Hurricane Douglas up next for Hawaii ~ this weekend

Surfdog

Duke status
Apr 22, 2001
21,768
1,988
113
South coast OR
Wow! That little jog to the NW in the path while north of Maui yesterday made ALL the difference in its effects on Kauai's north shore. Without that jog NW of about 20 miles or so from the previous, steady WNW path, north shore Kauai may have received a nick of the hurricane force winds.

This now minimal hurricane has only a tight hurricane force wind field radius, but like a spinning top, getting right in that little radius makes all the difference in damages or no damage. Luckily it wouldn't have been for long, maybe a couple hours or at most, but sounds like bullet was dodged this time. Someone's looking out for Hawaii.:cheers:
 
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oneula

Miki Dora status
Jun 3, 2004
4,363
2,711
113
Not a good sign as this was just the third hurricane of the season and we still have to make it through November.
I think our time is coming real soon as we've been too lucky with the past two although Lane did some significant damage as a tropical storm. Douglas never lost it's strength plowing in to Hawaii if it came in as a CAT 3 or 4 it would have punched straight through with no wobble. People other than those on Kauai are getting alarm weary like they did with Covid lockdown and they aren't taking these warnings seriously especially the youngsters who didn't go through Iwa or Iniki.

Actually I'm more worried about the current COVID hurricane as we may be breaking triple digit numbers soon from zero to single digits just a month before they opened up. The general public is getting upset with the negative direction things are going and that may force a second shut down. As long as non-essential things are open people just don't care until they actually kill someone with their stupidity. Human nature is to play the odds but then cry about it afterwards. Just like bozos going out for that picture to send home just before nature slaps them down. The connectivity of the world wide web and and availability of electronic media has in turn disconnected everyone from paying attention to what's really important.. nature and the real world out there.
 
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Muscles

Michael Peterson status
Jun 1, 2013
2,596
3,597
113
California/Hawaii
No one took the hurricane seriously in my area. Everyone went to the beach to catch big east swells and did zero prep. I fear that one day we will get nailed and it will be ugly.
 
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noone999

OTF status
Sep 13, 2012
317
43
28
HI
0506 hrs. Monday
Not much rain over night and it's a bit windy, nothing too harsh from the South West now. Glad that we all skated past a potential disaster.
No new COViD cases on the Garden Island of Kauai ~ :waving:
We have 2 new Covid cases! Darn!!!!! (unless you already knew about those?)
 
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racer1

Tom Curren status
Apr 16, 2014
12,922
14,982
113
Honolulu, Hawaii
My local was 9 out of 10 for about 2 hours yesterday. Standup barrels. Then it went completely flat. Is that what East Coast surfing is like? Felt like a fleeting dream.

Just some rain at my house, light wind and a beautiful sunset.

We dodged another one. We are due to get hit though. Iniki was nearly 30 years ago.
 

Ranga

Billy Hamilton status
Dec 31, 2008
1,682
1,422
113
My local was 9 out of 10 for about 2 hours yesterday. Standup barrels. Then it went completely flat. Is that what East Coast surfing is like? Felt like a fleeting dream.

Just some rain at my house, light wind and a beautiful sunset.

We dodged another one. We are due to get hit though. Iniki was nearly 30 years ago.
yup. Most surf here is like that. Fleeting and ephemeral af. Two day swell is rare-ish
 

jamesgang

Miki Dora status
Aug 9, 2006
3,979
1,062
113
Location Location
I am always uber prepped and FO WHAT!?!?!? No just kidding, it could have been way worse, and I'd rather be ready when it does come, because nowhere's lucky forever. That said, my kids are making fun of me.

Surfed out behind my house yesterday, solid waves but got stung, saw a big shark (monk seal? I don't think so), and it took me half an hour to paddle against the current back to my house. A hundred yards from shore and it felt like a blue water experience. Very weird. But I got a good barrel.
 
