Inflation

oneula

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Jun 3, 2004
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you have definitely chip on your shoulder so you should let it rest
If you are in are involved in the heart of the financial services industry doing the daily grind or an economist then i'll give a listen and take to heart your first hand analysis. But these psuedo intellectual facades comes off just like that. I've heard hundreds of MBAs with book knowledge and consultants throwing around crap to see book speak when I see it.
I never said it was credit card spending, what I said is the government just pumped out billions in pandemic relief to allot folks who really didn't need it, gave rent protections to many who didn't need it and what did they do? They did like allot did here and spend it on crap, like new surfboards, new e-bikes and dabbling in the crypto market to cause that blow up. All because they viewed it as throw away money.
Sure allot saved up (deposit amounts at all FIs are the highest ever the past couple of months) and it gave them freedom from being trapped in jobs they only did out of survival and others really needed the help. But a good portion of this money went to the undeserving like all the PPP crap. And allot of it got held up because they had no real way to disburse it once it was sent to the states(like throwing money into the wind). So the states started using it for other things it really wasn't meant for.
That's allot of consumption without allot of production because of the lockdowns

If printing money was the cause for the current inflation then we should hit significant inflation in 2010 or 2011 after the 2008-2009 crisis when they started the whole Bernanke/Paulson initiative to "save the economy". It didn't help that most of tghoe guys were all ex-Goldman Sachs guys.

I'm not saying what I'm observing or being told is the absolute truth, but it is based off of real world info we're getting from people who monitor the data as a profession not as a hobby. Stores and distributors can't get stuff to keep their shelves stocked to keep up with demand. Manufacturers can't build stuff because they don't have the old base components they need especially those small electronics components so they have to switch to more expensive alternatives causing them to raise prices to offset the added expense unless they can absorb it. This battle of do I absorb or do I pass on is the on every business's decision plate right now.

I'm sorry if its hard to understand the impact of maintaining and always having to increase "shareholder" value quarter after quarter but I've seen how that becomes a negative primary focus of many CEOs of publically traded companies which leads to allot of related negative consequences. Allot of companies become private again because they tire of being told what to do by outsiders who are only looking out for the return on their "investment".

Also I'm not blaming anyone
This is just another cycle we have to plow through.
We go through these economic ups and downs all the time winners become losers and losers become winners no one stays on top for ever. Just like the WCT ratings I guess.

Pretty much done with this silly argument at this point
I have more important things to worry about like someone to bury this week
 

PRCD

Kelly Slater status
Feb 25, 2020
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you have definitely chip on your shoulder so you should let it rest
You seem prone to moralizing. No, I shouldn't. This is my thread. Beat it if you can't take it.
If you are in are involved in the heart of the financial services industry doing the daily grind or an economist then i'll give a listen and take to heart your first hand analysis. But these psuedo intellectual facades comes off just like that. I've heard hundreds of MBAs with book knowledge and consultants throwing around crap to see book speak when I see it.
I have an engineering degree and no training in economics beyond high school. I've read through some books on my dad's shelf. Sorry to disappoint, but I'm not an MBA. I actually don't care at all about economics or banking at all except that I'm expected to live with the fallout of bad banking and monetary policy. In this case, it was the latter, in 2008-2009, it was the former (see below). I find both subjects - banking and economics - to be tedious. I've found that it has an interest in me.
A bunch of moralizing value judgments, to wit,

"They did like allot did here and spend it on crap, like new surfboards, new e-bikes and dabbling in the crypto market to cause that blow up. All because they viewed it as throw away money."
So the upper middle class bought a bunch of stuff with stimulus they didn't need, and this is the source of much demand-side inflation?
Sure allot saved up (deposit amounts at all FIs are the highest ever the past couple of months) and it gave them freedom from being trapped in jobs they only did out of survival and others really needed the help. But a good portion of this money went to the undeserving like all the PPP crap. And allot of it got held up because they had no real way to disburse it once it was sent to the states(like throwing money into the wind). So the states started using it for other things it really wasn't meant for.
That's allot of consumption without allot of production because of the lockdowns
So monetary stimulus does cause inflation!

