How’s the stock market?

Autoprax

Duke status
Jan 24, 2011
71,232
25,363
113
63
Vagina Point
honestly considering porting my IRA to cash and sitting on it for 3 months

I think these clowns are going to crash the boat and I want to be ready to buy

where are your collective heads at in the macro on the next 3-6 months?
I had this thought too.

But I don;'t know nothing,.
 
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r32

Administrator
Staff member
Apr 1, 2005
19,069
11,744
113
Cambria
Can you turn $45k sitting in cash into $129k for me in that amount of time?

I researched one of the expert Join My Newsletter spam ads about a public company merger with a big company. I found out I was incorrect after the purchase, but purchased BDCC for $0.855 per share on July 1. It's at $3.01 today. 242+% in six months!
Nicely done!

Probably yes, but not without a lot of risk, of course. Problem above 50k is scalability. I play mostly low/mid cap stocks, with occasional big play on stocks like NVDA, TSLA, etc.

But the low caps I don't risk much. Maybe $10k at the most on a trade, but most often my position sizes are between $2-5k which usually yields anywhere between $200-1k profit per trade.

Most trades I'm in/out within the day. Sometimes I'll swing trade a bigger play though, and hold for a 1-2 weeks, or longer.

Sometimes I have time to add a trade on here, and I will if I'm very high confidence on it. The problem is you guys probably can't watch the chart all day, nor watch for my posts here on when to exit. So copy trading someone off a forum is difficult at best.

I'll post the next solid play I find and my position sizes.
 

Mr Doof

Duke status
Jan 23, 2002
25,803
9,377
113
San Francisco, CA
honestly considering porting my IRA to cash and sitting on it for 3 months

I think these clowns are going to crash the boat and I want to be ready to buy

where are your collective heads at in the macro on the next 3-6 months?

If you got lots of time, let it ride.

If you are well diversified already, let it ride.

If you don't have some % in cash already, reallocate ASAP so that you do have some.

If you are averse to risk and worry in the day time hours over your $ in the market, go 75% cash and let rest of well-diversified holding ride, then after 3-6 months, start up with the DCA back in.

If you are feeling like you can't climb the wall of worry much longer without sleep, go to cash now, wait your 3-6 months, then DCA back in. It could be the peace of mind you need by locking in gains now.

If you have FOMO on potential gains by selling all now and going all to cash, which is worse: the FOMO or lack of sleep? Once you nail that down, go some % contrarian (difficult to do) and some % what you think is best (easy to do), and always have some % cash because, well, this is what pretty much every bit of financial material I have ever read says to do.

In any case, all the above is really just starting points to work out for yourself.

What worked for me was DCA (dollar cost averaging) into the 401k over time. The money going in from the top of the DOT.COM bust was dead water through 2008 and all I could do was say, "I don't need it till I am 65, I can recover." Seeing friends stop contributing and spending their money on stuff invoked some sense of missing out on my part, but when it turned around, and they...well, who cares. My point is that the 8 yrs of feeding the beast and feeling like I was wiping my ass with $100 bills went to me feeling like a genius that now could afford to wipe his ass with $100 bills.

PS
I thought Trump #1 was going to blow things up, so went to 60% cash. By 2nd yr, was all back in. Lost out on gains by reacting to fear/belief during that missing 2 yr period. But one of my relatives did the same thing when Biden was elected and he lost out on gains too; this is what makes markets, differing opinions and woe unto thee if you are pig-headed about your own well thought out ideas (for too long). For Trump #2, the 35% cash is waiting to do something, though I am closer to 65 now.....

PPS
While I love my non-stressed about money sleep, so, no one use me as THE pathway to riches. I am just trying to avoid cut rate dogfood in my mid 70s. Top shelf dog food only!

PPPS
Actually, that should be top shelf monkey chow.

1736883126555.png
 
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afoaf

Duke status
Jun 25, 2008
50,258
24,100
113
I've got my eyes on SOFI, HIMS, RKLB, ASTS, and grape's semiconductor ETF

might just take some out of the 401k and roll over to MS so I can buy individual securities

rejiggered my portfolio to an income-focused strategy while I'm between jobs...might be able to skate without work this year.
 

lruc

OTF status
Nov 10, 2016
316
387
63
sweet pop past i bought a decent chunk of RGTI @ a bit above $6 before traveling back from CR to death mountain america....as they say, milk the cow before she realizes its gone....
lol , it may see a deuce again before it prints 20 inmo.
 

Mr Doof

Duke status
Jan 23, 2002
25,803
9,377
113
San Francisco, CA
1737061165032.png


Die shorty, die!*

(Am guessing they made some bets that got margined called by the rising tide and found it better to get while the getting was good...or something.)



Link

Short-selling firm Hindenburg Research, which rose to national prominence uncovering fraud at EV startup Nikola (NKLA), said Wednesday it would wind down its operations.

"As I’ve shared with family, friends and our team since late last year, I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research," founder Nate Anderson wrote in a post on Wednesday. "The plan has been to wind up after we finished the pipeline of ideas we were working on. And as of the last Ponzi cases we just completed and are sharing with regulators, that day is today."

In 2024, Hindenburg uncovered what it said were accounting irregularities at data center company Super Micro Computer (SMCI), which was subsequently forced to delay the filing of some financial statements.**


* - I tease, I tease, but the naked shorters got to go.
** - Will be interesting to see if SMCI rises back to glory in coming months.
 
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Sharkbiscuit

Duke status
Aug 6, 2003
28,364
21,766
113
Jacksonville Beach
I googled last night to see if there was some way to invest in whatever America's target ad demo will use if TikTok ban goes through.

I saw something called RedNote, another entity out of China, and apparently Alibaba and Baidu or something kind of have some stake in that and that's the only way to invest.

Maybe Fakebook with the Instagram film clip bit? I don't really understand the distinction between sh!t like TikTok and SnapChat and even Vine.
 

Mr Doof

Duke status
Jan 23, 2002
25,803
9,377
113
San Francisco, CA
I googled last night to see if there was some way to invest in whatever America's target ad demo will use if TikTok ban goes through.

I saw something called RedNote, another entity out of China, and apparently Alibaba and Baidu or something kind of have some stake in that and that's the only way to invest.

Maybe Fakebook with the Instagram film clip bit? I don't really understand the distinction between sh!t like TikTok and SnapChat and even Vine.
I think Oracle stores the data for TikTok. Where would that go if ban goes through?

Perhaps there is a data angle to pursue, I mean, it has to be stored/accessed/maintained/powered/etc. somewhere, yes?

Probably low overhead costs once in place, and then long-term income?


All the semiconductor, data and robotics stonks are :beer: right now
I feel like a genius right now.

And this is where pride goes before the fall :p

Doof is wise
Hardly...this is me just repeating stuff I've read//heard over the years and since I am not destitute (as of right now), well, it sort of has been experimentally proven to work (for me).
 
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gbg

Miki Dora status
Jan 22, 2006
4,335
4,243
113
My 401K fund finished up 22% for 2024. It was up 26% at Thanksgiving but December was not good.