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Ranga

Billy Hamilton status
Dec 31, 2008
1,682
1,422
113
I am always uber prepped and FO WHAT!?!?!? No just kidding, it could have been way worse, and I'd rather be ready when it does come, because nowhere's lucky forever. That said, my kids are making fun of me.

Surfed out behind my house yesterday, solid waves but got stung, saw a big shark (monk seal? I don't think so), and it took me half an hour to paddle against the current back to my house. A hundred yards from shore and it felt like a blue water experience. Very weird. But I got a good barrel.
When the path is sketchy and landfall is within the realm of possibility, surfing hurricane swell becomes decidedly less fun and carefree. . . I'm almost to the point where the anxiety outweighs the fun.
 

Surfdog

Duke status
Apr 22, 2001
21,768
1,988
113
South coast OR
No one took the hurricane seriously in my area. Everyone went to the beach to catch big east swells and did zero prep. I fear that one day we will get nailed and it will be ugly.
Ya, all it would've taken was for Doogy to make a more westerly jog, instead of a NW jog yesterday and Oahu/Kauai would've been dead nuts center punched with full hurricane force winds for a few hours each.

When really strong hurricanes (not Doogy by the time it got there) move at a good clip like this one was moving, they usually get these wobbles in the path like a rock skipping on a pond. Those wobbles can make all the difference to a place like Hawaii in the middle of the Pacific where all forces are still feeding the storm up until landfall, and then can re-emerge again over open water between islands if organized enough.

When they come from the near straight east like this one, the ever so slightest change in path angle can make all the difference. With a somewhat La Nina condition, luckily water temps are not late summer warm yet, and upper level winds were not favorable for re-strengthening once near Hawaii (at this very moment). When it was much further east and south of latitude 15-17, waters were quite a bit warmer and upper levels prime for quick building to Cat 4. But once out of that environment, degradation starts taking its toll.

Iniki's path was totally different (similar with Iwa). Storm skirted below islands a ways down south, but in warmer waters, so it could juice up at any moment. That sudden right turn north running straight thru the center of Kauai at Cat 4 and 5 was worse than most expected.

But ya, any solid hurricane can turn a deadly destructive beast if anywhere near a path forecast towards or around Hawaii.
Odds are usually it won't make a direct hit, but we know those odds run out, eventually.
 

teeroi

Miki Dora status
Oct 21, 2007
5,107
9,269
113
eastside oahu
I helped my dad board up the house. If it gives him a little piece of mind it was worth it. Did it last year too. Each time it’s easier. The plywood is all cut and marked for which window it covers and it’s stored on the side of the garage. To answer who ever asked what happens to the plywood.

Tried to surf Rockpiles which can get epic on East hurricane swells but it was too north. Didn’t feel like chasing surf around the Eastside. Almost was going to try the shore break. Heard some spots were epic. Wade Tokoro said the outer reef by his house was 10-12 feet and glassy just before dark. No takers.
 

racer1

Tom Curren status
Apr 16, 2014
12,922
14,982
113
Honolulu, Hawaii
I see some of the younger generation making memes and jokes online about how we never get hit and everything is overhyped. These kids don't know about Iniki or Iwa. They think every hurricane comes at us and then falls a part or there's just some flooding in prone areas.

I don't mind doing the prep work. Yeah it's a hassle, but better than trying to do it when the hurricane makes a change of direction and you're out in the wind and rain; boarding up your house and trying to trench your yard.
 

noone999

OTF status
Sep 13, 2012
317
43
28
HI
AR
No, I didn't know and thank you. Boogers! Are you getting Rain now?? Strange but not unusual I guess. I started taking my plywood down but it's dumping up here in Kilauea ~ :oops:
It's been raiing down here on and off, but quite a bit. Lots of wind, too! Weird weather this year, that's for sure! Doesn't feel like summer.
 

oneula

Miki Dora status
Jun 3, 2004
4,363
2,711
113
as expected
the weather got worse after the hurricane
than before or during