How’s the stock market?

Sharkbiscuit

Duke status
Aug 6, 2003
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He also said "there is no inflation" "inflation is transient" and "soft landing".

Makes total sense he would now try to put out a fire with gasoline. Right? lolz
I am inclined to think soft landing might be over-optimistic, but it hasn't played out yet one way or the other.

Raising rates, cutting rates, or doing nothing other than jacking off to Linzie Janis and Kayla Tausche keeping CNBC beautiful are part and parcel of his job description. He said he was going to hike. Goldman thinks he'll pause hikes. Everyone else thinks he'll hike next week.

Please excuse me if I don't take your word for it on this one prior to a well-telegraphed cut actually happening.

 

vanrysss

Billy Hamilton status
Mar 25, 2019
1,639
3,689
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from Oregon, now SD
Just curious - all of you that think the Fed is going to keep hiking - why do you believe this knowing that the Fed will just be causing more bank losses by doing so thus creating additional problems?
The Fed knows what is on banks' balance sheets. So while they may not have been able to predict that a bank run would happen they definitely knew that these bonds wouldn't be resalable. My bet is that the fed sees pressure on the stock market and banking system as an unavoidable side-effect of reducing inflation. If the only casualties are bank that went heavy on crypto and another that lent money to companies making $400 juicers then that's within acceptable bounds. Given that the Fed is lender of last resort to banks, and has a way to provide them with liquidity in exchange for assets why do you think they'd stop hiking rates?


This as BTFP is basically QE.
I don't see how collateralized loans with a 1 year term and 4.68% interest are equivalent to QE.
The additional funding will be made available through the creation of a new Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), offering loans of up to one year in length to banks, savings associations, credit unions, and other eligible depository institutions pledging U.S. Treasuries, agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, and other qualifying assets as collateral. These assets will be valued at par. The BTFP will be an additional source of liquidity against high-quality securities, eliminating an institution's need to quickly sell those securities in times of stress.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312a.htm


I don't work in finance or keep much of an eye on wall street so treat my stance as mostly uninformed conjecture.
 

casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
43,808
18,363
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Petak Island
The Fed knows what is on banks' balance sheets. So while they may not have been able to predict that a bank run would happen they definitely knew that these bonds wouldn't be resalable. My bet is that the fed sees pressure on the stock market and banking system as an unavoidable side-effect of reducing inflation. If the only casualties are bank that went heavy on crypto and another that lent money to companies making $400 juicers then that's within acceptable bounds. Given that the Fed is lender of last resort to banks, and has a way to provide them with liquidity in exchange for assets why do you think they'd stop hiking rates?
Because rate hikes are what caused this crisis in the first place.

Further rate hikes will cause further trauma to banks, further stimulating the need for liquidity, and when the Fed provides the liquidity it creates inflation.

I don't see how collateralized loans with a 1 year term and 4.68% interest are equivalent to QE.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312a.htm


I don't work in finance or keep much of an eye on wall street so treat my stance as mostly uninformed conjecture.
The FDIC 250K limit has been wiped and the FDIC is now broke. The Fed, with a balance sheet of $8 trillion, will now provide liquidity for up to $19 trillion in deposits.

Bank withdrawls have been on an accelerating trend as depositors look to more desirable places to stash their cash. A bunch of banks holding a bunch of low-yielding bonds were having to hold firesales to meet the needs of depositors wanting to withdraw cash.

Banks were already sitting on billions+ of unrealized losses at the end of 2022, and they continue to sit on a bunch of assets that have lost value as rates have increased and depositors want their money.

So the Fed has stepped in and offered to buy up the below par assets at par, thus providing liquidity.

The Fed creates the money to swap the below par asset at par. This is QE, just in a different package.
 

PJ

Gerry Lopez status
Jan 27, 2002
1,027
739
113
Shrub Oak,N.Y.,USA
Just watched Jim Cramer advocate for Congress to implement price controls to cotnrol inflation. lol. Told ya!

Sigh.
I've picked up some chatter on possible wage/price controls too. So is this the Volcker moment and then back to what was it, 1972, with Nixon on TV about wage and price controls all the time - when a can of Chock Full O Nuts coffee was $4.50 and my mom was practically gagging on that price at the supermarket? Then we have to wait 10 years until 1982 to get a good turn around?

Sigh.
 

Northern_Shores

Miki Dora status
Mar 30, 2009
4,530
4,466
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Just watched Jim Cramer advocate for Congress to implement price controls to cotnrol inflation. lol. Told ya!

Also, news today that SVB donated $74,000,000 to Black Lives Matter and "related causes"...but couldn't cover their depositors.

