REMINDER: THE ARENA PLATFORM, INC. has no obligation to monitor the Forums. However, THE ARENA PLATFORM, INC. reserves the right to review any materials submitted to or posted on the Forums, and remove, delete, redact or otherwise modify such materials, in its sole discretion and for any reason whatsoever, at any time and from time to time, without notice or further obligation to you. THE ARENA PLATFORM, INC. has no obligation to display or post any materials provided by you. THE ARENA PLATFORM, INC. reserves the right to disclose, at any time and from time to time, any information or materials that we deem necessary or appropriate to satisfy any applicable law, regulation, contract obligation, legal or dispute process or government request. Click on the following hyperlinks to further read the applicable Privacy Policy and Terms of Use.
Huntington Beach - Massive Protest - Surfers Revolt!!!
- Thread starter Trump2020
- Start date
Revoke his gym membership...he'll pyss himself as he lies weeping in his bedSacramento now
When you posted it, I just looked at the model straight up and I stated it in my own words already. I will be the first to state that I am not a statistician although I have run similar models for environmental purposes. Now, the Stanford model is a small sample size, cherry-picked data geared towards the white/asian, female affluent, namely those who decided to show up for the Facebook ad. They even admitted that within the study within the discussion section. And like I stated, it got thrashed by others who are more versed in statistics.
And what is that saying: There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.
You have hard numbers from South Korea and like hammies stated, they were prepared for this coming down and they still had a case death rate of 2.3%. Why you want to ignore actual hard data in lieu of statistical modeling is beyond me. The numbers for the US in the CEBM link are double that.
I think it's safe to say the billionaires caring nothing of the protests transcend the political spectrum. And equally safe to say that they are the ones who actually run this country.
All the billionaires are doing is raking in the cash while laughing at the protesters spreading the virus among themselves and gradually killing each other off. So why protest in the streets, accomplishing nothing except f*cking over everyone else further when they could take the protest to them?
At Cal State, they don't know if they are going to open the school in the fall.
They need to give students the option of remote learning if they are scared. Same with at risk staff and teachers.
Or they can sign release and come to class and take their chances.
I'm an old fat male.
The Covid's favorite dish.
I'll totally take my chances.
Come get me, Covid!
Whhhhhhaaah!
Class is in session, kunts!
During this time I learned that for a writing teacher, being in class is the fun part.
This remote stuff was clerical work and grading papers.
THe worst part of the job.
They need to give students the option of remote learning if they are scared. Same with at risk staff and teachers.
Or they can sign release and come to class and take their chances.
I'm an old fat male.
The Covid's favorite dish.
I'll totally take my chances.
Come get me, Covid!
Whhhhhhaaah!
Class is in session, kunts!
During this time I learned that for a writing teacher, being in class is the fun part.
This remote stuff was clerical work and grading papers.
THe worst part of the job.
Not really. The study had some limitations, but all do. Why don't you tell us how you'd design a better one given the state-of-the-art in COVID antibody tests? How will you recruit participants? Where will you get a better test? How long will it take? How much will it cost? What sample size do you need? How soon will you have results? What priors will you use?
I was not disputing the Korean CFR. The Korean CFR is not the global IFR. You still don't seem to know the difference between the two statistics. The IFR is quite low - about the same as the seasonal flu. At least 6 data sets confirm this.
And that's pretty much all the people involved.
Ontario, Chino, etc are all white peeps?
You'll probably think my testing regime is authoritarian but you'll have to basically swoop down and test public in all sectors, rural, urban, white, black, hispanic, asian, etc., all ages. No recruitment but just grabbing people off the street and in the hospitals. And test hundreds of thousands. You are going to have biased data if you try to recruit people in because of varied motivations of those answering ads. Yeah, that costs money and probably a lot of it but if you want viable results, that's what you will have to do. And yes, you better have viable testing that passes legit QA/QC practices. If you don't have rapid turnaround (i.e. less than 30 minuts), you are going to be playing catchup on the data and always be behind. Plus, you'd probably want to quarantine those that test positive so they don't unknowingly spread it further.
Think of it like indoor air testing. You can leave Summa canisters in place for 8 and 24 hour periods to take a quick snapshot of indoor air conditions for opposite seasons and it will give you an idea or, albeit at greater expense, you can perform continuous air monitoring which will identify intrusion sources, peak times of increased air impacts, and then pinpoint the facts and properly mitigate.
The CFR is hard data. You have people who have contracted Covid and you know how many people died and how many people recovered. Until you have much more prevalent antibody testing so you can determine who has contracted Covid yet was asymptomatic, you're not going to have great IFR data.
Where is my vaccine? I'm 68. I stay at home or take my dog to the beach or other walks and occasionally go surfing. That's it. My wife goes grocery shopping.
I would normally get a flu shot and never think about the flu. Numbers of deaths wouldn't be headlining the newspapers. This is different. For me.
if you are 24 and your youth is fading away in a virus haze, I'd be in the streets too.
Oh, and now nobody is in charge. WTF!
