How’s the stock market?

grapedrink

Duke status
May 21, 2011
24,797
13,641
113
A Beach
Think 2008 for commercial, with further reaches.
How could it be any worse than 08? Subprime loans had almost zero equity in them, whereas most commercial loans start with 25-30% down, so the bank at least walks with something. 2008 was fine for those who had grown up jobs and didn't lose them.

Plenty of pension funds had MBS's in them as well. Most people in the private sector have 401Ks, which tend to be heavy on indexes and other blue chip funds, and they are encouraged transition to more bonds as they get closer to retirement.

Economic crises are often decades in the making and then ongoing.
any day now
 
  • Like
Reactions: Northern_Shores

casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
42,112
16,200
113
Petak Island
How could it be any worse than 08? Subprime loans had almost zero equity in them, whereas most commercial loans start with 25-30% down, so the bank at least walks with something. 2008 was fine for those who had grown up jobs and didn't lose them.

Plenty of pension funds had MBS's in them as well. Most people in the private sector have 401Ks, which tend to be heavy on indexes and other blue chip funds, and they are encouraged transition to more bonds as they get closer to retirement.
I'm sure there is someone here who can explain it off the cuff.

A ton of wealth is wrapped up in commercial.

Should be interesting when the bank owns a 20 story building that no one wants.

lol @ the people who think these places are going to be refurbished into housing.


any day now
It only took two decades for inflation to hit 100% in Argentina.

Funny, I can remember the exact conversation taking place when I lived there.
 

grapedrink

Duke status
May 21, 2011
24,797
13,641
113
A Beach
I'm sure there is someone here who can explain it off the cuff.

A ton of wealth is wrapped up in commercial.

Should be interesting when the bank owns a 20 story building that no one wants.
Like I said, I still don't see how this could be worse than 2008. Vast majority of home owning Americans had more wealth in their homes than elsewhere, which was a double whammy because it made some of them homeless afterwards. Losing household wealth is much more devastating to an economy than institutional wealth.

lol @ the people who think these places are going to be refurbished into housing.
Some of it can be. There is still a habitable zone around the perimeter adjacent to the windows. It's better than nothing.

It only took two decades for inflation to hit 100% in Argentina.
They also had a lot of other issues: Tying their currency to that of another country (USD), high import taxes, antagonistic to foreign investment, and other practices that were considered bad economic policy.

Which is not to say that we don't have bad policy here, however we tend to adhere to closer to sound economic fundamentals than Argentina did in the 90s.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Northern_Shores

Northern_Shores

Miki Dora status
Mar 30, 2009
4,326
4,113
113
I'm sure there is someone here who can explain it off the cuff.

A ton of wealth is wrapped up in commercial.

Should be interesting when the bank owns a 20 story building that no one wants.

lol @ the people who think these places are going to be refurbished into housing.




It only took two decades for inflation to hit 100% in Argentina.

Funny, I can remember the exact conversation taking place when I lived there.
Are you back to riding Roubini? :monkey:
 

PRCD

Tom Curren status
Feb 25, 2020
11,697
7,808
113
Like I said, I still don't see how this could be worse than 2008. Vast majority of home owning Americans had more wealth in their homes than elsewhere, which was a double whammy because it made some of them homeless afterwards. Losing household wealth is much more devastating to an economy than institutional wealth.


Some of it can be. There is still a habitable zone around the perimeter adjacent to the windows. It's better than nothing.


They also had a lot of other issues: Tying their currency to that of another country (USD), high import taxes, antagonistic to foreign investment, and other practices that were considered bad economic policy.

Which is not to say that we don't have bad policy here, however we tend to adhere to closer to sound economic fundamentals than Argentina did in the 90s.
The “economic fundamentals“ since 2009 have been MMT:

You‘re in probably the top 8-9% of earners in the US so you’re not feeling the pain at the pump, grocery store, energy bills, and rent. It turns out that we don’t have many tools to control inflation once we print money - interest rates are the main one and they have their own problems. Higher Interest rates cause the interest payments on public debt to skyrocket having downstream effects we’re discovering experimentally. Will this be like 2008? I don’t know but I know that MMT was the solution offered in 2008 and it sounds awfully similar to blowing up another bubble - a monetary one.
 
  • Like
Reactions: casa_mugrienta

PRCD

Tom Curren status
Feb 25, 2020
11,697
7,808
113
I don't think MMT is all bad so long as money supply is not added haphazardly. Which it has been.
The temptation to misuse it was always its fatal flaw. It sounds awfully similar to how the Roman Empire debased its currency of centuries to pay public debt and reward clients (like black rock) with the first access to capital.
If kept in check with productivity, there's really no need for the money supply to be backed by any other asset.
As long as worker total compensation keeps pace with productivity growth and costs stay low. Right now, the two (total compensation and costs) are badly out of balance for the bottom 3/5ths of wage earners while the top 2/5ths are accruing the benefits of productivity growth.
 

r32

Administrator
Staff member
Apr 1, 2005
17,272
8,273
113
Cambria
Anyone know how trials work for pharma startups?

Phase 1, 2, 3

Do the companies announce specific dates for the trials and/or specific dates for when the results will be announced?

I don't know much about this sector. Trying to find out when a company might announce their next findings or trial results. They are currently in phase 1/2.

And what does 1/2 mean? They started phase 2 and still testing phase 1? They are in-between?