If printing money was the cause for the current inflation then we should hit significant inflation in 2010 or 2011 after the 2008-2009 crisis when they started the whole Bernanke/Paulson initiative to "save the economy". It didn't help that most of tghoe guys were all ex-Goldman Sachs guys.
Everything's relative. You could still plot the money supply increase in 2008 and 2009 on a linear Y axis, and how much money was destroyed at the same time? For this year, you need to set the Y axis on a log scale.
1639622490153.png
Corresponding CPI:
1639635008837.png

Seems like they did it right in '09, not so right this year.

I'm not saying what I'm observing or being told is the absolute truth, but it is based off of real world info we're getting from people who monitor the data as a profession not as a hobby. Stores and distributors can't get stuff to keep their shelves stocked to keep up with demand. Manufacturers can't build stuff because they don't have the old base components they need especially those small electronics components so they have to switch to more expensive alternatives causing them to raise prices to offset the added expense unless they can absorb it. This battle of do I absorb or do I pass on is the on every business's decision plate right now.
"Stores?" I'm talking about the very narrow cases grocery stores and housing as components of the CPI, not the general case of all stores. I certainly think moving our manufacturing base to Zero COVID China has hurt the supply side, but I don't think we import groceries from China nor are rents dependent on China.
I'm sorry if its hard to understand the impact of maintaining and always having to increase "shareholder" value quarter after quarter but I've seen how that becomes a negative primary focus of many CEOs of publically traded companies which leads to allot of related negative consequences. Allot of companies become private again because they tire of being told what to do by outsiders who are only looking out for the return on their "investment".
I'm not sure how this relates to the two components of CPI I'm discussing.

Pretty much done with this silly argument at this point
I have more important things to worry about like someone to bury this week
Great mike drop. Clearly you have more important things to do.
 

Autoprax

Duke status
Jan 24, 2011
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When you get older you should be consuming less.

You just don't need stuff.

That is how you offset inflation.

I started moving my money out of the stoke market.
 

PRCD

Kelly Slater status
Feb 25, 2020
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TBH I don't follow East Asian women's fashion. I find those women beautiful but have a wife of my own. Can't help in this matter. Not trying to ignore a serious questoin.
 

hal9000

Duke status
Jan 30, 2016
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Urbana, Illinois
judging by the fact that every place I went xmas shopping today was either packed or the parking lot was filled to capacity.......this inflation narrative is just more media hype.
 
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grapedrink

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May 21, 2011
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judging by the fact that every place I went xmas shopping today was either packed or the parking lot was filled to capacity.......this inflation narrative is just more media hype.
What does that have to do with inflation :unsure: People still plan to buy XMas gifts.
 

grapedrink

Duke status
May 21, 2011
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Inflation isn't as bad as people are making it out to be.

And also some of you are probably going to be very disappointed at the december retail sales numbers.
I don’t give a sh!t about the price of junk. It’s grocery, gas and housing prices that hammer people the most.
 

PRCD

Kelly Slater status
Feb 25, 2020
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If much of the world doesn't have to transact in USD, those dollars have to be destroyed or they're only useful here where they would cause more inflation.

Peppermint Patty blames everyone but the government.

Looks to me like whoever created more money using the Fed's computer punched an extra zero in accidentally or put the decimal point in the wrong place (hate when that happens!), hence the enormous discontinuity seen here:
1639973714609.png
 
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PRCD

Kelly Slater status
Feb 25, 2020
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I try not to buy anything other than actual meds at CVS or Rite Aid. Their markups are absurd. Costco or buying in bulk on Amazon (if not at Costco) for the win
This is what I've been getting at. I have all these home projects I'd like to do, but I'm not going to get started when the materials are up 100% or more. But the inflation is demand-driven? I can't see how, at least for most of us.
 
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hal9000

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Jan 30, 2016
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It's weird how nobody blamed George W Bush for the inflation that occurred during hi administration. Maybe it's because everyone was too drunk on cheap money.
 

StuAzole

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Jan 22, 2016
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It's weird how nobody blamed George W Bush for the inflation that occurred during hi administration. Maybe it's because everyone was too drunk on cheap money.
It’s even more strange that people wringing their hands here haven’t once mentioned the inflationMary impact of Trump’s tariffs.