I would normally get a flu shot and never think about the flu. Numbers of deaths wouldn't be headlining the newspapers. This is different. For me.
if you are 24 and your youth is fading away in a virus haze, I'd be in the streets too.
Oh, and now nobody is in charge. WTF!
Bingo. And in the absence of such authority, money, manpower, test quality, and time, the authors did the best they could. Would it have been better if they had done nothing?
The CDC maintains viral surveillance for cold, flu, and this. They do not test everyone. They sample. Dr. Katz explained this. In what ways do you think the current CDC viral surveillance is inadequate?
BTW, the CFR itself is subject to dispute. How many of the patients died WITH COVID versus OF COVID. That is very much in doubt right now.
Bad data can be just as bad as no data, especially when it comes to decision making. Different industries (environmental consulting) but I can't tell you how many times I have seen people acquire properties based on really shoddy investigations (bad data) or just buying it for cash to avoid dealing with lenders (no data) and then end up surprised when they have to shell out millions to clean up a property that they are now responsible for. I don't have much respect for either method of data collection as they both lead to sh*t results. "Doing your best" is a copout. Do it right or don't do it at all.
I'll have to look into the CDC viral surveillance issue but off the bat, you'll need to have actual lab testing. People with a cold/flu aren't always going to the doctor, especially if they are poor. They will just ride it out so you will have an upper income-skewed demographic. How many people who catch a cold or the flu are asymptomatic? Either way you are not getting comprehensive testing either. Plus, with flu, many people vaccinate. We are not seeing that here with Covid. A ton of unknowns.
Dying with Covid vs. of it? Is that like dying of AIDS vs. dying of complications from AIDS?
Last edited:
Do you know more about epidemiology than the study authors? You sound like you do. I certainly do not, but their data seems to agree with a lot of the other studies.
Sounds like you have a better idea how it should be run.
No. But I'll leave to you to the research.
The antibody tests have been implimented with great limitations. The information gathered from those tests should be treated with appropriate caution. However, Kento specifically is showing us something i think we're about to see a lot more of.
The standards for data that scare us are lower than the standards for data that support being less scared.
Antibody tests will be scrutinized until ever little detail is in line, or they will be disregarded.
Reported numbers of covid-19 deaths and the resulting expectation of future deaths will be taken at face value based on trustworthiness of source.
If a Stanford study says antibodies show more americans have had the virus, people want to pick it apart. If the same group releases an identical study coming to the opposite conclusion, that no one had antibodies, it would be taken as true and CNN would make it a colorful graphic.
The standards for data that scare us are lower than the standards for data that support being less scared.
Antibody tests will be scrutinized until ever little detail is in line, or they will be disregarded.
Reported numbers of covid-19 deaths and the resulting expectation of future deaths will be taken at face value based on trustworthiness of source.
If a Stanford study says antibodies show more americans have had the virus, people want to pick it apart. If the same group releases an identical study coming to the opposite conclusion, that no one had antibodies, it would be taken as true and CNN would make it a colorful graphic.
Yeah my mother in law had covid and pneumonia. Pneumonia is often lethal to bedridden dementia ridden 84 year olds who haven’t left bed in years. so many of these deaths were exactly like that. Which thing do you put on the form?
If they haven't left bed in years it's likely that their death was not imminent, until they contracted COVID.
So that's what you put on the "form", which btw is called death certificate and is issued by a doctor.
I don't but I also note that none of you have really rebutted a single thing I have said. You just appeal to authority that you even admit has massive limitations.
I do have a better idea of how it should be run. But should be and can be are two different things, aren't they? Also, note that I even said several weeks ago that our country has been sh*tting the bed hard on testing and quarantining.
And by the way regarding numbers of today:
Total cases: 1,156,217
Deaths: 67,224
Recovered: 170,201
Death rate: 28%.
I admit right now I was wrong about 80,000 by the 10th. 2,200 more deaths today and it is only midday. It will be at 80,000 by the 8th. But the death rate is continuing to decrease as it is progressing. 37% 11 days ago, 29% yesterday, 28% today. I like that CEBM site you posted. Death rate is decreasing and it just doing it in my head, yeah, we're going to asymptote pretty close to 5-6%, maybe slightly higher. We will see how it plays out.
I also think there are a lot of assholes out in Huntington that will now be bringing the Covid back to Hesperia, Corona, Riverside, etc. In this case, the sins of the children will be falling onto the parents.
Last edited:
I don’t know the specifics of the restaurant you co-own. But did the government say you couldn’t operate as a takeout or delivery operation?
So many restaurants in my area have shown great ingenuity and have adapted to the circumstances of the crisis in all kinds of ways while continuing to do business and pay their staffs. And we the local customers have been doing our best to support them by ordering takeout a few nights a week. I understand that every restaurant is unique and has different hurdles. Some just simply don’t work as takeout/delivery operations. I know a few of these that have moved on to selling unprepared food and pantry items. Have you explored these options?
Last edited:
Fixed it for you. Everything Covid is now 100% politicized.