How’s the stock market?

Northern_Shores

Miki Dora status
Mar 30, 2009
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Right - so the inflation-adjusted return is dependent on stable currency, hence our interest in inflation. You sound poor.

Taxes factor heavily into your real rate of return.
I have left the workforce to be my own Clown of Wall Street. Thank you for your concern.

All this inflation and currency crap you guys are on about, still there is money to be made. You can't do anything about the current conditions, but you can adapt to them. High inflation and interest rates are great for non-meme banks and insurance. Several other sectors are doing great too. There will never be all blue skies for investments, there is always some shitstorm brewing. Right now there is inflation and whatever else. Before that we had Covid. Even before that, Donald Trump and his retard buttmonkey Peter Navarro could have had us all broke by going at a trade war with China. That easily could have had the U.S/world GDP down by several percentage points and we would have been eating cold gravel for breakfast. Luckily the Chinese agreed to buy four cargoes of soy beans. BIG WIN!
When everyone is done whining about interest rates, there will be something else.
 

lruc

OTF status
Nov 10, 2016
227
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PJ , deposits are liability s on the balance sheet .Assets minus liability is book value .Book vale . Book value vs pe and yield gives you an idea of sentiment on Wall Street inmho .
 
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r32

Administrator
Staff member
Apr 1, 2005
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Lots of talk on social right now about DB might be next.

Deutsche Bank (DB) has outstanding derivatives of €37 trillion against total equity of €62 billion.

That is about 600X leverage.
 
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vanrysss

Billy Hamilton status
Mar 25, 2019
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from Oregon, now SD
Deutsche Bank (DB) has outstanding derivatives of €37 trillion against total equity of €62 billion.
Idk what kind of financial and mental gymnastics one needs to go through to make bets equal to twice the USA's GDP. All of those controls Reagan did away with need to come back.
 
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Northern_Shores

Miki Dora status
Mar 30, 2009
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Idk what kind of financial and mental gymnastics one needs to go through to make bets equal to twice the USA's GDP. All of those controls Reagan did away with need to come back.
Most, if not all, is hedged out the other way. The bank itself has no bet going on some currency or interest rate. They might have a swap fixed-floating and another one floating-fixed. "Zero" risk if they are on the same interest rate, but the total amount of derivatives they are involved in is massive. For a very short time I worked at the back office at an investment bank. Most swaps and other derivatives had something to do with Deutsche Bank and a few other ones.
 
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PRCD

Tom Curren status
Feb 25, 2020
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Idk what kind of financial and mental gymnastics one needs to go through to make bets equal to twice the USA's GDP. All of those controls Reagan did away with need to come back.
Reagan's policies from 40 years ago affect German banks today? Wow, what an inflexible and hopeless global system run by retards. So many other regulations have been added to other industries but a dead president continues to prevent any meaningful action on banking (and mental health care). He must have powers from beyond the grave.

I have left the workforce to be my own Clown of Wall Street. Thank you for your concern.
Those who aren't into index funds are either deluding themselves about their long-term rate of return or selling their delusion to their customers to live comfortably. Sounds like you might be in both categories. Personally, I want inflation to remain low because I am paid wages and can't hand my costs down to my customers. I also want my indexed rate of return to exceed inflation.
 
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hammies

Duke status
Apr 8, 2006
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Idk what kind of financial and mental gymnastics one needs to go through to make bets equal to twice the USA's GDP. All of those controls Reagan did away with need to come back.
I remember in 2008 the world was swimming in credit default swaps valued at more than the GDP of the whole planet.
Derivatives on derivatives on derivatives, nobody has the balls to prevent them from doing this because lobbyists and profits.

When the house of cards comes tumbling down the public takes it in the ass and the bankers never go to jail for their crimes.
There ought to be a law!
 
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brukuns

Kelly Slater status
Mar 5, 2014
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Brukus , prior to the 2000 to 08 blow up , Banks had a 10 x leverage rule . Graham had a bill that Clinton signed allowing them to go 50 x and compete with brokers . This brought the Cmo , CDO GNMA bloodbath . The Gunslingers of Wall Street engineered the financial products they peddled world wide .This is much different . Bloomberg is yapping about it right now .
I just posted a gif of a mandalorian, I was expecting a response around the same level.
 

Northern_Shores

Miki Dora status
Mar 30, 2009
4,487
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What do you guys want? Risk free 15% annual gains? :roflmao:
Can't get that. It's more like the 8% average of getting clobbered and shot to the moon.
 
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casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
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I don't see how you can disconnect capitalization requirements from bank runs. Isn't that precisely what capitalization requirements are designed to improve institution resiliency against?
I didn’t. I said, if I’m not mistaken, stress tests do not simulate bank runs.

What’s the alternative? Banks should be blocked from buying products from the US treasury (thought to be the most secure financial products on the planet)? What should the liquidity requirement be? Who decides what level of risk is acceptable?

Clearly the regulators - state and Fed - watching SVB were ineffective.
 
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Sharkbiscuit

Duke status
Aug 6, 2003
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I didn’t. I said, if I’m not mistaken, stress tests do not simulate bank runs.

What’s the alternative? Banks should be blocked from buying products from the US treasury (thought to be the most secure financial products on the planet)? What should the liquidity requirement be? Who decides what level of risk is acceptable?

Clearly the regulators - state and Fed - watching SVB were ineffective.
You said the following:
If the repeals in Dodd-Frank were about bank runs and banks vetting their depositor's sources of income you'd have a case.
The 2018 law exempted basically everything below a $250B asset threshold from Dodd-Frank. Don't capitalization requirements help mitigate the risk of bank runs?

I don't understand the bit out vetting their depositor's sources of income. Wouldn't they want to vet their debtor's sources of income? I mean if you already have the money and you're just depositing it, who gives a fuck?
 
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vanrysss

Billy Hamilton status
Mar 25, 2019
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I think the point he's trying to make is that SVB would have been fucked even if they met liquidity requirements. A cabal of VCs sh!t their pants and told the companies they invest in to pull everything. That's abnormal, and not something liquidity requirements are designed to address as far as I understand.