How’s the stock market?

casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
38,136
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:roflmao:
You have no clue what you are talking about. it’s actually the best thing for the most time tested strategy that often outperforms professional traders- plain old set it and forget it vanilla index funds. I’d rather DCA through 5-10 years of doldrums than a 5-10 year bull market. I will get more growth and returns long term out of the stocks I purchased during the down years.
Once again, you assume the last 20 years are "normal" when they are anything but. It permeates your entire view.

Will I be DCAing index funds? Yeah, unless better options present.

But if the market stays flaccid in an inflationary decade - a very good possibility - and the dollar sees a decline as a reserve (likely) - this will affect retirement portfolios for the worst.
 

Northern_Shores

Michael Peterson status
Mar 30, 2009
3,441
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I'm getting clobbered! Still, I'm not shook. I just keep buying the dip. When everyone else has gone off and hanged themselves, I'll be the last one standing, pockets stashed full of stonkers! Then the money-sun will rise again and I will reap the rewards, basking in dividends and beautiful gains.
 

grapedrink

Duke status
May 21, 2011
20,868
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A Beach
Once again, you assume the last 20 years are "normal" when they are anything but
2000-10 was basically a doldrum for the SP500. Anyone who invested consistently through those years will have greater returns than that same amount of money invested from 2010-20. That is the point I was replying to, which you are 100% wrong about because passive investors with a long time horizon will always be better off buying at a lower price. The downturns are bad for the pros and those who are very close to retiring, but even then if they allocated to mostly bonds (like they are told to do, hopefully) and can stretch out disbursements during the rebound they should be fine.

It permeates your entire view.
My entire view is based on literally a century+ of historical data where you can pick any 20 year time span and show a several fold gain in value that exceeds the prevailing savings rate. https://www.officialdata.org/us/stocks/s-p-500/1930?amount=1000&endYear=1950

There was nothing normal about WW1, the Great Depression, WW2, the 70s/80s recession, Dot Com bust, 9/11, the Subprime mortgage crisis, or Covid either. Bad times happen, but overtime the this strategy prevails because of compounding interest and the way that the SP500 self corrects by dropping duds that fall out of the 500 and taking on the growing companies that replace them.

Meanwhile, your entire economic view is based on doom and gloom. You are the perpetual doomsayer who gets to say “I told you do” when they are finally right after 5+ years of growth.

Will I be DCAing index funds? Yeah, unless better options present.
Exactly my point, unless we go back to 5-10% savings rates.

But if the market stays flaccid in an inflationary decade - a very good possibility - and the dollar sees a decline as a reserve (likely) - this will affect retirement portfolios for the worst.
Like I said, if you are a few decades away from retirement age the next decade will serve you better in the long run than a bull market. This is basic math.
 

casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
38,136
12,362
113
Petak Island
2000-10 was basically a doldrum for the SP500. Anyone who invested consistently through those years will have greater returns than that same amount of money invested from 2010-20. That is the point I was replying to, which you are 100% wrong about because passive investors with a long time horizon will always be better off buying at a lower price. The downturns are bad for the pros and those who are very close to retiring, but even then if they allocated to mostly bonds (like they are told to do, hopefully) and can stretch out disbursements during the rebound they should be fine.


My entire view is based on literally a century+ of historical data where you can pick any 20 year time span and show a several fold gain in value that exceeds the prevailing savings rate. https://www.officialdata.org/us/stocks/s-p-500/1930?amount=1000&endYear=1950

There was nothing normal about WW1, the Great Depression, WW2, the 70s/80s recession, Dot Com bust, 9/11, the Subprime mortgage crisis, or Covid either. Bad times happen, but overtime the this strategy prevails because of compounding interest and the way that the SP500 self corrects by dropping duds that fall out of the 500 and taking on the growing companies that replace them.

Meanwhile, your entire economic view is based on doom and gloom. You are the perpetual doomsayer who gets to say “I told you do” when they are finally right after 5+ years of growth.


Exactly my point, unless we go back to 5-10% savings rates.


Like I said, if you are a few decades away from retirement age the next decade will serve you better in the long run than a bull market. This is basic math.
I'm not disagreeing.

I'm just laughing at market optimism/denial here over the past months and people getting yanked into a fool's rally.

You're saying I'm a doom and gloomer because I'm heeding (obvious) economic warning signs.
 

grapedrink

Duke status
May 21, 2011
20,868
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A Beach
I'm not disagreeing.

I'm just laughing at market optimism/denial here over the past months and people getting yanked into a fool's rally.
That’s not what I’m doing. I have a long term view, so I don’t get excited or worried about the short term ups and downs. Like I said, I’d rather invest through a sideways decade than the last one.

You're saying I'm a doom and gloomer because I'm heeding (obvious) economic warning signs.
No, I’m saying that because I’ve seen your posts here over the years and they all have the same tone. Like when you bought your condo at the “top of the market” :roflmao:
 
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Northern_Shores

Michael Peterson status
Mar 30, 2009
3,441
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It's not funny anymore. I try to be strong, but it's hard getting beat up week after week. All my companies are making good money, but still they get smoked.
 

casa_mugrienta

Duke status
Apr 13, 2008
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Petak Island
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PRCD

Kelly Slater status
Feb 25, 2020
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wow thanks Obama. If you're not throwing yourself out of a high rise, plan on it. I'll PM you a shipping address for your boards.
 
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