well into next year, we might see something, globally. But effects on actual storms or activity levels? Crap shoot IMO.

We're trending towards a possible solid La Nina later this summer, into winter. So, if anything this might either enhance it, or who knows, possibly weaken it. It's all a guess at this point. I doubt anyone knows.

So, this summers EPac Hurricane season may be tough for So Cal, but maybe more landfalls in tropical Mexico. We had quite a drop in Nino3.4 and 1.2 region temps in May. A little bounce back the last week or so, but trend is looking to stay well into La Nina ranges. May be late in summer before So Cal gets a shot at any making it into the window. S. Baja and mainland Mex will be the call more than anything.

So Hemi season looks like it could be decent though. So far, a few decent starter swells. Maybe a classic big one this year (2x-3x overhead), if we're lucky?
 

gbg

Michael Peterson status
Jan 22, 2006
2,854
1,955
113
September and October will be a good time to be on the east coast.
 

Sharkbiscuit

Duke status
Aug 6, 2003
20,156
11,807
113
Jacksonville Beach
Anyone on the fence about going to El Salvador for the 4th of July, I'd charge it. I've heard very, very good words about the status of things after sediment vomit. They say it likes a swell or two to mellow out the tree debris. I would not be surprised if some of your favorite cobblestone soul zones turn into spinning throaters.
 

Surfdog

Duke status
Apr 22, 2001
21,361
1,704
113
South coast OR
Could be an "interesting" summer on the E Coast and Gulf of Mexico if La Nina get her ass in gear.

Be careful what you wish for though.
 

gbg

Michael Peterson status
Jan 22, 2006
2,854
1,955
113
With my likely teleworking for months, when I do go back to DE after Labor Day, Im going for 2-3 weeks.
 

TeamScam

Miki Dora status
Jan 14, 2002
4,888
704
113
Mid-Atlantic
That's about as good a plan as you could have for these parts. Right up through November, if no tropical there's always weekly frontal passages which potentially blow up. But you know that.

We've already had some tropical/subtropical action.