1696275754566.png
 

Northern_Shores

Miki Dora status
Mar 30, 2009
4,326
4,113
113
Anyone know how trials work for pharma startups?

Phase 1, 2, 3

Do the companies announce specific dates for the trials and/or specific dates for when the results will be announced?

I don't know much about this sector. Trying to find out when a company might announce their next findings or trail results. They are currently in phase 1/2.

And what does 1/2 mean? They started phase 2 and still testing phase 1? They are in-between?

View attachment 163873
Most of the small pharma companies are scams/cash grabs. Pharma research is very expensive, takes a long time and has a very low success rate. I don't know the precentages, but very few makes it through the more advanced phases. Even if they get a drug into the market it has to compete with other alternatives/have sufficient demand. The end result is that most of them go bankrupt or the investors get diluted beyond repair even if they get a marketable drug.

Big evil pharma has probably 100s of drug leads they pursue and whatever doesn't work gets discarded and they come up with something new. All their previous knowledge also increases their probability of success. Similar to big oil companies like Exxon that drills 100s of wells. Many are dry, but they don't go bankrupt like a small oil company would after a few dry holes.

If these people were any good they'd be working for Pfizer making millions with no risk.

From all the other trash you have been posting about, small scale research done by people who don't know what they are doing is probably the way to go :roflmao:
 
Last edited:

r32

Administrator
Staff member
Apr 1, 2005
17,272
8,273
113
Cambria
Most of the small pharma companies are scams/cash grabs. Pharma research is very expensive, takes a long time and has a very low success rate. I don't know the precentages, but very few makes it through the more advanced phases. Even if they get a drug into the market it has to compete with other alternatives/have sufficient demand. The end result is that most of them go bankrupt or the investors get diluted beyond repair even if they get a marketable drug.

Big evil pharma has probably 100s of drug leads they pursue and whatever doesn't work gets discarded and they come up with something new. All their previous knowledge also increases their probability of success. Similar to big oil companies like Exxon that drills 100s of wells. Many are dry, but they don't go bankrupt like a small oil company would after a few dry holes.

If these people were any good they'd be working for Pfizer making millions with no risk.

From all the other trash you have been posting about, small scale research done by people who don't know what they are doing is probably the way to go :roflmao:
You don't have to like trash to make money from it. Failing companies provide opportunities as well.
 

Senor Sopa

Gerry Lopez status
Mar 11, 2015
1,327
2,090
113
Ponto
Anyone know how trials work for pharma startups?

Phase 1, 2, 3

Do the companies announce specific dates for the trials and/or specific dates for when the results will be announced?

I don't know much about this sector. Trying to find out when a company might announce their next findings or trial results. They are currently in phase 1/2.

And what does 1/2 mean? They started phase 2 and still testing phase 1? They are in-between?

View attachment 163873
They can announce dates, but things happen when they happen, especially results.

1/2 means partially phase 1, partially phase 2 trial.

Look at the market size served by the drug. Some are just so specific, they will never be profitable. Companies developing those are looking to get bought.
 

r32

Administrator
Staff member
Apr 1, 2005
17,272
8,273
113
Cambria
They can announce dates, but things happen when they happen, especially results.

1/2 means partially phase 1, partially phase 2 trial.

Look at the market size served by the drug. Some are just so specific, they will never be profitable. Companies developing those are looking to get bought.
Good info, thank you.

Not tried trading this wacko pharma stocks, but looking to see if there is some opportunity there, especially on the short side. Looking at all these pharm stocks they have huge run ups early, followed by long slow drag outs to $1 or lower. Some nice pump and dump action. But I know nothing of pharma world.
 

Northern_Shores

Miki Dora status
Mar 30, 2009
4,326
4,113
113
Stupid oil price going to sh!t over the weekly inventory report. Those numbers are never as expected. Add in some interest rate and recession fear to shave off $10 per barrel over the last few days. All my oil companies getting beat up :(
 

Sharkbiscuit

Duke status
Aug 6, 2003
24,781
17,488
113
Jacksonville Beach
Stupid oil price going to sh!t over the weekly inventory report. Those numbers are never as expected. Add in some interest rate and recession fear to shave off $10 per barrel over the last few days. All my oil companies getting beat up :(
Tell us you were just overweight the oil patch and had a sad. As if living in Norway isn't already basically being a petro-investor.

Please.

Please don't tell us you were leveraged and overweight a single-commodity-dependent sector and your Elbonian brokerage liquidated your portfolio before it got underwater.

Please.
 
  • Haha
Reactions: Mr Doof

Northern_Shores

Miki Dora status
Mar 30, 2009
4,326
4,113
113
Tell us you were just overweight the oil patch and had a sad. As if living in Norway isn't already basically being a petro-investor.

Please.

Please don't tell us you were leveraged and overweight a single-commodity-dependent sector and your Elbonian brokerage liquidated your portfolio before it got underwater.

Please.
Red days are giving me the sads. Especially after 4 months on the up :/
 
  • Like
Reactions: Sharkbiscuit

Mr Doof

Duke status
Jan 23, 2002
24,431
7,058
113
San Francisco, CA
Stupid oil price going to sh!t over the weekly inventory report. Those numbers are never as expected. Add in some interest rate and recession fear to shave off $10 per barrel over the last few days. All my oil companies getting beat up :(


Time to short against the box...if you have the huevos.

I don't.

1696452246375.png
 
  • Haha
Reactions: r32