Sigh.
Funny how some money people are quick to turn full Hugo Chavez at the slightest market turmoil. Times like these are why markets are great. Price control and all sorts of communist ideas are just poverty traps. Many countries have these systems and they are all dirt poor.

 
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hammies

Duke status
Apr 8, 2006
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My wife asked me about how inflated asset valuation is important and I said, "Imagine if you are a bank and you say you have 10 billon dollars worth of assets to back up your deposits (which you have loaned out). Now imagine if that $10B is in Trump-owned real estate, and the actual value was only half of what Trump said it was."

She got the idea.
 

Sharkbiscuit

Duke status
Aug 6, 2003
26,766
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Jacksonville Beach
Funny how some money people are quick to turn full Hugo Chavez at the slightest market turmoil. Times like these are why markets are great. Price control and all sorts of communist ideas are just poverty traps. Many countries have these systems and they are all dirt poor.

Holy sh!t your entire fucking dump is collectively teat-latched to the thick black milk and you dare speak to American Patriots about communism? Uppity fucking PetroSwede.

 

INDTUBE

Legend (inyourownmind)
Nov 6, 2019
359
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Anyone starting to see the cracks in the damn - I have been saying for a year now on this site that Q1/Q2 were going to be one of the worst market corrections in my lifetime - while we are not there yet - things are starting to move in that direction. The Fed is trapped between the mandated 2-3% inflation rate goals and killing the economy. This will not end well.
 

Northern_Shores

Miki Dora status
Mar 30, 2009
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Holy sh!t your entire fucking dump is collectively teat-latched to the thick black milk and you dare speak to American Patriots about communism? Uppity fucking PetroSwede.

Speaking of dump, I just got an e-mail from the government telling me I can apply for a $1500 grant to get a heat pump for my dump a.k.a the rat castle. Nice end to a day that had me clobbered for $9k thanks to those woke BLM loving cuиts at SVB.
 

SlicedFeet

Miki Dora status
Dec 17, 2004
4,754
991
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Swarm Diego
Because rate hikes are what caused this crisis in the first place.

Further rate hikes will cause further trauma to banks, further stimulating the need for liquidity, and when the Fed provides the liquidity it creates inflation.
This is not what caused this crisis. This crisis has been in the making for the past 10 years or so with interest rates remaining around ZERO for that 10 year period. That was insane! (Crypto was a massive benefactor of this - investors were looking for returns.)

Other benefactors of this were business getting free money and going on hiring extravaganzas. (Politicians loved this). Real Estate went through the roof with people buying second, third homes and doing AirBnb's. (Great for construction/manufacturing/and the RE market - Detrimental to the middle class though). And good for the equity market - only place to park money for returns.

We just witnessed the roaring aughts and early 20's - hope you had a good time, are debt free, and are not leveraged going forward.

A War Economy is the only thing that will right this listing ship...and then we have to deal with demographics that is going to be the real knock out punch. The baby boomer population is starting to check out. Real estate will never be what it once was...The coming pain in housing will be hell on earth in America for a solid generation. Never Fight Demographics.
 

Sharkbiscuit

Duke status
Aug 6, 2003
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The baby boomer population is starting to check out. Real estate will never be what it once was...The coming pain in housing will be hell on earth in America for a solid generation. Never Fight Demographics.
Does the coming pain in housing mean people who just signed up for 30 years high rate/high price are fucked by impending decline/correction, or does it mean housing prices are going to continue upwards trajectory?
 

vanrysss

Billy Hamilton status
Mar 25, 2019
1,639
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from Oregon, now SD
Real estate will never be what it once was...The coming pain in housing will be hell on earth in America for a solid generation. Never Fight Demographics.
When you say pain do you mean Gen Z and Millenials will actually be able to afford to buy a house in a desirable area? Shaving about 50% off west coast housing prices would be wonderful thanks.
 

SlicedFeet

Miki Dora status
Dec 17, 2004
4,754
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Swarm Diego
Does the coming pain in housing mean people who just signed up for 30 years high rate/high price are fucked by impending decline/correction, or does it mean housing prices are going to continue upwards trajectory?
If you plan on staying in your location for awhile or permanently, I'd say it is always smart to buy. You won't loose.

The people that will have their perspectives re-arranged eventually, are the speculators and airbnbr's. What population group do they expect to buy their house in the future? The numbers aren't there, and all the new people coming across the border, do you think they have the means to buy $2M house just east of the 405/5?


When I bought my house, rates were 7 percent, 20 percent down - Standard fair at the time...for a reason :)
 
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